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  1. #51
    Date d'inscription
    septembre 2013
    Messages
    182
    Citation Envoyé par Al. Voir le message
    HoG and Meluniel are baddies been bad.

    Saruman was a wizard and he didn't forsee ents would rebel against him, or theoden recovery or rophirrim mustering forces he knew they had....

    Saruman is the worst tactician along with Sauron.
    To assume that simply because a person lost they are a bad traction is a logical fallacy. Sometimes losing means only that, you lost, and it does not matter how great your plans were. Now if you want to talk about those plans I am more then happy to.


    • You are right. Saruman should have seen the Ents. He should have added them to his plans. Failing to do so was a big, huge, massive mistake. And he falls partly because he did not take account of them. So I wholly and completely agree with you there.
    • Theoden's recovery and everything that happens because of it; the muster at Edoras, their arrival at the Hornburg ext. ext, all has one source and that is Gandalf. Gandalf's return from death was unforeseeable. No one expected that, nor can we blame them for not doing so.
    • As for the events after that, the Rohirrim leaving Edoras ext. Saruman is not omniscient, he does not know everything. So there are really only two ways he could have known that Theoden had been restored and was now riding west.


    1. The palantír. We know that Saruman had one, and that he had used it in the past. So it is possible that he could have seen the events in Edoras shortly after they had happened. There are some problems with this idea though. First the palantíri seem to be under Sauron's control. But the bigger issue is that Tolkien never specificity states, unless I have forgot about it and it has been a while since I last ready the History of Middle-Earth and some of his other works, that Saruman ever saw anything like this, or that we even used the palantír at that moment. So we move on to the more probable way Saruman would have learned of those events.
    2. Grima. Grima would have brought word of what happened when he fled Edoras. The issue here though is that he arrives after the Ents have all but destroyed Isenguard, and thus after Saruman's armies had left.


    So what conclusions can we come to based on this? A few I think.


    1. When Saruman sends out his armies for all he knows Theoden is still his puppet in Edoras. Saruman's armies can sweep across the Westfold either destroying or taking the Hornburg and then make a full attack on Edoras to completely wipe out Rohan.
    2. The knowledge that Theoden is in fact well again and on his way west comes to late for Saruman to with hold his armies.
    3. Saruman though not knowing of Theoden makes a huge mistake by leaving the Ents out of his plans.
    4. Conclusion. Saruman's fall was as I said before a combination of his own lack of foresight and the intervention of "Fate"

  2. #52
    Date d'inscription
    octobre 2012
    Messages
    150
    Citation Envoyé par Al. Voir le message
    Saruman is the worst tactician along with Sauron.
    Picking nits only for the sake of clarity, I'll point out that these details are elements of strategy, not tactics. Even so, I will concede that the two are often inextricably inter-reliant: incorporating seizure of the Hornburg into his overall strategy was possible for Saruman only because the tactics that he intended his commanders to employ made the operation feasible.

    Otherwise, this conclusion of Al's loses a little of the 'true meaning', if only because there has been too much emphasis on scrutiny of the mechanics: Saruman's strategy was precise, and well-conceived, incorporating technologically-innovative tactics that should have proven both ruthless and decisively-effective; Saruman's actual error, the one that demonstrated the folly of his villainous hubris, was simply to fail to hold back adequate operational and strategic reserves; when he emptied Isengard, he threw 'all of his eggs into one basket', and it was that one, simple, mistake that cost him the war.

    HoG

  3. #53
    Date d'inscription
    juin 2011
    Messages
    1 864
    Citation Envoyé par Harper_of_Gondolin Voir le message
    Picking nits only for the sake of clarity, I'll point out that these details are elements of strategy, not tactics. Even so, I will concede that the two are often inextricably inter-reliant: incorporating seizure of the Hornburg into his overall strategy was possible for Saruman only because the tactics that he intended his commanders to employ made the operation feasible.

    Otherwise, this conclusion of Al's loses a little of the 'true meaning', if only because there has been too much emphasis on scrutiny of the mechanics: Saruman's strategy was precise, and well-conceived, incorporating technologically-innovative tactics that should have proven both ruthless and decisively-effective; Saruman's actual error, the one that demonstrated the folly of his villainous hubris, was simply to fail to hold back adequate operational and strategic reserves; when he emptied Isengard, he threw 'all of his eggs into one basket', and it was that one, simple, mistake that cost him the war.

    HoG
    Well, the question is then if 10,000 uruks + what, 6-7,000 Dunlendings would have stood against the Huorns and Ents - I'd guess the Huorns@Helms Deep would have joined for Isengard had Saruman not attacked the Hornburg?

  4. #54
    Date d'inscription
    juin 2010
    Messages
    1 034
    Citation Envoyé par Harper_of_Gondolin Voir le message
    Picking nits only for the sake of clarity, I'll point out that these details are elements of strategy, not tactics. Even so, I will concede that the two are often inextricably inter-reliant: incorporating seizure of the Hornburg into his overall strategy was possible for Saruman only because the tactics that he intended his commanders to employ made the operation feasible.

    Otherwise, this conclusion of Al's loses a little of the 'true meaning', if only because there has been too much emphasis on scrutiny of the mechanics: Saruman's strategy was precise, and well-conceived, incorporating technologically-innovative tactics that should have proven both ruthless and decisively-effective; Saruman's actual error, the one that demonstrated the folly of his villainous hubris, was simply to fail to hold back adequate operational and strategic reserves; when he emptied Isengard, he threw 'all of his eggs into one basket', and it was that one, simple, mistake that cost him the war.

    HoG
    The thing is, the only actual error you pin-point on Saruman is using ruthless tactics, which is not True.

    Saruman made a series of mistakes, which you call "miracles" of the heros, those are for the well trained captain defining, for example Ents which you consider "angry trees deus ex-machina" that is not correct, in the world Saruman lives in Ents exist, act and do things and he knew it when he chopped down the huorns, he made a mistake that cost him his base.

    Deus-Ex Machina only works when something "pops from nowhere" for the plot, Ents are not Deus Ex-Machina they are a subplot of the ongoing war.

  5. #55
    Date d'inscription
    octobre 2012
    Messages
    150
    Meluihel, I agree with most everything. However ...

    Citation Envoyé par Meluihel Voir le message
    Gandalf's return from death was unforeseeable. No one expected that, nor can we blame them for not doing so.
    Well, gee, Saruman had no way of knowing that Gandalf had died in the first place ... From the balcony of Orthanc, his sneering disdain for Gandalf, deliberately attempting only to conceal his own dismay and confusion, only shatters when he notices that Gandalf is wearing white.

    If you intend to say something like, 'Saruman had no reason to expect that Gandalf would/could intervene (he and Théoden were estranged), and that his intervention would be a game-changer', then I whole-heartedly agree.

    Citation Envoyé par Meluihel Voir le message
    [*]The palantír. We know that Saruman had one, and that he had used it in the past. So it is possible that he could have seen the events in Edoras shortly after they had happened. There are some problems with this idea though. First the palantíri seem to be under Sauron's control....
    In fact, Saruman was already far 'past the point of no return' in his schemes to betray Sauron (he had already instructed his White-Hand Uruks to defy the Uruks of Mordor: "Hobbits to Isengard, no spoiling!"): he couldn't use the palantir (remember the beginning of Pippin's account, "why have you taken so long to report?").

    And, yes, I do agree with your conclusions alluding to the roles of both hubris and 'Fate'.

    HoG

  6. #56
    Date d'inscription
    juin 2010
    Messages
    1 034
    HoG and Meluniel forgetting this:

    • Grima as source for Saruman knowledge of events in Edoras
    • Palantir to use, mainly to see distant lands and other uses explained in the Unfinished tales, which he didn't use.
    • Saruman lack of tactical thinking when he chopped down surroundings of Isengard
    • Dunledings and events of Dunland as an advantage he didnt use...and so on

  7. #57
    Date d'inscription
    octobre 2012
    Messages
    150
    Citation Envoyé par Al. Voir le message
    Deus-Ex Machina only works when something "pops from nowhere" for the plot, Ents are not Deus Ex-Machina they are a subplot of the ongoing war.
    Only after Merry and Pippin escape into Fangorn Forest and, of all things!, have a talk with Treebeard: consider,


    1. Merry and Pippin ran off wildly from the campsite and end up with Boromir, whose challenging horn summons no help, only the attention of every Orc within 10 miles ...

    2. The hobbits are captured, but White-Hand Uruks imposed their dominance upon the Mordor Orcs, and carried the hobbits away towards Isengard (following Saruman's orders!)

    3. A single Mordor Orc, looking only to further his own advantage, carried Merry and Pippin away from the battle (in which they would have most-assuredly died, either murdered by the orcs, or trampled by the steeds of Eomer's eored)

    4. Merry and Pippin, coincidentally and obliviously, in a forest measuring more than 10 000 square miles, somehow 'found' Treebeard's lap to sit upon ...

    5. Merry and Pippin turned out to be creatures that were 'not on The List': without Treebeard's curiosity, he would have squashed them, or simply ignored them; they would never have spoken with him.

    6. Merry and Pippin were actually in possession of information that would 'wake the Ents up', and make them think of their own peril, and investigate the danger Saruman (thereto considered a friend) perhaps, after all, presented.

    7. Either Saruman, or his servants had been 'excessively reckless' in their abuse of the forest, and thereby provided the Ents with sufficient evidence to move them to declare war


    The chain of absolutely-inconceivable events that bring the Ents into the war is, well, inconceivable. IIRC, Gandalf actually commented on this, after being reunited with the three hunters.

    Start flipping a coin: get back to me when you flip 'heads' 7 times in a row.

    HoG

  8. #58
    Date d'inscription
    octobre 2012
    Messages
    150
    Citation Envoyé par Elrantiri Voir le message
    Well, the question is then if 10,000 uruks + what, 6-7,000 Dunlendings would have stood against the Huorns and Ents - I'd guess the Huorns@Helms Deep would have joined for Isengard had Saruman not attacked the Hornburg?
    I must confess that I am not sure what you are asking, or suggesting, if the latter is the case.

    So, I'll say,

    Each and every Dunlending would have broken ranks and fled as soon as anyone saw trees walking, not to mention, trees bashing peoples' heads in: their quarrel was with the forgoil of Rohan, not with angry legends out of ancient folklore. I imagine that many of the Uruk-hai would be less-impressed, and would dare to offer battle, and woe to the Ents ...

    The huorns that Gandalf collected had been among the main Ent-force that had already destroyed Isengard: it was within the destroyed ring of Isengard that Gandalf had submitted his plea to Treebeard.

    Otherwise, were there any operational reserves, they could have flanked and intercepted Erkenbrand, and perhaps prevented the rout at Helm's Deep; strategic reserves could have delayed the Ents from destroying 'Saruman HQ', perhaps permitting Saruman to issue orders to pull his assault force away from its objective (and maybe back to Isengard, to maybe annihilate the Ents).

    As events transpired, the whole of Saruman's massive army was, itself, annihilated, and virtually overnight.

    HoG

  9. #59
    Date d'inscription
    juin 2010
    Messages
    1 034
    Citation Envoyé par Harper_of_Gondolin Voir le message
    Only after Merry and Pippin escape into Fangorn Forest and, of all things!, have a talk with Treebeard: consider,


    1. Merry and Pippin ran off wildly from the campsite and end up with Boromir, whose challenging horn summons no help, only the attention of every Orc within 10 miles ...

    2. The hobbits are captured, but White-Hand Uruks imposed their dominance upon the Mordor Orcs, and carried the hobbits away towards Isengard (following Saruman's orders!)

    3. A single Mordor Orc, looking only to further his own advantage, carried Merry and Pippin away from the battle (in which they would have most-assuredly died, either murdered by the orcs, or trampled by the steeds of Eomer's eored)

    4. Merry and Pippin, coincidentally and obliviously, in a forest measuring more than 10 000 square miles, somehow 'found' Treebeard's lap to sit upon ...

    5. Merry and Pippin turned out to be creatures that were 'not on The List': without Treebeard's curiosity, he would have squashed them, or simply ignored them; they would never have spoken with him.

    6. Merry and Pippin were actually in possession of information that would 'wake the Ents up', and make them think of their own peril, and investigate the danger Saruman (thereto considered a friend) perhaps, after all, presented.

    7. Either Saruman, or his servants had been 'excessively reckless' in their abuse of the forest, and thereby provided the Ents with sufficient evidence to move them to declare war


    The chain of absolutely-inconceivable events that bring the Ents into the war is, well, inconceivable. IIRC, Gandalf actually commented on this, after being reunited with the three hunters.

    Start flipping a coin: get back to me when you flip 'heads' 7 times in a row.

    HoG
    All the things you mention are circusmtantial, not Deus Ex-Machina as you claim.

  10. #60
    Date d'inscription
    juin 2010
    Messages
    1 034
    Citation Envoyé par Harper_of_Gondolin Voir le message
    I must confess that I am not sure what you are asking, or suggesting, if the latter is the case.

    So, I'll say,

    Each and every Dunlending would have broken ranks and fled as soon as anyone saw trees walking, not to mention, trees bashing peoples' heads in: their quarrel was with the forgoil of Rohan, not with angry legends out of ancient folklore. I imagine that many of the Uruk-hai would be less-impressed, and would dare to offer battle, and woe to the Ents ...

    The huorns that Gandalf collected had been among the main Ent-force that had already destroyed Isengard: it was within the destroyed ring of Isengard that Gandalf had submitted his plea to Treebeard.

    Otherwise, were there any operational reserves, they could have flanked and intercepted Erkenbrand, and perhaps prevented the rout at Helm's Deep; strategic reserves could have delayed the Ents from destroying 'Saruman HQ', perhaps permitting Saruman to issue orders to pull his assault force away from its objective (and maybe back to Isengard, to maybe annihilate the Ents).

    As events transpired, the whole of Saruman's massive army was, itself, annihilated, and virtually overnight.

    HoG
    That's the book, but you overlook details like Saruman pissing off the Ents, trusting noone except his most loyal men in isengard (Kind of dumb considering you army is Uruk-hai), next Ents intervention was possible thanks to careful planning that took ents a very long time....

    Saruman lacked timing, lacked tactical thinking and was overconfident captain that sat on his tower instead of actually going in the battle mustering his troops, again a mistake.

  11. #61
    Date d'inscription
    juin 2011
    Messages
    1 864
    Citation Envoyé par Harper_of_Gondolin Voir le message
    I must confess that I am not sure what you are asking, or suggesting, if the latter is the case.

    So, I'll say,

    Each and every Dunlending would have broken ranks and fled as soon as anyone saw trees walking, not to mention, trees bashing peoples' heads in: their quarrel was with the forgoil of Rohan, not with angry legends out of ancient folklore. I imagine that many of the Uruk-hai would be less-impressed, and would dare to offer battle, and woe to the Ents ...

    The huorns that Gandalf collected had been among the main Ent-force that had already destroyed Isengard: it was within the destroyed ring of Isengard that Gandalf had submitted his plea to Treebeard.

    Otherwise, were there any operational reserves, they could have flanked and intercepted Erkenbrand, and perhaps prevented the rout at Helm's Deep; strategic reserves could have delayed the Ents from destroying 'Saruman HQ', perhaps permitting Saruman to issue orders to pull his assault force away from its objective (and maybe back to Isengard, to maybe annihilate the Ents).

    As events transpired, the whole of Saruman's massive army was, itself, annihilated, and virtually overnight.

    HoG
    It was mostly towards your "putting all eggs in one basket" attack on the Hornburg, but what I wonder is if it'd make any difference, if the Huorn army would have wiped out the Uruk army even if Saruman knew of the Huorns coming and either used his army to defend Isengard or even assault the Huorns and perhaps after that attack Rohan. That if Saruman knew of the Huorns coming, would he have been able to do anything about it?

  12. #62
    Date d'inscription
    octobre 2012
    Messages
    150
    Citation Envoyé par Elrantiri Voir le message
    It was mostly towards your "putting all eggs in one basket" attack on the Hornburg, but what I wonder is if it'd make any difference, if the Huorn army would have wiped out the Uruk army even if Saruman knew of the Huorns coming and either used his army to defend Isengard or even assault the Huorns and perhaps after that attack Rohan. That if Saruman knew of the Huorns coming, would he have been able to do anything about it?
    Who can say, beyond, even if it had still turned out badly for Saruman, it likely would have been disastrous for the Ents? IMHO, Saruman's instruments of fire would have been critical: once the forest-army's weakness to such things had become apparent, 10 000 Uruk-hai, with renewed confidence in the power of their master, would inflict a lot of carnage ...

    In any event, Saruman had deprived himself of any opportunity to find out.

    HoG

  13. #63
    Date d'inscription
    octobre 2012
    Messages
    150
    Citation Envoyé par Al. Voir le message
    ... you overlook details like Saruman pissing off the Ents ....
    No, I don't: I already listed the 7-impossible-steps that led to the Ents joining the war.

    BTW, no Ent had gone to war for more than five thousand years (to avenge the sack of Menegroth and the murder of Elu Thingol, and perhaps even that only after pleas from Beren and Luthien); naturally, Saruman had never considered the Ents to present any threat.

    HoG

  14. #64
    Date d'inscription
    juin 2010
    Messages
    1 034
    Citation Envoyé par Harper_of_Gondolin Voir le message
    No, I don't: I already listed the 7-impossible-steps that led to the Ents joining the war.

    BTW, no Ent had gone to war for more than five thousand years (to avenge the sack of Menegroth and the murder of Elu Thingol, and perhaps even that only after pleas from Beren and Luthien); naturally, Saruman had never considered the Ents to present any threat.

    HoG
    Naturally a mistake.

    Underestimating an opponent is mistake in war.

  15. #65
    Date d'inscription
    juin 2011
    Messages
    373
    I think that overlooking an opponent who hadn't gone to war in five thousand years seems doesn't seem like much of a mistake. It's like finding out the rules had changed after you toss the dice.

  16. #66
    Date d'inscription
    octobre 2012
    Messages
    150
    Citation Envoyé par Al. Voir le message
    Naturally a mistake [to not consider the wrath of walking trees when one makes any decision].
    Then I fully expect that you will never make this mistake, yourself.

    So, you will not leave your home, you will not post in the forums here, you will not eat, tie shoelaces, bathe, or even sleep, lest you provoke the wrath of the walking trees.

    I admire your convictions and your courage, and I place my full confidence behind your decision. Even though I am sure that it will not be necessary, I wish you luck.

    HoG

  17. #67
    Date d'inscription
    juin 2010
    Messages
    1 034
    Citation Envoyé par MathKnight Voir le message
    I think that overlooking an opponent who hadn't gone to war in five thousand years seems doesn't seem like much of a mistake. It's like finding out the rules had changed after you toss the dice.
    Its a mistake and I'll explain why:

    Ents not going in war for five thousand years, which by the way were unprovoked for all that time, now Saruman knew ents and how they thrived in Fangorn forest chopping down the forest would cause:

    • Ents to be angry
    • Ents to stay the same
    • Ents to flee


    Saruman's choice: The Wrong one

    Noone changed the rules, its the same ruleset just like ancient times, you like piss someone off you have to deal with his possible results.

  18. #68
    Date d'inscription
    juin 2011
    Localisation
    Memory of Laurelin
    Messages
    1 228
    Citation Envoyé par Al. Voir le message
    Noone changed the rules, its the same ruleset just like ancient times, you like piss someone off you have to deal with his possible results.
    Just throwing it out there... How well was Saruman aware of how the Ents fared in the Third Age?

    As an aside... there was quite lot of 'couldn't see that one coming' happening, in 3018, 3019. Before, too, but... well, methinks Éomer put it best: "These are indeed strange days ... dreams and legends spring to life out of the grass."

  19. #69
    Date d'inscription
    juin 2011
    Messages
    373
    It is the year 2016, and all the oil has been reclaimed by the ancient masters of the world, the reptile men. Though they had been in slumber for millenia, in retrospect it was obvious that drilling for oil would awaken their wrath. We huddled masses still surviving under their rule could only shudder at our foolishness in presuming to use the rich natural resources around us. We pray they will return to their millenia long slumber, having cast down our tallest towers. If only we could go back in time, stop the drilling, end the madness before it began. The signs were there: the shaking of the earth, the gradual warming of the atmosphere. Fools we were! Fools and dullards.

  20. #70
    Date d'inscription
    septembre 2013
    Messages
    182
    Citation Envoyé par Daeross Voir le message
    Just throwing it out there... How well was Saruman aware of how the Ents fared in the Third Age?

    As an aside... there was quite lot of 'couldn't see that one coming' happening, in 3018, 3019. Before, too, but... well, methinks Éomer put it best: "These are indeed strange days ... dreams and legends spring to life out of the grass."
    Well said. It is easy to see things happen and understand why after the fact. Seeing them before however is... much more of a challenge.

  21. #71
    Date d'inscription
    juin 2010
    Messages
    1 034
    Citation Envoyé par Meluihel Voir le message
    Well said. It is easy to see things happen and understand why after the fact. Seeing them before however is... much more of a challenge.
    Not quite, its really common sense to piss someone off even things like Ents respond to that fact, If Saruman at the time had made the correct tactical desitions he might still loose but he probably would lasted longer.

    Its a matter of tactical and strategy which obviously make a well-trained captain stand out of the crowd, he thinks in the future in a very practical way, a lousy captain will always face impossible things and his life will always be in peril.

  22. #72
    Date d'inscription
    septembre 2013
    Messages
    182
    Citation Envoyé par Al. Voir le message
    Not quite, its really common sense to piss someone off even things like Ents respond to that fact, If Saruman at the time had made the correct tactical desitions he might still loose but he probably would lasted longer.
    Haven't people been saying just that? In fact here are some quotes of people saying he made mistakes... just in case you forgot them.
    Citation Envoyé par Meluihel Voir le message
    He made a mistake of course...
    Citation Envoyé par gasconade Voir le message
    All due respect, but I would have taken the knock-out blow and went for Edoras. All the rats were in a cage, locked up in Helm's Deep. That was the White Hand's mistake.
    Citation Envoyé par gonnaplaynow Voir le message
    though ofc forgetting the Ents was the biggest mistake.

    And that is only a few from the first page. Need I go on? Of course Saruman made mistakes. And yes those were in part what lead to his downfall.

    Its a matter of tactical and strategy which obviously make a well-trained captain stand out of the crowd, he thinks in the future in a very practical way, a lousy captain will always face impossible things and his life will always be in peril.
    This is what we've been talking about. Other things besides Saruman simply making mistakes happened. Things that no power or strategy on the face of the earth could accounted for before they happened ?took place. Looking back on things now of course they make sense.

  23. #73
    Date d'inscription
    août 2008
    Localisation
    Cookie Land
    Messages
    1 617
    I partially agree with Al on the matter. From what I remember Saruman had scoped out Fangorn in the past and had conversations with Treebeard. Getting information and giving little in return. My guess is that he should have been aware of the risk to some degree. Of course I don’t know how much and of what variety of info Treebeard was actually willing to impart to him.

  24. #74
    Date d'inscription
    septembre 2013
    Messages
    182
    Citation Envoyé par RKL Voir le message
    I partially agree with Al on the matter. From what I remember Saruman had scoped out Fangorn in the past and had conversations with Treebeard. Getting information and giving little in return. My guess is that he should have been aware of the risk to some degree. Of course I don’t know how much and of what variety of info Treebeard was actually willing to impart to him.
    No argument there in fact I completely agree. Saruman should have done a far better job in knowing about the Ents. He should have included them into his plans. If he had then he would have been much more ready to meet their assault.

  25. #75
    Date d'inscription
    août 2008
    Localisation
    Cookie Land
    Messages
    1 617
    Citation Envoyé par Meluihel Voir le message
    No argument there in fact I completely agree. Saruman should have done a far better job in knowing about the Ents. He should have included them into his plans. If he had then he would have been much more ready to meet their assault.
    Possibly lending more credence to Al’s theory about good captains. Was Saruman’s (possible) arrogance a factor in his ability to get information from Treebeard? Should he have played the friend angle more with him to get more relevant info about the capabilities and tendencies of the residents of Fangorn, or did he get all he needed and just failed to make the right calls?

 

 
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