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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Mar 2015
    Posts
    38

    Weapon-swapping and Sunk Cost Fallacy

    For those who have trouble understanding why some folks cling to weapon-swapping like it's their favorite threadbare security blanket, I urge you to look up the term "sunk cost fallacy" on Wikipedia or other sources.

    Basically, it describes an irrational inability to give up something that one has invested in, even when its future utility is uncertain or nullified. It's also known as "throwing good money after bad" or the "Concorde fallacy", because the development of that aircraft continued long after its economic infeasibility became apparent.

    How does this apply to LOTRO and weapon-swapping, in particular? Many folks in the game have worked long and hard to hone their weapon-swapping skills, and, in one sense, that was a rational choice, because it derived significant DPS improvements. They invested time and effort into the skill, and, for a time at least, reaped the rewards. But, at a deeper level, they should have realized that it was an unintentional benefit, never designed into the game, and therefore its future was precarious at best. Gather ye rosebuds while ye may, as the 17th-century poem goes. There would eventually be a day of reckoning, and that day is fast approaching. Like all sunk costs, it's time to acknowledge that what once was viable, will no longer be, and move on. The Concorde was never going to make money, weapon-swapping is going away, you had your time and should savor your memories. But look to the future. Or, more succinctly, get over it.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    3,897
    Well, that's gonna start an argument.
    ~ Take the player, not the class ~

  3. #3
    SSG intentionally and unintentionally supported Weapon Swapping.

    They let it go so long instead of tackling said part of the game and now it's come full circle.

    This could have been dealt with a while ago.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Mar 2015
    Posts
    38
    Quote Originally Posted by Harvain View Post
    SSG intentionally and unintentionally supported Weapon Swapping.

    They let it go so long instead of tackling said part of the game and now it's come full circle.

    This could have been dealt with a while ago.
    Right, but the "why didn't they do it sooner?" is a pretty weak argument, wouldn't you agree? The glass-half-full side of that is that weapon-swappers got a lot more rewards from it than they would have if SSG, had nixed the mechanic, say, 3 years ago. So, relish the benefit you got from it, don't curse the fact that it's going away, because that was pretty much a given; it was only a matter of when.

    As an analogy (and yes, I know those are dangerous), why was smoking allowed in restaurants and planes for so long? Think of all the lives that could have been saved, if it was banned sooner. But the other side of that is that the smokers got to indulge their habit for years. They can hardly argue that because it was allowed for X number of years, that it should never be banned. They may have other reasons for arguing that (personal freedom, etc.), but "why wasn't it done sooner?" doesn't carry the day. One can't go back and change the past, make a change sooner than it actually happened; but one can make a change in the present, and have it affect the future. (Speaking as a former smoker btw).

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by egarthur View Post
    Right, but the "why didn't they do it sooner?" is a pretty weak argument, wouldn't you agree? The glass-half-full side of that is that weapon-swappers got a lot more rewards from it than they would have if SSG, had nixed the mechanic, say, 3 years ago. So, relish the benefit you got from it, don't curse the fact that it's going away, because that was pretty much a given; it was only a matter of when.

    As an analogy (and yes, I know those are dangerous), why was smoking allowed in restaurants and planes for so long? Think of all the lives that could have been saved, if it was banned sooner. But the other side of that is that the smokers got to indulge their habit for years. They can hardly argue that because it was allowed for X number of years, that it should never be banned. They may have other reasons for arguing that (personal freedom, etc.), but "why wasn't it done sooner?" doesn't carry the day. One can't go back and change the past, make a change sooner than it actually happened; but one can make a change in the present, and have it affect the future. (Speaking as a former smoker btw).
    Quote Originally Posted by Harvain View Post
    +Cord of the Rings Friday Stream Summary: September 17th, 2021: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/1151352054


    Cordovan traveling to Buckland - 00:51:17 to 00:53:35 - Weapon Swapping and SSG:

    [LIST][*]Comment: SSG is basically stopping Weapon Swapping after finally hearing about it.

    • Cordovan Comment: "No, we've been aware that it's been an issue for a long time and it's one of those long term debates as a Team we want to do this, we'll make everyone mad, let's kick it down the road, no but we really need to do this, okay but not now, we'll do this later and then later comes and we have that argument again and all that sort of thing. So a lot of times these sort of, even when we know that something needs to be done when we get a lot of feedback from the Community we do consider that feedback a lot and we're seeing that right now right? Where people are we like I wanna keep do my Weapon Swapping but we're finally ripping the band-off because it's terrible for the game, it's terrible for balance, it's a terrible gameplay experience and it's really difficult to balance long term."

    • Cordovan Comment: "It creates this class of who's willing to cheese the System and who isn't and we're not really interesting in playing that game. You're not cheating or anything by Weapon Swapping currently, you're just doing what you are allowed to do but that's why the solution is to get rid of it and that's why we will be doing that in the very near future. So it's not fair to say we just learned of it, we've known about it for a long time. It's just at the moment we finally have the political will and willingness to cause a little bit of disruption because of in-part of the LI work that is being done."
    SSG just lacked the fortitude to face short term backlash compared to what could be gained long term during the era since F2P LOTRO started in Late 2010 with the overall mindset that still is around even here in Late 2021.

    Although finally SSG is on the verge of doing things which will cause X amount of issues, backlash, fixes, patches, updates, so on and so forth for X amount of time once we start the process with Update 30.3 here in several weeks.

    I personally have never used Weapon Swapping at least in terms of what it is now. I've done the Fishing Quests and swapped to a Weapon but that was all.

    So I've not been in any camp beyond, "SSG make a decision and go through with it" and that's for everything because we've got a list a mile long and growing that needs decisions and something done about them after a decision is made.



    Now just in general it's not about "Why didn't they do it sooner?" it's why in Year 14 going into Year 15 of LOTRO is it that SSG is treating LOTRO like it is still in 2010 for various key Systems and like there is all the time in the world to deal with them?

    Why is there still hesitancy from elements within the SSG LOTRO Team on basically what could arguably be said as almost any issue?

    Why is SSG in 2021, heading into the tail end of the year, ahead of a Major Key System Change and then Expansion, does it seem like things behind the scenes are at the very least like they don't have things together enough and are in 11th Hour Mode to scrape "something" together to wrap up 2021?

    Why especially after having an uptick in Communication from SSG here around a 4 month period (June, July, August and September) which was painting a pretty confident SSG and picture going forward even with admitting there would be bumps in the road that we are in the 11th Hour here in September ahead of key changes to the Game that the curtain is falling down and things look hectic?

    Why especially here recently are we told that, "SSG doesn't actually have someone on the Team dedicated to Bullroarer Testing Notes for the LOTRO Community" and we, the LOTRO Community, have no clue what is happening in between Previews especially with Preview #3 and yet we expect more Previews for the Brawler Class & New Legendary Item System and that's ahead of whatever amount of Preview(s) for the Fate of Gundabad Expansion?



    Now for me personally, I fully admit, here earlier in 2021 that I know the history of LOTRO, Turbine, SSG, so on and so forth that history is against the Game & Development Team but things did sound and seem like behind the scenes SSG were really getting things together, really getting on the same page, realizing that, "Hey, it's now or never, we have to make things count and step up the quality of what we bring even if we don't have the personnel for such compared to larger Development Studios" especially with how things are at the moment in the final weeks of the Level 130 Cap Range.

    Now however with how things are being handled, discussed and been shown in terms of Notes & Previews, it looks like we are in for a rough end of 2021, start of 2022 and we have the Pre-Orders for the Fate of Gundabad Expansion starting ahead of all these changes especially the Update 30.3 changes so we won't know what kind of fallout, backlash, so on and so forth LOTRO & SSG will be dealing until well after the September 27th start to Pre-Orders.



    End of the day, for me, it's about when and really if SSG will be able to get it together for their LOTRO Team, collectively get on the same page, make the hard decisions and start acting on those decisions if they want to "see LOTRO keep going for another 15 years" and show us, not tell us, that they are doing such cause it doesn't seem like we'll be seeing that anytime soon and maybe not even in time for when the LOTR IP has a lot of hype, media attention, so on and so forth starting in Summer 2022, heading into the end of 2022 and beyond.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Harvain View Post
    Why especially after having an uptick in Communication from SSG here around a 4 month period (June, July, August and September) which was painting a pretty confident SSG
    "uptick in Communication" = more frequent/earnest-sounding apologies.

    Not really the stuff a renaissance is built on...
    Dagoreth (Warden) and Belechannas (Lore-master) of Arkenstone

    < No Dorfs >
    Fighting the Dorf menace to Middle Earth since 2008

 

 

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