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  1. #1
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    @Raninia Regarding the new Legendary Servers

    Two things that need to be (or rather should be) urgently addressed before the new Legendary Servers are released.



    Both of these issues/questions were raised in the recent thread https://www.lotro.com/forums/showthr...s-6-18-Noon-ET and were somewhat addressed by Raninia during the Livestream, however, I don’t believe either of you really understood what it was that was being asked – especially how these questions relate to the upcoming Legendary Servers. I for one, cannot fathom your thinking to go ahead with a further two legendary servers when two fundamental problems that existed at the start of Anor and Ithil, still exist today, yes, there was a fair amount of retroactive work done as the Legendary servers moved through the content, however it was by and large, never enough…

    Loot tables & Itemisation.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hallandil View Post
    Can items tables, drops and reward structures (specifically levels 66-105) in the game get a serious look at? As much as the producers/developers in the past have expressed not wanting to touch old content; A core part of the RPG Gameplay Experience loop is the rewards and items bestowed from doing content in this game. In having over a decade of content, Skirmishes, Scaling Instances as well as Crafted Gear, Raid rewards and items from 66-105 need a serious look at as they do not reflect with how Stats, Classes and the new Universal Currency systems now work.
    Prior to Helms Deep and Level 95, every ‘scaling’ instance, had their own unique loot tables that existed, loot that also only dropped from certain instance clusters etc. these instances were worth doing to some extent, especially at new level caps, it also gave us as players a much larger array of content to choose from, currently, all we have to choose from today is whatever content was released at Level 130, and, whilst I admit, the amount of instance/raid content we have had at Level 130 is by and large more content than we have received at any Level Cap since Level 65, I don’t understand why scaling instances have been left to rot, ESPECIALLY when you have two more Legendary Servers on their way that, by the time they get to Level 65 will only have ‘scaling’ instance content to play.

    Do you know that neither the Ost Dunhoth or Barad Guldur raids drop ANY relevant loot (aside from a few token pieces that were added when Anor and Ithil reached 65), they don’t even drop their own raid set armours, you have to barter them for Skirmish Currency.

    So I ask, seriously, how difficult would it be to reimplement the old loot tables from the lv50-85 era back into those scaling instances, AT LEAST for the purposes of the Legendary Servers?

    Also on this subject, the itemisation of loot from Level 50-60 (at least) should really be looked at; just as one or two examples, why does the Guardians Heavy Shield from the Rift barter (Lv50 Raid) offer +Will as a stat? In what world is that even relevant anymore? Will offers nothing to Guardians. Similarly, the Champion swords from their relevant Rift Barter, why do they also offer +Will as a stat? This is also not just limited to the barter gear, but to quest rewards and drops from instances as well.



    Tiers & Instance Difficulty.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eowene View Post
    So I just want to know if you are willing and able to balance them with additional tiers of difficulty, all 6mans/raids for level 50-75, giving tier 3 to those without tiers, and tier 5 to those that already have a tier 3?
    This was covered a bit by Raninia in the Livestream however I do not believe you properly understood that Eowenes question was directly asking you to bring in these higher tiers BEFORE the new Legendary Servers opened. The Level 50 instance Cluster is just not difficult anymore, people were 2/3/4-manning the Rift on the Legendary servers within the first week of it being live, how can this be considered ok? Anything that does not currently have a tier, should be offered a tiering system up to Tier 3 (Like Carn Dum), and anything that does currently have a tiering system, should be offered tiers up to tier 5 (Like the Rift Raid). However, that being said, this alone is not enough, you then need to incentivise people to actually do the higher tiers of content, so how difficult would it be to increase the item level of the gear that drops from higher tiered content? So, for example, if something that currently drops in Carn Dum is, for example, Item Level 50, how difficult would it be to make it so that that item that drops on Tier 3 Carn Dum would be Item Level 53? (You get the idea).

    Ultimately, why have these issues not been addressed, despite being brought up during the first two Legendary Servers, and now you plan to release a further two whilst these issues are still prevalent?

  2. #2
    As long as SSG remove essences & slotted gear from the new servers, I will be giving them a go.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Runtime9000 View Post
    As long as SSG remove essences & slotted gear from the new servers, I will be giving them a go.
    Yeah, i was really dissapointed to see this on Anor. Shouldnt even be there, until lvl 100 at least.

    I never farmed them tho and i guess you needed it for Rift T2-3. And now when the essences are nerfed they have to redo the T2-3, if they want them from start.
    Last edited by HeliStorm; Jun 22 2021 at 09:59 AM.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeliStorm View Post
    Yeah, i was really dissapointed to see this on Anor. Shouldnt even be there, until lvl 100 at least.

    I never farmed them tho and i guess you needed it for Rift T2-3. And now when the essences are nerfed they have to redo the T2-3, if they want them from start.
    You did not need the essence gear for Rift t2/3, but I agree it should be removed or disabled on the legendary servers all the same.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Hephburz-2 View Post
    You did not need the essence gear for Rift t2/3, but I agree it should be removed or disabled on the legendary servers all the same.
    Exactly. But, the other grievance I had during the beginning of Anor/Ithil was that healers ended up pushed to Motes gear by keeping outgoing healing absent from all other gear types. And sure, it's not like impossible to get or anything, but it really killed my mood.

    And tbh, I don't think Shadowfax/Treebeard are gonna bring anything different from what we have except the landscape difficulty.

    But hey, thanks for trying to raise awareness. Itemization for those old levels made the content fun to run. It just sucks having it overshadowed by Motes stuff.
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  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Laurelinarien View Post
    Exactly. But, the other grievance I had during the beginning of Anor/Ithil was that healers ended up pushed to Motes gear by keeping outgoing healing absent from all other gear types. And sure, it's not like impossible to get or anything, but it really killed my mood.

    And tbh, I don't think Shadowfax/Treebeard are gonna bring anything different from what we have except the landscape difficulty.

    But hey, thanks for trying to raise awareness. Itemization for those old levels made the content fun to run. It just sucks having it overshadowed by Motes stuff.
    Yes, forgot about the motes-gear. Shouldnt be there either.

  7. #7
    They won't do it. The point of the legendary servers is to avoid as much work as possible dev-side.

  8. #8
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    Thank you for posting this. I would even extend this to say that they should use every expansion to fix and scale old content/systems. For Shadows of Angmar, they should remove essences altogether, but aside from that I think it's pretty good. Prior to the release of Mines of Moria, they absolutely need to have the LI revamp be 100% complete, and they need to fix all the issues you noted in your post.

    They should also take the opportunity to fix/polish old systems:

    -Warsteeds
    -Epic Battles
    -Skirmishes

    etc. etc.
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  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by BadJuju View Post
    They won't do it. The point of the legendary servers is to avoid as much work as possible dev-side.
    Yeah very true, as much as i would like to see a lot of changes to the legendary servers, they will never do so. It's a very low effort way of getting more people into subscriptions. Literally all it is is a tortoise stone server. It's pretty sad

  10. #10
    I appreciate the suggestions here, but we're not planning to make these sorts of changes at this time. I think I mentioned this in the Q&A, but we don't have the bandwidth to do this work at this time, nor is it our highest priority. This is something that we do want to get to, but it won't be done in time for these upcoming Legendary Servers.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raninia View Post
    I appreciate the suggestions here, but we're not planning to make these sorts of changes at this time. I think I mentioned this in the Q&A, but we don't have the bandwidth to do this work at this time, nor is it our highest priority. This is something that we do want to get to, but it won't be done in time for these upcoming Legendary Servers.
    This is disappointing. Whilst I understand that it requires dev time which is always limited, and that you're working hard on a new expansion, please also understand that we who have been playing on the legendary servers have been asking for this kind of support for years now. The legendary servers as they are currently are a good way of experiencing the game, but if you made these kinds of changes and put some time investment into them, they could be the single best way to experience the game. I'd really like you to reconsider this answer Raninia and consider what tweaks to make at each end-game cap to make the content really enjoyable at the different stages of the legendary server journey. Once you've done the work, it will set up for many legendary servers in the future.

    Also, only SoA content needs to be looked at before the servers launch, they you have another however many months to look at the next cap and so on. We're not asking for complete retunement of every encounter, just so that the gear makes sense.
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  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Thymir View Post
    This is disappointing. Whilst I understand that it requires dev time which is always limited, and that you're working hard on a new expansion, please also understand that we who have been playing on the legendary servers have been asking for this kind of support for years now. The legendary servers as they are currently are a good way of experiencing the game, but if you made these kinds of changes and put some time investment into them, they could be the single best way to experience the game. I'd really like you to reconsider this answer Raninia and consider what tweaks to make at each end-game cap to make the content really enjoyable at the different stages of the legendary server journey. Once you've done the work, it will set up for many legendary servers in the future.

    Also, only SoA content needs to be looked at before the servers launch, they you have another however many months to look at the next cap and so on. We're not asking for complete retunement of every encounter, just so that the gear makes sense.
    I totally hear you, and I wish it wasn't the way it is. Unfortunately, these tweaks aren't small and would require a lot of work, including probably engineering, which is perhaps where we're most stretched currently.

    I get that you folks want a more balanced experience throughout the Legendary Servers, especially around caps - unfortunately, a lot of decisions that were made years ago, which made sense at the time, were made without necessarily appreciating a lot of the long term impacts, which come up in situations like this. To be fair to them, they probably never really anticipated the game would be around as long as it has. But those choices mean that a lot of this work is expensive and time-consuming, and while valuable, doesn't rise to the level of value of other things we have in the pipe at the moment.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raninia View Post
    I totally hear you, and I wish it wasn't the way it is. Unfortunately, these tweaks aren't small and would require a lot of work, including probably engineering, which is perhaps where we're most stretched currently.

    I get that you folks want a more balanced experience throughout the Legendary Servers, especially around caps - unfortunately, a lot of decisions that were made years ago, which made sense at the time, were made without necessarily appreciating a lot of the long term impacts, which come up in situations like this. To be fair to them, they probably never really anticipated the game would be around as long as it has. But those choices mean that a lot of this work is expensive and time-consuming, and while valuable, doesn't rise to the level of value of other things we have in the pipe at the moment.
    You realise that without these changes then treebeard and Shadowfax will probably go the same way that Ithil and Anor have, and activity will significantly drop over time once the initial wow factor has dissipated.

    Edit: Furthermore these changes were asked for when the FIRST two Legendary Servers were released some, 2+ years ago now? Because ultimately, this:

    Quote Originally Posted by HolyDuckTape View Post
    It's a very low effort way of getting more people into subscriptions. Literally all it is is a tortoise stone server. It's pretty sad
    Last edited by Hephburz-2; Jun 23 2021 at 10:11 AM.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hephburz-2 View Post
    You realise that without these changes then treebeard and Shadowfax will probably go the same way that Ithil and Anor have, and activity will significantly drop over time once the initial wow factor has dissipated.
    I disagree with that statement for sure. The reason the servers fell off is massively due to how fast the servers moved last time (seriously I can't believe they gave us 3 months to play Moria). I think these changes would make things better, but they're not the reason people stopped playing. The pace was exhausting. That and there isn't anything to do post Isengard except levelling really. Shadowfax I think will suffer more than Treebeard for that reason, I think Treebeard has potential to do really well.
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  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Hephburz-2 View Post
    You realise that without these changes then treebeard and Shadowfax will probably go the same way that Ithil and Anor have, and activity will significantly drop over time once the initial wow factor has dissipated.

    Edit: Furthermore these changes were asked for when the FIRST two Legendary Servers were released some, 2+ years ago now?
    And they consider Anor/Ithil a success. So under that light, these 2 will also be successes..

    As long as they put cross server rewards, people will be there. Loot or no loot. Changes or no changes. We'll play for 2 days every update and return to our home base.
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  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Raninia View Post
    I totally hear you, and I wish it wasn't the way it is. Unfortunately, these tweaks aren't small and would require a lot of work, including probably engineering, which is perhaps where we're most stretched currently.

    I get that you folks want a more balanced experience throughout the Legendary Servers, especially around caps - unfortunately, a lot of decisions that were made years ago, which made sense at the time, were made without necessarily appreciating a lot of the long term impacts, which come up in situations like this. To be fair to them, they probably never really anticipated the game would be around as long as it has. But those choices mean that a lot of this work is expensive and time-consuming, and while valuable, doesn't rise to the level of value of other things we have in the pipe at the moment.
    I know you don't have the engineering bandwidth to address some of the issues at the moment, but I think you may eventually need to remove things from the game that don't work. This will lead to a huge amount of screaming, but in the end it may be the only sensible way forward. For example:

    1) Do LI weapons really work? The idea was great, but the patches that have been made to try and fix it just made everything more complicated.
    2) Does armor with essences really work? At level 150 would anyone really take the time to get all the essences for a level 120 armor as they level?
    we can all add to the list.

    But how do you actually remove something? Very difficult.
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  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thymir View Post
    I disagree with that statement for sure. The reason the servers fell off is massively due to how fast the servers moved last time (seriously I can't believe they gave us 3 months to play Moria). I think these changes would make things better, but they're not the reason people stopped playing. The pace was exhausting. That and there isn't anything to do post Isengard except levelling really. Shadowfax I think will suffer more than Treebeard for that reason, I think Treebeard has potential to do really well.
    Yes the pace of content was also to blame, but your naiive to think that a lot of people didn't stick around in the hopes that things would improve and then once they realised they weren't going to, eventually left.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by SavinDwarf View Post
    I know you don't have the engineering bandwidth to address some of the issues at the moment, but I think you may eventually need to remove things from the game that don't work. This will lead to a huge amount of screaming, but in the end it may be the only sensible way forward. For example:

    1) Do LI weapons really work? The idea was great, but the patches that have been made to try and fix it just made everything more complicated.
    2) Does armor with essences really work? At level 150 would anyone really take the time to get all the essences for a level 120 armor as they level?
    we can all add to the list.

    But how do you actually remove something? Very difficult.
    I agree with many things said in this thread but if I had to pick the post I agree with the *most* this would be it.

    The team needs to be willing to eliminate things or simplify them drastically where necessary to significantly improve server performance and achieve whatever internal goals they have for new player experience. Even if it results in screaming on these forums and some of us leaving. I expect to do some of the screaming and wailing myself but if they can cut lag significantly and increase populations significantly that can make up for the loss of some things I will hate to see go.

    The current LI system will surely go the way of Ninevah and Tyre and while I will miss some of it I think this is both necessary and desirable. Big Battles are an obvious possibility for trashing if they want to simplify. So are skirmishes. We have missions now. Choices are good but is it essential to have all three mechanisms? Trait trees are a frequent target. That they will focus more on keeping one trait tree per class in balance is almost a certainty from what they have said. Small step to going back to one trait tree and many on the forums have pushed for that. Mounted combat - outside of Rohan an almost useless relic to most of us - partly because of the lag it generates. Low probability but far from zero that they will eliminate the combat elements and just keep warsteeds as a faster mount.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raninia View Post
    I totally hear you, and I wish it wasn't the way it is. Unfortunately, these tweaks aren't small and would require a lot of work, including probably engineering, which is perhaps where we're most stretched currently.

    I get that you folks want a more balanced experience throughout the Legendary Servers, especially around caps - unfortunately, a lot of decisions that were made years ago, which made sense at the time, were made without necessarily appreciating a lot of the long term impacts, which come up in situations like this. To be fair to them, they probably never really anticipated the game would be around as long as it has. But those choices mean that a lot of this work is expensive and time-consuming, and while valuable, doesn't rise to the level of value of other things we have in the pipe at the moment.
    An element of not appreciating impact has plagued this game throughout though. All the imbalanced old raids "found" on the LSs were already on the standard servers just never maintained. Out of sight out of mind. Until someone comes up with a ploy to remarket older content because of well financed efforts made elsewhere, not jumping on the band waggon but watching it disappear over distant hills with no intent to follow. Swindlers making money can argue their efforts are profitable and repeat them with a new angle.

    It was the same with trait tree implementation; because that other game had them. The coincidental threat mechanic change to have it a component of damage an astounding decision when tanks had to be built for defence and only made useable with threat copies at +900%. Down to fundamentally not understanding the strengths of the old game play and poor decisions pushed through to save face to the cost to the game and populations.

    More recently it's the store pushing items without much idea on the impact on the game and compounding it with game changes to further induce take up. So far removed they don't get what damage they do in the short term profit metric they are driven by. The joke that your most prominent trumpeter spends around 7950 LP on items gotten for 5000LP worth of Mithril Coins by everyone else and compounds it with more woeful choices using them and still extols viewers to follow that lead. Making valars and pre-imbued LIs available for inept players just places inept players into an environment they don't have the capacity to cope with and harder for the rest of us to avoid. "/lff - no anons" - then you are stuck setting landscape and "epic quest" difficulty so low in pandering to them they have a chance of surviving it - and still they fail...

    It's great that you intend to embrace all that the game has to offer, it's very different to what we are used to; using the forum complaints to avoid showing such on stream. I hope they don't break you!

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raninia View Post
    I totally hear you, and I wish it wasn't the way it is. Unfortunately, these tweaks aren't small and would require a lot of work, including probably engineering, which is perhaps where we're most stretched currently.

    I get that you folks want a more balanced experience throughout the Legendary Servers, especially around caps - unfortunately, a lot of decisions that were made years ago, which made sense at the time, were made without necessarily appreciating a lot of the long term impacts, which come up in situations like this. To be fair to them, they probably never really anticipated the game would be around as long as it has. But those choices mean that a lot of this work is expensive and time-consuming, and while valuable, doesn't rise to the level of value of other things we have in the pipe at the moment.

    I would respectfully beg you guys to reconsider, or at least delay these new servers until you have a plan to address the issues outlined by the OP.

    I am very, very excited for the opportunity to start another LS, as are many other people, but I feel very strongly that these servers will end in disappointment if the devs don't do anything about the fact that the game becomes a total mess after SoA.

    I would argue to allocate more engineering resources on this, even if they are stretched thin currently. New updates can wait, the original game is more important. Realistically, I think you can start SoA without doing anything, but you will need to have the LI revamp done before Moria gets released and it must be revamped for L50+, not just L100+ in order for LI's to be an acceptable part of the legendary servers post Moria. By the time we move past Moria we should have the fixes the OP is requesting in place, and by the time we get to Rohan we should use this as an opportunity to fix warsteeds and epic battles. And so on...

    These servers are VIP only but they do not feel VIP only. You are asking us to pay a subscription and devote a LOT of time to building new characters on these servers, but knowing the current state of the game, loot, instances, etc. in the early levels you must know that we are destined for failure on this path.

    I hope you guys reconsider. If I were in your shoes I would start asking for engineering headcount, I'm sure your new owners have the budget
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  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strider5548 View Post
    I hope you guys reconsider. If I were in your shoes I would start asking for engineering headcount, I'm sure your new owners have the budget

    Budget, yes, and they could hire new people, but there's the question of time to train new people, time for those new people to integrate into the general way development works at SSG (the company culture as it were), and probably some other things I'm forgetting. Point being is we won't see the dividends on that for 2 or more years. (case in point, WoW's dev team added something like 200 people before WoD but we didn't actually see that payoff until Legion and it's arguable it actually slowed WoD's development down. I may have the exact timing wrong, but this was very much a thing. Players were like 'you doubled your team why is development slower' and that was why)

    IOW adding engineers (and devs in general) won't save treebeard and shadowfax. But it would definitely help the expansion after the expansion after Gundabad.

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raninia View Post
    I totally hear you, and I wish it wasn't the way it is. Unfortunately, these tweaks aren't small and would require a lot of work, including probably engineering, which is perhaps where we're most stretched currently.

    I get that you folks want a more balanced experience throughout the Legendary Servers, especially around caps - unfortunately, a lot of decisions that were made years ago, which made sense at the time, were made without necessarily appreciating a lot of the long term impacts, which come up in situations like this. To be fair to them, they probably never really anticipated the game would be around as long as it has. But those choices mean that a lot of this work is expensive and time-consuming, and while valuable, doesn't rise to the level of value of other things we have in the pipe at the moment.
    I mean, you COULD always wait until your developers HAVE the 'bandwidth' to address the very many necessary changes that need doing to your systems and engines in order to accommodate the real 'legendary' experience that everyone keeps asking you for, which would look far less like a cash grab that makes zero sense after you've already closed 1 legendary server due to poor population and far MORE like you're actually giving the community the heartfelt boon they've been waiting for.

    I have no idea why you all are in such a rush to start up more servers that are a failure in implementation right from the start. Or rather I do have one, but it isn't a very nice one at all. I really hope that SSG starts proving me wrong about it, honestly.

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  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strider5548 View Post
    I would respectfully beg you guys to reconsider, or at least delay these new servers until you have a plan to address the issues outlined by the OP.

    I am very, very excited for the opportunity to start another LS, as are many other people, but I feel very strongly that these servers will end in disappointment if the devs don't do anything about the fact that the game becomes a total mess after SoA.

    I would argue to allocate more engineering resources on this, even if they are stretched thin currently. New updates can wait, the original game is more important. Realistically, I think you can start SoA without doing anything, but you will need to have the LI revamp done before Moria gets released and it must be revamped for L50+, not just L100+ in order for LI's to be an acceptable part of the legendary servers post Moria. By the time we move past Moria we should have the fixes the OP is requesting in place, and by the time we get to Rohan we should use this as an opportunity to fix warsteeds and epic battles. And so on...

    These servers are VIP only but they do not feel VIP only. You are asking us to pay a subscription and devote a LOT of time to building new characters on these servers, but knowing the current state of the game, loot, instances, etc. in the early levels you must know that we are destined for failure on this path.

    I hope you guys reconsider. If I were in your shoes I would start asking for engineering headcount, I'm sure your new owners have the budget

    I think you are asking for some of the right things in the wrong way.

    You may feel the original game is more important - I would bet that SSG cares far more about what can be tried out on the legendary servers that will make the "live" game better. When you know what the other party wants a good negotiator concentrates on how what they are asking for gives the other party what it wants.

    The LI revamp is critical - if they are not ready to roll it out fully on "live" they can treat us as a test server and roll it out on us when we get to Moria. Win-win since most of us will want it very much and will be willing to go through some buginess in order to get it first.
    Warsteeds the same - I bet it is on their list to do something with. Or more accurately, to. If it isn't fixed - in the sense a pet may be fixed - before then.
    Big battles ditto.
    Skirmishes ditto - they are older than big battles but they certainly weren't in LOTRO until well after release.

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thymir View Post
    I disagree with that statement for sure. The reason the servers fell off is massively due to how fast the servers moved last time (seriously I can't believe they gave us 3 months to play Moria). I think these changes would make things better, but they're not the reason people stopped playing. The pace was exhausting. That and there isn't anything to do post Isengard except levelling really. Shadowfax I think will suffer more than Treebeard for that reason, I think Treebeard has potential to do really well.
    I disagree with your disagreement. That was your reasoning obviously, but there were plenty of players that wanted the patch after Moria to come sooner than it actually did, and they thought 3 months in Moria was way too long, which it is, given how OP players are in there now. I did the whole of Moria in 5 days, then played a week or two in the instances and that was the end of that.

    There a lot of players that like a slower pace that will like Treebeard, and equally, there are a lot of players that really don't like a slow pace so they will prefer Shadowfax. Pace probably didn't have much bearing on population numbers the first time around, and I doubt it will on these new servers either.

    Itemisation will though.
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  25. #25
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    I think Arnenna is mostly right. Maybe entirely right.

    But in one way I am not sure either of you is fully right. Some people were unhappy because content came too slowly and they were bored with nothing to do after racing through it. Ignoring the question of why anyone would want to race through it if they didn't have anything else planned to do on the server. Some people were unhappy because content came too quickly - perhaps more likely for a player with less time to play or more desire to run a series of alts up to the content or more desire to bum around and do a lot of different things including crafting.

    But my own guess is that the fall-off of population was inherent and structural. The perceived advantages of the server kept getting less with time. It wasn't brand new with everyone equal. It didn't have a fresh economy. It wasn't a server without the curse of (fill in something you hate whether LIs or Big Battles or Mounted Combat). It was an almost current server with a 40% reduction in experience making it harder to get to the current endgame with new alts.

    Will this doom Treebeard and Shadowfax? Perhaps not.

    Shadowfax will, in the fullness of time and if it survives, also become an almost current server. But it will be one where progress remains fast and alts will be easier to level than on "live". Plus it will have the difficulty slider which may or may not ever get to "live". So people will have reasons to stay that didn't apply on Anor and Ithil.

    Treebeard will become an almost current server far later in its lifespan. So anyone that would leave as e.g. Rohan hits would be there much longer. Plus it too will have the difficulty slider. So it may fail - any server may fail - but its fate is not foreknown from looking at Ithil and Anor.

 

 
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