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  1. #1

    some math : quick question

    Hi,

    What is the probability to get only 1 critical over 17 tries if you have 23% rate of critic ?

    I know crating is dead now since lvl 100 or at least not enjoyable at all, but I just rerolled and I have the feeling that even lower level (45) craft is corrupted

    thanks for the tip

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by Finrowe View Post
    Hi,

    What is the probability to get only 1 critical over 17 tries if you have 23% rate of critic ?

    I know crating is dead now since lvl 100 or at least not enjoyable at all, but I just rerolled and I have the feeling that even lower level (45) craft is corrupted

    thanks for the tip
    I think, for exactly one crit, it should be 23%*77%^16
    Not sure though... but that would be 0.35%
    the chance to get at least one would be quite a lot higher... (1-77%^17=98.8%)
    and if you look at the chance to get a crit after a long chain without crits (with looking at the order, the calculation is different (the same for each try, but the chance to get a certain sequence is lower the longer it is)).
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  3. #3
    Craft crits have been borked since 2007 at game launch. Crits tend to begit more crits, and the same for non-crits. The fix is if you get three non crits in a row, stop and do something else, then come back to it later. That will reset the algorithim.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jul 2016
    Location
    UK
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    2,726
    Quote Originally Posted by MithrielWielder View Post
    Craft crits have been borked since 2007 at game launch. Crits tend to begit more crits, and the same for non-crits. The fix is if you get three non crits in a row, stop and do something else, then come back to it later. That will reset the algorithim.
    I was refining ore last night, started off with 50 medium grade Calenard, ended up with 120 high grade @ 40% crit chance. I also did some tailoring on "Expert" level with a L32 alt and got a full set of L32 purple light armour in only 8 goes @32.5% crit. First 4 pieces all crit'ed the first go.

    Some you win and some you lose

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Albany New York
    Posts
    675
    Back when Rise of Isengard came out they introduced the Pibgorn. My Woodworker was crafting all five variations for sale on the AH. I had a very high Crit % and as I crafted a few of each type, four of the five critted everyone, one wouldn't Crit after eight tries. Go figure.
    It is logical, in view of the times in which we live. But to be logical is not to be right, and nothing on God's earth could ever make it right!
    - Judge Dan Haywood

 

 

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