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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    33

    Lootbox itemization: some statistics and a few suggestions

    Today, I ran a test on Bullroarer to check the distribution of drops from the Gorgoroth lootboxes with the 21.3 update. The sample is not that big - 55 items - but it still shows some interesting results.

    Each lootbox drops three items: the first is a crafting ingredient, the second is some amount of ash, and the last one is a randomly selected item from the loot list that includes cosmetic/housing items, empowered shadow/abyssal essences, and purple/teal pieces of gear.

    Here is how the distribution looks like:

    Crafting ingredients

    5 black adamants (18.18%)
    5 doomfold parchments (9.09%)
    5 pieces of gorgoroth wood (9.09%)
    5 pieces of doomfold scarn (9.09%)
    5 doomfold hides (7.27%)
    2 gorgoroth branches (12.73%)
    2 pieces of doomfold wax (16.36%)
    2 chunks of high-grade doomfold scarn (16.36%)
    2 doomfold leathers (1.82%)

    Nothing particularly interesting except quite weird probability of getting tailor materials. Not sure that it matters anyway, because this part of lootboxes is useless.

    Ash drops

    Ash (x20) (65.45%)
    Ash (x40) (18.18%)
    Ash (x100) (12.73%)
    Ash (x200) (1.82%)
    Ash (x400) (1.82%)

    Main finding here is pretty ridiculous chance of getting anything besides x20 ash. The chance of getting x40 and x100 ash shall be higher (especially, considering the upcoming ash inflation); probability of getting x200/x400 ash is also too low (it shall be at least 5%-6%).

    Gear drops

    Empowered shadow essences (36.36%)
    Abyssal essences (7.27%)
    Raid gear t1 (29.09%)
    Raid gear t2 (9.09%)
    Cosmetic (18.18%)

    First, it feels quite weird to have almost 20% chance of getting cosmetic drops instead of gear (imagine getting a tome of frog, 2 pieces of wax, and 20 ash after buying a key from the Store). Second, the chance of getting a random abyssal essence is too small; if you want to keep the same probability, then it will make more sense to give an essence token/box instead, so the player will be able to choose an essence. Thirdly, I do not understand the reason of including raid gear t2 (i.e. t2 jewellry and t2 armour without set bonuses) to lootboxes. If it shall help non-raiders to get nice teal gear, then the chance of getting it is too low. If the purpose is to make raiders spend money on the first day of 21.3 release in order to get the first kill faster, then the chance is too high.

    Suggestions:

    1) Remove ingredients from lootboxes. It is ridiculous and irritating to have 1 slot of loot out of 3 occupied with crafting materials that are plentiful around. By adding these useless things to the lootboxes you only disappoint people who open them and kill the incentive to actually buy the keys (which, I guess, you desperately want/need).

    2) Instead of ingredients, put cosmetics into the first slot. Yes, it will mean that lootboxes will drop much more cosmetic elements, but, at least, not for the cost of gear. If you really want to make lootboxes appleaing, move cosmetics into Store and put essences for the first slot of lootboxes, so every lootbox will provide a guaranteed essence drop.

    3) Increase the amount of ash dropped. Currently, ash is the main incentive to open lootboxes: with prices going as high as 2k with 21.3, having 65% probability of getting 20 ash is ridiculous. I would say that the removing 20 ash drops altogether will be a good start, so the lowest possible amount will be 40/60 ash.

    4) Decide why you included t2 gear to lootboxes in the first place. The chance of getting it is too low to actually help in gearing a single toon (not even mentioning alts) with teal gear reliably; however, if it is just to (sorry) milk raiders, then you might want to decrease it to avoid a slight chance of people actually getting gear on the first day and then getting the first world/server kill easier.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    6,137
    and this is why the boxes are a joke. Sadly, people keep buying those keys so it is only gonna get worse before it either ends or gets better. But knowing the Lotro trend it will probably end before it gets better.
    I saw the light fade from the sky
    On the wind I heard a sigh
    As the snowflakes cover my fallen brothers
    I will say this last goodbye

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2016
    Posts
    1,428
    Quote Originally Posted by Asfalred View Post
    Suggestions:

    1) Remove ingredients from lootboxes. It is ridiculous and irritating to have 1 slot of loot out of 3 occupied with crafting materials that are plentiful around. By adding these useless things to the lootboxes you only disappoint people who open them and kill the incentive to actually buy the keys (which, I guess, you desperately want/need).

    2) Instead of ingredients, put cosmetics into the first slot. Yes, it will mean that lootboxes will drop much more cosmetic elements, but, at least, not for the cost of gear. If you really want to make lootboxes appleaing, move cosmetics into Store and put essences for the first slot of lootboxes, so every lootbox will provide a guaranteed essence drop.

    3) Increase the amount of ash dropped. Currently, ash is the main incentive to open lootboxes: with prices going as high as 2k with 21.3, having 65% probability of getting 20 ash is ridiculous. I would say that the removing 20 ash drops altogether will be a good start, so the lowest possible amount will be 40/60 ash.

    4) Decide why you included t2 gear to lootboxes in the first place. The chance of getting it is too low to actually help in gearing a single toon (not even mentioning alts) with teal gear reliably; however, if it is just to (sorry) milk raiders, then you might want to decrease it to avoid a slight chance of people actually getting gear on the first day and then getting the first world/server kill easier.
    Here's the rub, my friend...and I mean no disrespect to you...but your suggestions implies that SSG may not know what they are doing when it comes to the itemization of the loot-boxes and I can assure you they know exactly what they are doing. The psychology behind loot-boxes is nothing new. Even if it doesn't apply to you or me, there are people out there who will spend a lot of $$ to open these boxes even for the 9% chance that T2 raid gear will drop...or the 1.8% chance that 400 ash will drop. The percentages don't matter. What matters is that these items exist in the loot-boxes to begin with. What matters is that these loot-boxes are in the game at all. Removing them completely is the only way to go.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Australia
    Posts
    4,029
    When this game dies in 3-5 years, it will be because a legal precedent occurs where the 'lootbox' trend in online games becomes officially classified as gambling.

    Which, psychologically speaking, it is.

  5. #5
    So, I did my own experiment on Bullroarer today. 50 keys + gorgoroth lootboxes. Results were similar in ash to original. On drops my experience was abysmal.

    Ash:
    20 (25: 50%)
    40 (16: 36%)
    100(4: 8%)
    200(1: 2%)
    400(2: 4%)

    Drops:
    3 frogs, 2 snakes, 6 yard ornaments, 1 cosmetic shield
    2 abyssal essences (1 vit, 1 fate (LOL))
    23 empowered essences (1 of Light, rest useless)
    5 equipment purples (None better for my warden than the teals that he had equipped)
    8 jewelry purples (None much better than crafted (fragment of gorgoroth dungeon type))
    No teal.

    50 keys. no drop of value. Ash was effectively same as original poster.

    Bah Humbug. What a waste.

 

 

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