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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    The Prancing Pony, usually I'm drunk in a corner

    Understanding crit percentages

    I crafted 10 things this evening with a 75% crit chance... NOTHING critted
    Last edited by Sapience; May 27 2014 at 01:19 PM.
    Glorgnorbor, A Rock And A Hard Place, Stop by our Friday music shows! 4PM EST at the Bree West Gate on Dwarrowdelf!
    If a Malledhrim Soldier dies alone in the forest because of canceled quest, will it make a sound? ~Leixy
    Took me a few years, but I renewed my signature :)

  2. #2
    Well, you could've been very unlucky

    “I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.
    "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    A 75% success chance implies a 25% failure chance, so 10 failures consecutively should happen about once per million trials on average. You hit the unlucky jackpot.
    "No sadder words of tongue or pen are the words: 'Might have been'." -- John Greenleaf Whittier
    "Do or do not. There is no try." -- Yoda
    On planet Earth, there is a try.
    Indeed, in a world and life full of change, the only constant is human nature (A is A, after all :P).
    We old vets need to keep in mind those who come after us.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    I've been so unlucky while using Scroll of the Ages. I think I never critted anything (horselord recipes) with it except one time for a kinship member.. Think it was maybe 7 times and then I started to use those 100% scrolls.

  5. #5
    I failed to crit on two of the fanghorn recipes with 73% chance (inc scroll of ages). There is no way I will be grinding for another 30 days to get 400 more tokens for another chance. I wouldn't even grind for a recipe for the other head/shoulder slot even though a teal non-crit is an upgrade..

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    honestly - crafting crits is working fine for me.
    You must really have had an unusual bad luck streak.

    and IMHO you're kinda overkilling with that headline

    "Dont cry - I'll pop a token for you!"
    elen sila lumenn omentielvo

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by robbie1435 View Post
    I crafted 10 things this evening with a 75% crit chance... NOTHING critted

    I think this is an issue of late. Specially with higher-end materials the crit ratings just don't seem to add up, and I remember quite well when they did (like two months ago). I'm going to submit a bug report for it myself. I also had the problem of it straight up eating ingots every once in a while if I used crit materials. It would say that it gave me the ingot on the chat window and eat the materials but the number on the stack would not go up.
    Last edited by elianidd2; Jun 19 2014 at 01:05 PM.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by elianidd2 View Post
    It would say that it gave me the ingot on the chat window and eat the materials but the number on the stack would not go up.
    Out of curiosity... Is it possible that you had more than one not-full stack of materials in your inventory?

    Because, if you're using processing, the new ingot may be going into the first stack and not the second stack that you're watching.

  9. #9
    while I can't prove it. I believe the current time possibly seconds is used as part or all of the seed value. I find if I get a fail and craft another item immediately after it, I am likely to fail again. Also I believe they use a very streaky RNG. I tend to wait 5-10 seconds or more after a crit failure before resuming crafting. I find it gives you more even results and fewer failures. Ultimately if you craft 100 items at 75% crit, most times I see 3/4 crit, but I will often see several fails in a row and several successes in a row. The RNG as they say does work, but it works in streaks in my experience. A good example is the c runtime RNG function. If you input two near seeds (ie 4,5) you are very likely to get the same result when the RNG value is divided by the number of possible outcomes. For example 75% chance would be done as rnd()%100 < 75 so they take the random number from rnd() and get the remainder when divided by 100 and see if its less then 75. So if the result of rnd with a seed of 4 and the result with a seed of 5 result in two values only separate by 1 or 2 numbers the result of the division by 100 will be similar enough to cause the same result. This is how the streaks happen. If you wait enough time after a failure you may get a very different result.
    Welleg , Kelleg, and Gelleg - Crickhollow
    WARNING: leveling a warden may cause you to neglect your other characters.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Usual RNG failure. Unfortunately impossible to proove that it's flawed.
    Used to play: 85 Champ / Captain / Runekeeper / Guardian, Guild Master of everything but cooking.
    Playing now: Hellcat / King Tiger / GW Panther / IS / KV-5 / M4 Sherman and more

  11. #11
    I haven't seen the software, but because it would require more work, I assume that you don't get your own personal random number generator and that it retains no history to be biased for or against you. Given how many "random" events are happening on a server each second, you would never see the streakiness in the RNG, to the extent there is any. (I wonder how many random numbers ARE generated each second on average.)

    Unless the displayed percentage doesn't match the percentage used by the game, there is no easy way for the game to discriminate. RNG-based operations are so fundamental and pervasive in the game, it is hard to imagine how they could be unfair to a particular person or in a particular situation. It would take thousands of trials to demonstrate that the actual crit rate differs significantly from the displayed rate.

    Human intuition leads to many fallacies regarding random (or pseudo-random) events. People buy billions of lottery tickets despite the fact that on average over the long run they are losing about half their money. On the other hand, despite astronomical odds for any individual, there are regular lotto winners. Lotteries make money because people ignore the former and pay attention to the latter.

    No one complains when they get more crits than they "deserve". (OK, some did when they kept getting interrupted by the inscription prompt when they were levelling crafters, but that's been remedied. lol)

    Feel free to believe in luck, Karma or the Law of Attraction if you like, but you're probably just seeing a pattern in random occurrences.



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