
Originally Posted by
Harper_of_Gondolin
For Vilnas,
Thank you for a comprehensive and accurate analysis. There is, however, one small detail that has been overlooked (forgive me if some one else has mentioned this: I have parsed the thread but did not find any reference).
According to Saruman's best information, at the time he issued orders to his armies to drive for Helm's Deep, Helm's Deep and the Hornburg could only be sparsely-manned: Saruman could not know the progress of the mobilization of Westfold, but knew that it had begun only very-recently, and that the main part of Westfold strength had been directed to defend the Fords of Isen; Saruman also had no knowledge of Théoden's cure, the reconciliation with Eomer, and the subsequent hasty-muster of available Eastfold riders and the King's household to ride to the relief of Erkenbrand.
Indeed, when the King's company arrived at Helm's Deep they found exactly what Saruman had hoped (for his own army) to find: Gamling described the scant defenders as, mostly, "gammers who have seen too many winters" and lads "who have seen too few"; as these defenders were from the 'fyrd' of Westfold, not knights or soldiers but farmers and herdsmen, they were ill-equipped, in gear, experience and ability, to 'properly offer battle'; Gamling further owned that only Théoden's timely arrival has provided them even with enough manpower to (properly) man the dike. Remember, now, that the King arrived only a very-short time before Saruman's army.
In short, Saruman had correctly discerned that Helm's Deep would be inadequately defended, and ripe to be seized by assault: the un(der)defended dike would be overrun at the very onset of the attack, and the Hornburg subsequently invested from all sides (and remember the instruments of blasting-fire with which these forces had been equipped); he had expected a quick, overwhelming, victory against surprised, unprepared and underequipped, defenders who were, themselves, of a kind ill-suited to 'properly offer battle'. With the Hornburg seized, Erkenbrand's army would have been cut-off from supply and reinforcement, and annihilated.
The overall strategy had envisioned a 'one-two-three' punch to deliver all of Westfold to Saruman: the First Battle of the Fords drew manpower away from Helm's Deep, and the Second Battle of the Fords pinned those forces at the crossings of Isen, 'opening the door' to seize a lightly-defended Helm's Deep by assault; once Erkenbrand was cut off, Westfold would be finished.
To Saruman's dismay, the words of real-life Graf von Moltke ("Moltke the Elder", a 19th-century German Field Marshall and internationally-acclaimed strategist/tactician of whom Tolkien may quite-likely have known) came to fruition: "No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy's main strength" or, "no plan [of battle] survives first contact [with the enemy]".
HoG
P.S. Saruman had despatched companies of wolf-riders to secure the eastern and southern flanks of the assault force bound for Helm's Deep; Théoden's company encountered one of these.
HoG