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  1. #51
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Middle-earth
    Posts
    1,839
    Gagmuk, a lot of it is sheer luck of the draw, oh yes.

    But the base odds (droprate) is the underlying variable that determines overall how many grabs it would take on average to get one shard. And I have reasons to believe (not prove, as the evidence would not statistically float) that the droprate is unusually low.

    Also, people who leave ore nodes open by only partially looting them has very little effect. Ore nodes are regenerated quite regularly. That half-empty node will refill itself fairly quickly, it does not stay halfopen forever. Only if you were following that player in their footsteps would you experience half filled nodes.
    Last edited by Rainothon; Dec 05 2013 at 07:09 AM. Reason: clarification

  2. #52
    I was finally able to find 2 within a hour after purchasing 4 with my Westemnet Iron Coins in Helms Deep. So I am at 11 now.
    [charsig=http://lotrosigs.level3.turbine.com/08207000000264409/01003/signature.png]undefined[/charsig]
    lvl 95 Champion / Rank 10 Arkenstone Server / Officer - Order of the Cresent Dragon / Kuznumshi lvl 95 Reaver / Rank 7 Arkenstone Server / Grunt of Tribe of Aracnophobia

  3. #53
    1) The issue with shards is not the RNG, its the drop rate, which has been intentionally set low. The drop rate is lower than any other craft crit item since the originals at game launch back in March, 2007. The shard drop rate is lower than 1/250, and far lower than the drop rate of mithril shards at MOM launch. There is a reason for this. They have reversed the traditional bottleneck on symbols. Now, symbols are virtually free at the skirm camp, and the limitation on gear is not symbols but shards. Now, its not just LI that are scarce, it is every kind of gear. They want you to play with random gear drops, which was the way it was way back in 2007. People tend to forget (or never knew because they havn't played that long) that crafted gear was not widely available until crafting guilds were added to the game.

    2) This has big implications for the economy, as inflation should come to a halt. Crafters will no longer be able to make money on the AH. And since symbols are virtually free at the skirm camp, raiders will no longer by able to make money selling them. The main source of money now is the 100 silver or so which drops from each mob kill. in a few months I suppose people will be selling crystals.

    3) Crafters have long known that the RNG is not random. Its been that way since 2007. If you have a big stack of crit items and you are crafting in bulk, you will usually get a string of straight crits or straight non crits, so if you have a 70% chance, its very common to get five or six straight crits or non-crits, and its much rarer to see a combination of both crits and non-crits. Experienced crafters log off after three or four non-crits in a row, to reset the non random RNG. And if you are on a a string of crits . . . you just let the profits pile up.

  4. #54
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Alabama
    Posts
    5,511
    Quote Originally Posted by MithrielWielder View Post
    1) The issue with shards is not the RNG, its the drop rate, which has been intentionally set low. The drop rate is lower than any other craft crit item since the originals at game launch back in March, 2007. The shard drop rate is lower than 1/250, and far lower than the drop rate of mithril shards at MOM launch. There is a reason for this. They have reversed the traditional bottleneck on symbols. Now, symbols are virtually free at the skirm camp, and the limitation on gear is not symbols but shards. Now, its not just LI that are scarce, it is every kind of gear. They want you to play with random gear drops, which was the way it was way back in 2007. People tend to forget (or never knew because they havn't played that long) that crafted gear was not widely available until crafting guilds were added to the game.

    2) This has big implications for the economy, as inflation should come to a halt. Crafters will no longer be able to make money on the AH. And since symbols are virtually free at the skirm camp, raiders will no longer by able to make money selling them. The main source of money now is the 100 silver or so which drops from each mob kill. in a few months I suppose people will be selling crystals.

    3) Crafters have long known that the RNG is not random. Its been that way since 2007. If you have a big stack of crit items and you are crafting in bulk, you will usually get a string of straight crits or straight non crits, so if you have a 70% chance, its very common to get five or six straight crits or non-crits, and its much rarer to see a combination of both crits and non-crits. Experienced crafters log off after three or four non-crits in a row, to reset the non random RNG. And if you are on a a string of crits . . . you just let the profits pile up.
    This crafter knows that real random systems are extremely streaky, much more than most realize. Sure, the computer's system is not a true random number generator, yet when I take the time to collect sufficient detailed data, I've never yet seen this one fail the standard statistical tests of goodness of fit. Compound that with the very low intrinsic event rate, and observer confirmation bias and you get these threads.

    Success rate = 0.7, the expected probability of 5 consecutive successes = 16.8% at the limit. Short sampling may see a very large difference in the recorded result and the central limit theorem expected results. For 6 consecutive successes = 11.7% at the limit. For 5 consecutive failures, you get 0.2%, which if it happens to you makes it memorable (and this contributes to observer confirmation bias). For 6 consecutive failures, you get 0.07% and that is very memorable if it happens to you. What you forget is all of the 'normal' results and you are completely oblivious to the results of all of the other players on your server at the time.
    Last edited by cdq1958; Dec 07 2013 at 08:10 PM.
    "No sadder words of tongue or pen are the words: 'Might have been'." -- John Greenleaf Whittier
    "Do or do not. There is no try." -- Yoda
    On planet Earth, there is a try.
    Indeed, in a world and life full of change, the only constant is human nature (A is A, after all :P).
    We old vets need to keep in mind those who come after us.

  5. #55
    As I have seen the Emerald Shard is not a Crit Item but required component in many of my Metal Smith recipes. My new Westemnet Tools reuiqre an Emerald Shard as a material component.
    [charsig=http://lotrosigs.level3.turbine.com/08207000000264409/01003/signature.png]undefined[/charsig]
    lvl 95 Champion / Rank 10 Arkenstone Server / Officer - Order of the Cresent Dragon / Kuznumshi lvl 95 Reaver / Rank 7 Arkenstone Server / Grunt of Tribe of Aracnophobia

  6. #56
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    10,510
    Quote Originally Posted by Draithenz1971 View Post
    As I have seen the Emerald Shard is not a Crit Item but required component in many of my Metal Smith recipes. My new Westemnet Tools reuiqre an Emerald Shard as a material component.
    There are two places where items like the Emerald Shard shows up. One is "one shot" recipes. The other is Guild Recipes. Bear in mind that Guild recipes always yield the crit'd version of the base recipe...hence the terminology that the shard is the crit item.

  7. #57
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    2 Waterbank Road, Eryn Lelryn, Falathlorn Homesteads
    Posts
    1,875
    Quote Originally Posted by Rainothon View Post

    I've got 3 2nd age symbols waiting in my bags. They were considerably cheaper than emerald shards. I will not buy emerald shards at 100G + pricelevels. The ROR AH situation was exactly reversed. This is my best indication that something's miffy with the emerald shard droprate, as AH prices say something (not everything, but something indeed) about whole server population droprates, not just the individual player.
    And they do sell at that. He's not being sarcastic with the going rate.

    I've sold one of them for 120G buyout, I gave another to a friend as a gift for her to sell and she sold it for 200G. I currently have four more in the AH set at 100g starting/200g buyout, and wouldn't be surprised if they were bought out.
    Tarphindiel~Hu~100, Tolella~Mi~86, Ryeberry~Gu~80, Torfrik~Rk~80, Arindis~Be~60
    Meleras~Wd~50, Minethril~Ca~49, Diorwen~Ch~44, Indiria~Lm~38, Alanda~Bu~32
    And Fourteen Other Alts
    Founder of Gladden's "The Fellowship of the Ping"

  8. #58
    And they say there's no challenge.

    Edit:

    Remember also that the instances of these crit items used to be much more rare (ie, shards/flakes/crests). Then one update it was like there was one every other node. My guess is they are keeping the population rate of these shards low to stimulate economy (huge prices) and will make them more plentiful at later dates (as, I noted, they have done before).

    Idk, I kind of like them erring on the miserly side. Remember when Erebor raids came out and people were getting the 1A symbols on T1 BFE farms? I say more power to em. It's better than a glut. And they are available--if you do all the quests (took me just over 2 weeks as a very casual player), you can get helmingas kindred rep and buy them (I had 750 tokens by the time i got kin, so that's enough for 5 shards alone). So yeah. If they were so plentiful in nodes there would be a glut and then the other 50% of players would complain. I prefer they be careful about letting them out too much.

    O yeah, and um, actually you could make a TON of money these days from guild crafted items . . . assuming of course you won't make them for yourself . . . anyone with a merchant-type approach would be able to make tons of money off crafted items needing the crit shards, and then later buy the items for much cheaper once all the other crafters have equipped themselves and start flooding the market with these items. Sell now, buy later?
    Last edited by livingwaters; Dec 08 2013 at 01:10 AM.

  9. #59
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Finland
    Posts
    2,275
    To me it feels like emerald shards are pretty much removed from crafting nodes since first hotfix after HD update. Before that hotfix, I managed to find three emerald shards when I mined/chopped those ore/wood nodes I came across during my process through the new content. But after that, I have brought two more characters to 95, and focused even more on gathering ore/wood (one character could only chop wood, another one could only mine ore), and I gathered hundreds of wood and ore, and didn't find a single emerald shard. RNG is RNG, but the droprate is way lower than it has been before. One could think that after around 1000 iron/wood gathered, you would find at least one emerald shard, but no.

    It's pretty ironic that now I can have 2nd Age Symbols to create 2nd Age LI's, but I don't have emerald shards for that, while it used to be other way around... I checked AH last night, and there was only one emerald shard there, with 170G buyout. Didn't buy that.

  10. #60
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Michigan
    Posts
    553
    heck, i would have no problem keeping them as rare drops from crafting nodes if their was some repeatable quests to do. that would allow me to earn more wesnment iron coins. or the emerald shards were put on the skirmish vendors. either way i would have to work for the barter items to get the shards.

    while it is nice that warbands quests give 3 coins, i dont exactly consider them repeatable quests.

    from what i have seen the big battles only give jewelry for rewards so that i some emerald shards not required.

    perhaps this is their way of forcing players who craft to struggle and not complete their armor sets until just before the next expansion. *cough, horse lords recipe's.


    lol.

  11. #61
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    2 Waterbank Road, Eryn Lelryn, Falathlorn Homesteads
    Posts
    1,875
    It's definitely highly random, to be sure. Since I started Helm's Deep about five or six days ago, I've gotten somewhere in the area of eight to ten shards from nodes, mostly. A couple came from warbands.

    I've sold five of them for 100-120G each and the rest I've given away at random via Middle-earth pop quizzes. I wasted a couple trying to make decent armor, but decided to use my Universal Ingredient Packs that have been growing mold after that. So going from memory...

    Given away four shards- one to a friend, three to random people in giveaways
    Sold five shards
    Used two shards
    Holding one shard

    So, that's twelve I've gotten.

    It is interesting how the RNG works, to be honest. I've encountered people in game who have been playing since it released, and not gotten a shard and then others like me who have gotten quite a few. But, of course, I play a bit more than the average person as well, so that has upped my time at nodes. I still wear Erebrandir's Horseshoe as well. I've worn it since I got it and have never taken it off but that's unlikely to affect nodes as those are decided when they spawn IIRC.
    Tarphindiel~Hu~100, Tolella~Mi~86, Ryeberry~Gu~80, Torfrik~Rk~80, Arindis~Be~60
    Meleras~Wd~50, Minethril~Ca~49, Diorwen~Ch~44, Indiria~Lm~38, Alanda~Bu~32
    And Fourteen Other Alts
    Founder of Gladden's "The Fellowship of the Ping"

 

 
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