This is exactly it. There is one RNG for the server and everyone doing anything that requires a random number is getting their number from the same RNG function. So the numbers that one player gets when crafting are not consecutive numbers. You get whatever happens to be the next number from the RNG. The four numbers the OP got from the RNG were, in all likelihood, not even spaced every nth number, but rather having n1, n2, and n3 other numbers between them.
Originally Posted by Amrundir
People posting things like this:
Originally Posted by Schaijian
Originally Posted by twittfounder
Are irrelevant since they only apply to four consecutive numbers. The four numbers the OP got while crafting were not consecutive numbers. In order to determine what the actual chance of the OP getting their four failures, you would need to know how many numbers the RNG gave out during that time (possibly other things, too). And we (the players) do not know that information. The OP never stated how they were crafting the four items, but the fewest possible numbers to come out of the RNG would be from selecting 4 as the quantity and craft them. But even so you are still not getting four consecutive numbers from the RNG, only minimizing the number of values the RNG is giving out to others. More numbers would be generated if you crafted one item at a time and made trips to the vault and vendors to get materials for the next item just before crafting it. Still all we could do is guess at how many numbers the RNG generated during that time.
As Maxal stated above, the only real (and correct) way to test the RNG is for Turbine to run a test program that makes tens or hundreds of thousands of calls (or more) to the RNG function and analyzing the data they get (e.g. looking for randomness, trends). This would have to be done whenever anything that goes into creating the executable code is changed (e.g. compiler, CPU).
Like everyone else, I've had good streaks, bad streaks, and results that made me go "hmmmm, that's weird...". But none was ever the fault of the RNG.
"Everyone's got one. Better to be a smart one than a dumb one." - me
"It's people like you that [I]think[/I] you know everything that give those of us that [I]do[/I] a bad name." - me
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