Originally Posted by

**Amrundir**
What you all forget ist, there is no PRNG for you as one player. Instead, there is one PNRG for all random events. It doesn't matter, if the PRNG generates paterns like 1 or 2. You as a player will get the patterns like 1a or 2a, because the other numbers are assigned to events of other players. And it's not only crafting, there are a lot of randon numbers in game (damage, heal, block, parry, ....)

This is exactly it. There is one RNG for the server and everyone doing anything that requires a random number is getting their number from the same RNG function. So the numbers that one player gets when crafting are not consecutive numbers. You get whatever happens to be the next number from the RNG. The four numbers the OP got from the RNG were, in all likelihood, not even spaced every nth number, but rather having n1, n2, and n3 other numbers between them.

People posting things like this:
Originally Posted by

**Schaijian**
There is absolutely nothing wrong here, it´s simple math, if you don´t have 100% chance for success, there is always the chance to fail and in your case 5% for each try - making it not very likely to fail 4 times in a row, but still possible wih a chance of 0.05^4 or 0.000625%. Or in other words: one time in 160.000 you statistically have this bad luck. Sucks but still no failure in the system.

Originally Posted by

**twittfounder**
Yes...even IF you could accomplish that...it still IS possible to not crit 4 times in a row. 0.000625% -- for exactly four conecutive non crits in a row.

However, as unlikely as that is...it is still possible.

Are irrelevant since they only apply to four *consecutive* numbers. The four numbers the OP got while crafting were *not* consecutive numbers. In order to determine what the actual chance of the OP getting their four failures, you would need to know how many numbers the RNG gave out during that time (possibly other things, too). And we (the players) do not know that information. The OP never stated how they were crafting the four items, but the fewest possible numbers to come out of the RNG would be from selecting 4 as the quantity and craft them. But even so you are still not getting four consecutive numbers from the RNG, only minimizing the number of values the RNG is giving out to others. More numbers would be generated if you crafted one item at a time and made trips to the vault and vendors to get materials for the next item just before crafting it. Still all we could do is guess at how many numbers the RNG generated during that time.

As Maxal stated above, the only real (and correct) way to test the RNG is for Turbine to run a test program that makes tens or hundreds of thousands of calls (or more) to the RNG function and analyzing the data they get (e.g. looking for randomness, trends). This would have to be done whenever anything that goes into creating the executable code is changed (e.g. compiler, CPU).

Like everyone else, I've had good streaks, bad streaks, and results that made me go "hmmmm, that's weird...". But none was ever the fault of the RNG.

"Everyone's got one. Better to be a smart one than a dumb one." - me

"It's people like you that [I]think[/I] you know everything that give those of us that [I]do[/I] a bad name." - me

"Eat, drink, and be Merry, 'cause Pippin was a fool of a Took."