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  1. #1
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    4 failures in a row with 95% Critical Successe chanceon Metalsmithing

    Im trying desperately understand something Turbine, why is it when i have a 95 percent chance to critical success on an item do i fail 4 times in a Row?? Seriously, can anyone understand that one?

    thats like being told to scribble anything on a paper and somehow getting it wrong or missing the paper completely over and over.

    Theres got to be something wrong. Please Fix Turbine.

  2. #2
    There is absolutely nothing wrong here, it´s simple math, if you don´t have 100% chance for success, there is always the chance to fail and in your case 5% for each try - making it not very likely to fail 4 times in a row, but still possible wih a chance of 0.05^4 or 0.000625%. Or in other words: one time in 160.000 you statistically have this bad luck. Sucks but still no failure in the system.

  3. #3
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    Its just unfortunate. With 95% chance to crit you still have 5% chance to fail. Although I thought the max crit in game was 84.5% and thats the best tools, optional ingredient, lore and a scroll of ages. So unless I've forgotten something (quite likely) you'd have 15.5% to fail on each attempt.

    Bad luck :/ It hurts, I know.

  4. #4
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    Do you mind me asking how you have 95% crit chance?

    For most crafting the maximum is 75% and then there is that 100% scroll from the store, but I don't recall any way to get 95%

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hazelthorn View Post
    Im trying desperately understand something Turbine, why is it when i have a 95 percent chance to critical success on an item do i fail 4 times in a Row?? Seriously, can anyone understand that one?

    thats like being told to scribble anything on a paper and somehow getting it wrong or missing the paper completely over and over.

    Theres got to be something wrong. Please Fix Turbine.
    It's kind of like winning the lottery. (Only for lotteries, it's a small chance of winning and a big chance of losing. In your case it was the other way around, so maybe it's a reverse lottery? Also, I'm talking about 'regular' lotteries, not the Turbine ones where the odds of winning are much better.)

    If you play the lottery, let's say there's roughly a 1 in 10 000 chance that you'll win a prize of $1000 or more. On one hand, that's pretty unlikely. On the other hand, there's a lot of people playing the lottery, and some of those people are bound to win - you just don't know in advance whether you're one of them.

    So yes, what happened to you was unusual, but it would be even more unusual if this never happened. For crafting, we might like it better that way, but for the lottery, it would mean nobody would ever win!

    Personally, if I were in charge of the 'random' stuff in LOTRO, like crafting, I'd be inclined to make it sort of less than random. I think a system where the least likely occurences on both ends were eliminated would be less frustrating than we have now. For example, such a system might have calculated that for the fourth attempt to not crit would be below the minimum likelihood, and grant you a crit (without even rolling the RNG dice). To keep things fair, the opposite would need to hold as well: if you've already had 10 crits in a row, and the likelihood of an eleventh is below the threshold, then you would not be able to crit that one anymore. The trouble is, when do you start counting, and when does the counter reset? What if people discover that there can be no more than twenty non-crits in a row, and start keeping track? You could craft something cheap, like smelting bronze, and wait for that twentieth non-crit... Now you can be sure that whatever you craft next will be a guaranteed crit, so you take your level 85 crafting materials and without any kind of +crit chance scroll or journal, you get your critted item. I'm afraid the potential for abuse would be too big.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Annariel View Post
    what happened to you was unusual, but it would be even more unusual if this never happened.
    Yep, "streaks" (both good and bad) are perfectly normal. If he failed 25 times in a row I might think there was something wrong with the RNG, but 4? That sort of bad luck probably happens to a player on a server somewhere in LOTRO on a daily basis. And... the converse would be true as well.

    Lots of people complain about streaks, but of course what they really seem to want is the elimination of "bad" streaks. In other words, if they failed last time, they want a guarantee they'll succeed the next. However, should they luck into 4 successes in a row, they want to keep those .

    The game could be coded that way, although it wouldn't be a trivial task to keep track of a "luck" history for everything. One thing I've suggested in the past is for the game to keep a hidden "Luck" attribute on each character, which tracked only a handful of specific things. It would increase whenever a failure occurs on one of those tracked activities. Luck is then used to tilt the RNG a bit to your favor, and when it gets large enough (meaning you've had a lot of bad luck) it makes it nearly certain that you'll succeed soon. Once it pushes you over the top on a failed roll, your current Luck is diminished... dropped by 20%, 40%, whatever works. This creates a sort of "luck hysteresis".

    Of course, even with that sort of Luck, people would still encounter bad streaks. Perhaps just not as bad .

    Khafar

  7. #7
    Statistics are counter-intuitive in so many ways. In this case it's some Gambler's fallacy with a smidge of Law of large numbers.

    We all tend to intuitively expect that every time we fail at a 95% chance of something, the chance that the next one will succeed is higher. But as the saying goes, the system has no memory. Your chances are "reset" everytime and you'll always have a 5% chance of failure (unless there's some extra code in there as Khafar mentioned).

    Moreover, it also seems weird that your experience wouldn't match the stats. You'd expect something like only one failure every 20 tries, because that's what the numbers are saying after all. But the truth is that your experience would only start matching the stats on average after many, many, many more tries than that.
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  8. #8
    And I've sometimes had 4 or more successes in a row with only 5-10% chance. What's your point?

  9. #9
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    The worst luck for me is using a shard, a journal ( which requires another shard), and still failing. But for all the fails, enough back-up material will always net a success...eventually. Sucks yes, but crafting is still very much worth the effort.

  10. #10
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    This is like the 100 year or 500 year flood. What that means in the real world is that in any given year, you can have a flood 1% or 0.5% of the time. So yes, Virginia, you can get back to back 100 year floods, even in the same year.

    Plus, the reports of good and bad streaks do help confirm that the pRNG is working correctly. Systematically kept records, over many trials, will help constrain the success (or failure) rates and help you spot anomalies properly. The reports, by themselves, don't tell you anything else other than that particular person's perception or memory of a particular result (typically one that stands out because it is negative).
    "No sadder words of tongue or pen are the words: 'Might have been'." -- John Greenleaf Whittier
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    On planet Earth, there is a try.
    Indeed, in a world and life full of change, the only constant is human nature (A is A, after all :P).
    We old vets need to keep in mind those who come after us.

  11. #11
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    Can someone please answer my question. How can you get 95% crafting chance? The most I am able to get at level 85 with the best scrolls and tools is 75% (barring the 100% store scroll).

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hazelthorn View Post
    Im trying desperately understand something Turbine, why is it when i have a 95 percent chance to critical success on an item do i fail 4 times in a Row?? Seriously, can anyone understand that one?

    thats like being told to scribble anything on a paper and somehow getting it wrong or missing the paper completely over and over.

    Theres got to be something wrong. Please Fix Turbine.
    If I were you I wouldn't do any air travel, bungie jumping, Russian Roulette or anything like that for a couple of days.

  13. #13
    Also bear in mind that computer generated random numbers aren't actually random. They often lack the "smoothness" you'd get when rolling dice in a cup.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Taravith View Post
    Statistics are counter-intuitive in so many ways. In this case it's some Gambler's fallacy with a smidge of Law of large numbers.

    We all tend to intuitively expect that every time we fail at a 95% chance of something, the chance that the next one will succeed is higher. But as the saying goes, the system has no memory. Your chances are "reset" everytime and you'll always have a 5% chance of failure (unless there's some extra code in there as Khafar mentioned).

    Moreover, it also seems weird that your experience wouldn't match the stats. You'd expect something like only one failure every 20 tries, because that's what the numbers are saying after all. But the truth is that your experience would only start matching the stats on average after many, many, many more tries than that.
    I was recently trying to explain this exact thing to another player. He cannot believe that the RNG is not broken. Even after the question was asked and answered in a 20 Questions onto so long ago.

    All I can say is look at the hotels and casinos in Vegas, Monte Carlo, where ever. They use the Gambler's fallacy to get folks to bet on an outcome and use the law of large numbers to take their 3 to 5% of all the bets.

    Just remember that when you visit a casino, they know how much money they will make if you gamble $1,000 bucks in a slot. Yes you may walk away with some extra cash sometimes, but overall they are making a fortune. Ask a professional gambler. They do not spend their time at the tables with the rest of us.

    Even a coin flip is difficult to explain to folks, because if you cannot understand the math behind it, you start thinking there must be something else wrong. I.e. the coin is not really a fair coin or you must be flipping it wrong.
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  15. #15
    Just for discussion's sake, let's assume that a game actually had a minor bug in its random number generator.

    How would anybody ever report it as a problem? Every time someone complains, they're dog-piled by a dozen posts telling them that they don't understand how random numbers work.

  16. #16
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    The poor results from critical crafting has always been one of my very few complaints about the game. It has never felt right. Either the random number generator really is screwy, or as I've always wondered, the tools or the critical success mats or the bonus scrolls aren't really working properly.

    I have rarely achieved the chance of critical success I've expected from the number displayed in my crafting window. When I see 60 to 70% I feel lucky to achieve 50%. I've been crafting since the summer of 2008. It's just a number displayed in the crafting window. What does it prove, really.

    Always wondered why we can't get a 'rolled' number displayed in the log. Let us see the range of our crafting successes or failures. I bit lore-breaking but might silence us doubters eh?
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  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by enginekid88 View Post
    Can someone please answer my question. How can you get 95% crafting chance? The most I am able to get at level 85 with the best scrolls and tools is 75% (barring the 100% store scroll).
    The OP didn't specify what they were crafting...you can get to 95% on lower tier crafting processes. I know it's unlikely that someone would be too annoyed by the loss of a few low tier materials but I guess his complaint is really just against the high number for probability vs. the real success, not against losing 4 riddermark crests + other mats. If they aren't talking about T7/T8 crafting it's perfectly possible to get to 95% success rate.
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  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by DolorousBob View Post
    The OP didn't specify what they were crafting...you can get to 95% on lower tier crafting processes. I know it's unlikely that someone would be too annoyed by the loss of a few low tier materials but I guess his complaint is really just against the high number for probability vs. the real success, not against losing 4 riddermark crests + other mats. If they aren't talking about T7/T8 crafting it's perfectly possible to get to 95% success rate.
    I'm not seeing how. The crit item gives more of a boost at lower levels, but you're also not able to use the higher tools (-2% from max if you're using the Toolbox or 55 tools, lower if you're using vocation specific tools) or the higher lore scrolls (which is roughly -2% per tier).
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  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Calico View Post
    let's assume that a game actually had a minor bug in its random number generator. How would anybody ever report it as a problem?
    Turbine gets these sorts of complaints all the time. If they get enough of them in one area, they'll go run tests on a large scale to see how it falls out, and of course, it's almost never an actual problem... just bad luck. I've seen at least a dozen threads over the years where Turbine folks have said pretty much that.

    There is one glaring exception, though... the infamous "Wi Flag". Poor Wi. I remember his complaints about this at the Crossroads of Dereth. Naturally, he caught a lot of grief from posters too, but over time, there were just too many people reporting (or seeing) the same thing. I witnessed it myself one night, where we were in a group going after olthoi in some dungeon I forget (BDC, perhaps), and one guy in our party was getting swarmed all night.

    Khafar

  20. #20
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    I'm still waiting for the forum thread entitled, "I critted four times in a row with a 5% crit chance--Fix the RNG!"

    This topic comes up periodically. I suggest that the OP (and any other interested party) look here:

    https://www.lotro.com/forums/showthr...THREE-THOUSAND

    The OP didn't mention how many total crafting attempts were made, but I doubt it was 3,000. There may be many things wrong with this game but, as the thread I posted indicates, the RNG isn't one of them.

    The OP has my sympathy. He was simply very unlucky. It happens.
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  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by TinDragon View Post
    I'm not seeing how. The crit item gives more of a boost at lower levels, but you're also not able to use the higher tools (-2% from max if you're using the Toolbox or 55 tools, lower if you're using vocation specific tools) or the higher lore scrolls (which is roughly -2% per tier).

    e.g.: My level 47 Metalsmith, Silmathryth, can make a level 38 armour; with the toolset i have 25% base crit chance. Add 45% for prilled brimstone = 70%. Add 12.5 % from universal crafting scroll + 9% from Scroll of the ages= 91.5%. Now with the scholar-specific scroll (lvl 85) and lvl 85 tools i would gain another 3 % on that number...i know it's only 94.5% but you get my drift.

    Of course this is just hypothesis as I have no idea what the OP was crafting and how many of these things he could be using to improve crit chance.
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  22. #22
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    I have to question the original poster's math. I know of no way to reach a 95% crit chance. Please explain that to me.

    Yes...even IF you could accomplish that...it still IS possible to not crit 4 times in a row. 0.000625% -- for exactly four conecutive non crits in a row.
    However, as unlikely as that is...it is still possible.

    Unlike the original posters math. Please explain how you were able to reach 95% crit rate.
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  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by DolorousBob View Post
    e.g.: My level 47 Metalsmith, Silmathryth, can make a level 38 armour; with the toolset i have 25% base crit chance. Add 45% for prilled brimstone = 70%. Add 12.5 % from universal crafting scroll + 9% from Scroll of the ages= 91.5%. Now with the scholar-specific scroll (lvl 85) and lvl 85 tools i would gain another 3 % on that number...i know it's only 94.5% but you get my drift.

    Of course this is just hypothesis as I have no idea what the OP was crafting and how many of these things he could be using to improve crit chance.
    I'm gonna assume that if someone doesn't even understand that four non-crits in a row is possible, they probably haven't spent the money or time to get Scroll of the Ages. (Likewise, probably not buying a universal crafting scroll.) You are correct that it's possible, so thank you for that. I just don't see the OP having all of that lined up, and I'm guessing that it was an exaggeration.
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  24. #24
    In my experience the RNG is flawed in a 'color'-sense. It generates statistically way too many same results in a row. The fact that the true/false distibution flattens out in the long term, doensn't make it a fair RNG by definition.

    Here are two random sequences:

    Pattern 1
    101101010001101100101100001101 110010110100101

    Pattern 2
    111110001111100000100011111111 001000001110000

    Both sequences may have about an equal number of 0's and 1's, but the structures are different. The first pattern is 'smooth random', the second pattern is 'sticky random'. Should you use these patterns as a source for an audio synthesizer, then the first pattern would be called 'white noise' and the second pattern 'colored noise' (pink, red, brown, whatever).

    Most synthesizers have at least a white noise generator, because in combination with a filter it can cover a large audio spectrum. Colored noises are more limited, only useful for low frequencies and/or grainy effects.

    Back to LOTRO. It's RNG appears very colored, definitely not white. It's only 'fair' over long sessions. Technically it's too colored toward low frequencies. The several comments here about how fine everything turns out in the long term, actually confirms this (FWIW: period is inverse of frequency).

    But these comments are not really justifications. The fact that randomness works out well in the long term, doesn't mean it shouldn't work well (within statistical fairness etc.) in the short term. That's like saying "there is no financial crisis, it's just fluctuating, everyting will be good again in 50 years, just consider yourself rich".

    Bottom line: a fair RNG should produce results more or less like white noise. LOTROs RNG appears way too colored and it would be good if they could improve that.

  25. #25
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    Furthermore, the psuedo-random number generator of Lotro is not only colored, and not colored that well, but the way the mechanics are written it is a poor simulator of crafting *anything* in the real world. And it's not hard to write code that ensures "smoothness" or that would in fact more closely emulate the performance of artists with a high degree of skill either. It's just lazy coding to do it the way they have.

 

 
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