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Thread: Game of Golds

  1. #26
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Czech Republic
    Posts
    184
    OK. "Funny" story. I am still trying to get my golden off-hand from IP, still nothing. But now the funny part. Friend of mine, who recently came back to game, leveled up his guardian. He was in need of marks so we used 90minutes boost for marks and did 7 IP runs. On run number 5 he got golden ring (as expected). On run number 6, he got another one. So after countless runs and countless hours of grind we got nothing and someone who just got into game have two golden items within 20 minutes. Dont get me wrong, I am glad at least someone got something but I really understand why some people are leaving the game because after night like this, I am also considering to quit. Game is not rewarding at all, loot system is horrible and only make people angry which is not a reason why people play games. To be angry. Usually people play games to relax.

    /rant off
    Last edited by Galborion; Jul 01 2013 at 02:01 AM.
    [IMG]http://img546.imageshack.us/img546/7323/0hn4.png[/IMG]

    [COLOR=#008000]85 lvl alts: champion, guard, captain, warden, burg, minnie, RK, LM[/COLOR]

  2. #27
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    1,027
    Quote Originally Posted by YesMaam View Post
    I don't know what the trigger is to get a gold exactly and I know its a long stretch like accusing someone they are guilty without proof but it is my belief that there is another factor aside from raw probability to a certain drop.

    Why do I think this?

    A) Statistics - I've taken statistics courses and I know most people on Brandy which is a very populated server. I've spoken to many of them and there is a perfectly consistent trend. Certain people get golds and some don't. There are 2 people in my kin that get golds left and right up to nearly double digits and people that have played the same amount and gotten 0. I really don't care if turbine came back and said to be its just a 1/100 chance. The chance of 2 people getting 10 each and 20 getting 1 for my kin alone let alone the entire server is infinity to one. Then look at my story about the hunter with 2 gold earrings. You can count on your hand the people on our server that have the gold earring yet this guy has 2 and a third age bow cause he is a total random with a couple runs under his belt. Yet a kinny has done over 300 Forno runs (that is alot for a 15 min run) and not even gotten the teal.

    B) Patterns - Ever noticed many noobs get them on the first run? I see it in game chat all the time - what is this? wow. Gold. It seems a large majority of lucky people always get it within the first couple runs, around 100 runs, or a huge amount 400+. It's very consistent patern - rarley do i see a standard 60 or high medium of 250 its always drastic in either direction or a regular medium.

    Call my data flawed as it is from the eyes of one man and I am free to exaggerate but I say these numbers aren't from 20 people, this is the observation of hundreds of players many of whom I've spoken to.

    Point A - as the people playing tends towards infinity, even the really unlikely outcomes will inevitably occur. Now the amount of players is not infinite but this doesn't happen in every kinship and there's probably thousands of kinships.

    Point B - recall bias, people are more likely to remember and even tell.others about the extremes in drop rates. You should.know this having done a stats course, its something thats essential to control for in science.

    I'll post my numbers when I can get in game, I've been comparatively lucky as I have two golds, annuminas jacket and Sammy pocket. Will confirm but less than 30 runs of each I guess. I did feel very lucky at the time especially the OE run, I had pugged it with the same group around 10 times the previous day and theyd done the same on day X but I only joined them.for their final run. One player had been after their gold.... Poor guy had to apologize on.behalf of.the RNG to.him lol

    Edit: definately "lucky" Crtl K tells me 32 sambrog runs, , 15 OE, think 4 of those were post golds (OE). I'm sure I'd be more critical of the RNG if A I was a better player, B hadn't been so lucky or C played more but as it is I'm irritatingly (to you) satisfied
    Last edited by Eldarian_Grace; Jul 03 2013 at 01:04 PM.
    Elendilmir - 95 Hunter Berenthalion - 80ish Burg Berendybuck - baby warden Berenion.

    Worst Reaver on the server BerendyBash - R4

  3. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Eldarian_Grace View Post
    Point A - as the people playing tends towards infinity, even the really unlikely outcomes will inevitably occur.
    ^ This. And you'll find you don't even have to travel very far towards infinity.

    Many don't realize exactly how common these "unlikely" scenarios really are because they seem so unlikely on the surface. Anyone familiar with stats would probably recall the Birthday problem, giving a group of 23 random people a 50% chance that two will have their birthdays on the same day of the year (insert Despicable Me minion "Whaaaaa?" here); a seemingly incredulous claim on the surface... sometimes you just gotta love math.

    Perhaps more obviously relevant to this conversation... random chance that's sampled can be equally misleading/misunderstood as imperfect when the sample shows a skew. Many observe a binomial distribution (or at least the start of one) in the sample and cry foul on the RNG when in fact the odds are a binomial distribution is exactly what you're going to get (and yes, they can and will be discouraging for some subset of the population, that subset being larger and larger the lower the drop rate is).

    Couple that with things like observer's bias, hyperbole, games of telephone, and the "vocality of the negatively reinforced" it's going to look pretty ugly on a place like the forums for relatively low drop rate items, even in spite of a perfectly functional RNG.

    Still, if you find yourself compelled to compile some drop-rate statistics (and honestly, for your own good, I hope you aren't), be sure to read up on how to properly conduct the experiment, gather the data, understand the sample population, and draw reasonable conclusions. It can be interesting stuff, and along the way you'll probably discover that, unless you have access to mountains of properly drawn data, you're unable to come anywhere close to concluding the RNG is biased in any meaningful way.

    I'd guess the folks at Turbine who know the RNG and loot tables best find these kinds of threads somewhat funny and/or an interesting psychological and social perspective because, for better or for worse, in the end that's all threads like these turn out to be. If even only a handful of people take a couple minutes to read up on the Birthday problem referenced above I'd be happy this particular thread will have been at least a little worthwhile to some.
    [CENTER]Othrandir[/CENTER]
    [CENTER]Resistance - Brandywine[/CENTER]

  4. #29
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
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    Holland
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    Quote Originally Posted by Farasilion View Post


    All these efforts for a stupid hunter pocket, good thing I got it in the end. No wounder I hate this instance with a passion now.

    Other my unsuccessful tries are not worth mentioning compared to this.
    lol, well and i got 2 of them... much rather get something i can use now... they should have made the golden ones either not bound or unique... now i have to vendor sell it while i have plenty of ingame friends i could make very happy with it...

    btw what plug in is that one you're using to show these stats?
    Last edited by Flixxer; Jul 02 2013 at 03:13 AM.
    Flixxer - Hunter - Imladris - 100 R7 ---- Danielleth - Minstrel - Imladris - 22
    Zaireth - Rune-keeper - Imladris - 73 -- Ariannasophia - Warden - Imladris - 14
    Flixxer - Champion - Eldar - 54

  5. #30
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Czech Republic
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flixxer View Post
    btw what plug in is that one you're using to show these stats?
    It is not a plugin. It is ingame functionality. Press Ctrl+K and you will see.
    [IMG]http://img546.imageshack.us/img546/7323/0hn4.png[/IMG]

    [COLOR=#008000]85 lvl alts: champion, guard, captain, warden, burg, minnie, RK, LM[/COLOR]

  6. #31
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
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    Holland
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    Quote Originally Posted by Galborion View Post
    It is not a plugin. It is ingame functionality. Press Ctrl+K and you will see.
    lol, well i guess there is still a lot to learn from the game
    Flixxer - Hunter - Imladris - 100 R7 ---- Danielleth - Minstrel - Imladris - 22
    Zaireth - Rune-keeper - Imladris - 73 -- Ariannasophia - Warden - Imladris - 14
    Flixxer - Champion - Eldar - 54

  7. #32
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Posts
    708
    I kind of like the new loot system 'in theory', but it is the actual application that is flawed. The people at Turbine who look at the drop rate percentage may say 'well, things drop at the expected rate', but they have no way of knowing how many drops are duplicates that no one can use. Making it so people can't get multiple drops they can't use would really help everyone. It seems the only real solution is to have a 'Token' that could be bartered.

  8. #33
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Location
    AFK in Dol Amroth
    Posts
    810
    Not logged atm, but im guessing im around 450 kills for peak,still no dagger. My kill count for fornost is pretty high too by now,no teal/gold earring....but by now I managed to get 2 gold cloaks, and when the update went live, my first gb dropped gold burg pocket for my hunter.....had a friend who got burg gold on their hunt and somehow convinced a GM to switch it ...now hes got pocket with lower stats....

    Multiple golds should be bartered -.- or made unique
    [center][color=cyan]Fellowship Hadacar: I now have a mental image of a little pea with a NE Patriot's logo painted on it.[/color][/center]
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  9. #34
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Arkansas
    Posts
    387
    I've long retired from the game, so haven't seen the current "gold gear climate" on my server lately, but when I was still playing it was basically a GUARANTEE that if someone was specifically awful and/or noobish, or someone who was a 'casual' that logged in maybe 3 nights a week and ended up in a raid or instance, they'd get a gold piece. A gold piece they might not even ever use in a setting that isn't a daily instance or landscape quest. It was definitely one of the compounded reasons I ended up quitting, as there really was no way to advance my character anymore than grinding mind-numbing instances for days, and since I tended to always be a contributing member of the group with a good build, I was guaranteed to get absolutely nothing. Then I had to watch all these people with no use for the items bragging on them.

    For example, when you could still do the DDG skip, I asked a champion from my kin to chank it and said there's a chance he could get the +16% crit multiplier boots as incentive.. I'd been running this repeatedly farm mode for a single TEAL ring for weeks. This champ comes in and chanks it for us, gets his GOLD BOOTS AND THE TEAL MIGHT POCKET in three runs. His FIRST three runs in DDG since 65 cap. Now, he was a great champ and all, but this seems to support the "run random casual instances, get gold" theory.

    There were also various awful players on our server who, over a period of a week or two, had completely decked out characters with multiple golds and teals from hard-to-acquire instances (rings from Lost Temple, even some Stoneheight and Fornost jewelery). It was quite sad and amusing at the same time to see them using these pieces paired with other types of gear that really didn't make any sense, but still enraging that random luck is all that matters.

    I'm fairly certain some characters also have better RNGs than others, possibly tied to specific instances as well. I know plenty of people who have characters that are swimming in gold items for no apparent reason (my girlfriend's minstrel got SIX of the gold hats from BfE. Yes, SIX of them.), including multiples of the same that have no use except happening to be dyed differently. I noticed a trend where if someone managed to get one gold, there was a very good chance they'd end up with quite a few more.

    Anyways, in my opinion, it is unacceptable that dumb luck is now the only requirement for good endgame loot. I spent 6 years playing and refining my classes and skill rotations, instance and raid strats, putting in the effort to know my roles inside and out, just so that I end up helping random "2 week program" fresh 85s get better gear than I could ever have in that amount of time thanks to the broken RNG. Why don't they just run daily lotteries with these items in it for one person on each server a day instead? It wouldn't be any different.

    /endrant
    [center]RIP Character signature generator, June 2013.[/center]
    [center]Theiol, Fervar, Turthonn, and Vanka, [i]retired LOTRO[/i]|Croue, Folter, [i]Rift - Shatterbone shard[/i][/center]

  10. #35
    It's come to the point now that when the chest is opened I oooh and aaah over my loot: a bounty and a relic and sometimes a rune. I might as well learn to be happy with that as that is all I get. Once in awhile a purple, very rarely a teal and a gold is never going to happen for me. I've lowered my expectations to meet the reality.

    It does free me from thinking I need to do 400+ runs of an instance for one item for one toon. It does leave me with a "what to do now" question: if Wildermore landscape is too boring to repeat on my alts and Wildermore rep is too much of a grind, instances aren't going to drop anything good for me, what shall I do? Lately I just tab out and do something else, keeping an eye on kin chat in case I get motivated to do something, but that's happening less and less.

  11. #36
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    5
    I just want to get another gold bracelet for my champ. in that amount of school I only got 4 gold shoulders. I have 184 elendil and just spamming most school or SHt2c for seals 200 sh not really have the faith that the shoes will drop anytime soon. just want another gold bracelet for my champ. got 36 bells of dale cloak drops around the 10+ runs it dropped 2x we have 3 champs in the first run it dropped on the other champ, next run it dropped both me and the other champ that doesn't have it which is crazy.

    some random champ solo vids on level 85 3 man instance
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  12. #37
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    121
    Took me 239 runs to get my cappy shield in Sword Halls T2C.

  13. #38
    Last I checked I was around 150 various DG runs with no boots on my champ, as well as no teal pocket from dungeons.
    onlevel [B]TOO[/B] 1/5 [B]OD [/B]2/6 [B]BG [/B]1/3scaled : [B]LOLEREBOR [/B]2/3 [B]OD [/B]6/6 [B]BG[/B] 3/3 [B]HELEGROD [/B]3/3

  14. #39
    My 85 minstrel is my main. I have the gold ring, and that is all. I run about 5 instances/raids per night on average, unless I'm grinding a specific instance with fellow kin members, and then it can be 10 to 15 runs in a row in the same instance. We've run Sword Halls and Sambrog for example a few hundred times and no gold, except the rare one that drops to a brand new 85 that happens to run with us on their first time. I would much rather have to save up 100 tokens and run the instance 100 times, and know that I was for sure going to get the gold at the end of it, than to just wait for fate to decide to drop a gold in my bag, or run it several hundred times and take the chance that it will never drop. It seems so insane to run the same thing over and over hoping each time for a gold and then to never get one.

  15. #40
    I honestly do not understand why people are running these instances hundreds of times to get the gold pieces. Within a couple of weeks of release we knew that the drop rate was around 1%. That was a clear signal to me to ignore them. If I wanted an easy gear farm I'd play Diablo 3. Nonetheless, this has worked to perfection for Turbine. They've had everyone spinning the hamster wheel for months as a substitute for real content. There is no incentive for them to make a better game because people indulge in their terrible game design. Astutely played mon ami.
    Adaaon (Minstrel), Gwydionn (Hunter), Tarrann (Burglar)
    [url]http://thenoldor.guildlaunch.com[/url]

 

 
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