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  1. #1

    Exclamation Hobbit Presents: Know the odds.

    If you decide to spend real money to open Hobbit Presents, I feel it is important that you know what you might win, and what the odds are. This post is not intended to discuss the appropriateness of Hobbit Presents in Middle-earth, whether they are a form of gambling, or if they might encourage compulsive behavior. Please use the official discussion thread for that.

    These are just my observations from testing that I want to share with you. Please feel free to contribute your own observations or opinions about the actual rewards, their relative value, or the odds of winning them.

    If you'd like to refer your friends to this thread in-game, tell them to visit tinyurl.com/hobbitpresents.

    These odds are a simple analysis of my observations opening 13,934 Silver Hobbit Presents and 11,039 Gold Hobbit Presents playing a level 85 burglar between May 10 and May 13, 2013 with build 4 of Update 11 on the Bullroarer public test server. This would represent more than $10,000 worth of Mithril Coins on the live servers. (Or if these had been free daily and weekly presents, they would represent more than 38 years of Silver Presents and 212 years of Gold Presents.)

    First, a note about gift levels. The rewards you receive from opening a present depend on your character's level. These are grouped into rewards for levels 1-9, 10-19, 20-29, ..., 60-69, 70-79, 80-85. You can win piles of metal scraps that can be sold to a vendor for progressively more coin at each level grouping, similar to skirmish bounties.

    You can also win Mathom-hunter's Armour (teal-quality) or Fine Mathom-hunter's Armour (gold-quality) with stats corresponding to level 1, 10, 20, ..., 60, 70, 80. You may win light, medium, or heavy armour pieces depending on your character's class.

    Some items can't be won at lower levels. For example, from levels 1-9, you can only win Stat Tomes from Rank I to IV; whereas at levels 80-85, you can win them from Rank I to VIII. You can't win rewards related to legendary items at lower levels, either.

    Even though I opened a huge number of presents, there is still a statistically significant margin of error in some cases, since some rewards were observed very rarely. I have grouped together the armour, stat tomes, and stat tomes bundles in this presentation in an attempt to minimize this error.

    In the following table, the first group of rewards is only found in Silver Presents. The last group of rewards is only found in Gold Presents.

    Turbine can and probably will change the rewards and their odds throughout the lifetime of this system. If there are opportunities to test these changes, I'll attempt to keep this post updated.
    Last edited by Fredelas; May 13 2013 at 06:37 AM.

  2. #2

    Post Level 80-85 Hobbit Presents Estimated Odds

    These odds were originally calculated for Update 11. They have changed since Update 11.3 with the addition of Large Bags of Bounder's Tokens. I have not tested the new odds, but I'll leave these here for anyone who is curious.

    Silver Odds Item Gold Odds
    Common
    16.69% Giant Pile of Copper Scraps
    7.64% 5 Dale-men's Crams
    7.26% 3 +10% Run Speed Boost (90 min)
    7.18% 3 +5% Attack Damage (90 min)
    7.08% 3 Scrolls of Max Morale and Power (90 minutes)
    2.39% 3 20% Mount Speed (90 minutes)
    2.26% 3 Combat Run Speed Boosts
    2.22% Fused Copper Relics
    2.02% Simple Rally Horn
    Uncommon Common
    14.73% Giant Pile of Silver Scraps 21.38%
    5.84% Rejuvenation Potion 8.09%
    2.91% Scroll of Defence 4.25%
    2.91% Tome of Finesse 4.16%
    2.78% Fused Iron Relics 4.27%
    2.06% 3 Universal Power Potions 2.47%
    1.82% Landscape Soldier Token 2.32%
    1.82% 3 Universal Morale Potions 2.69%
    0.46% Enhanced XP Supply 0.80%
    Rare Uncommon
    5.99% Mathom-hunter's Armour 14.75%
    Incomparable Rare
    0.76% Giant Pile of Gold Scraps 6.67%
    0.26% +100% Mark Acquisition (90 min) 2.47%
    0.24% Universal Toolkit 2.45%
    0.23% Relic Removal Scroll 2.35%
    0.22% Tome of Extraordinary Experience 2.48%
    0.20% Reputation Acceleration Tome 2.33%
    0.20% Fused Aged Relics 2.30%
    0.18% +100% Craft XP Boost 2.41%
    0.16% Crystal of Remembrance 1.09%
    0.13% Stat Tome (Rank I-VIII) 1.49%
    0.10% 50 Mithril Coins 1.24%
    0.10% Star-lit Crystal 1.20%
    0.09% Legacy Tier Upgrade 1.32%
    0.09% Scroll of Perfect Crafting Lore 1.05%
    Legendary Incomparable
    0.99% Fine Mathom-hunter's Armour 2.97%
    Legendary
    5 Fused Calenard Relics 0.22%
    5 Legacy Tier Upgrade 0.20%
    Tarnished Symbol of Celebrimbor 0.18%
    Stat Tomes Bundle 0.16%
    Worn Symbol of the Elder King 0.14%
    200 Mithril Coins 0.10%
    Last edited by Fredelas; Aug 26 2013 at 05:27 PM. Reason: Warned that these odds were estimated prior to update 11.3

  3. #3

    Lightbulb Buying gold directly from Turbine

    One interesting conclusion that can be reached is that Mithril Coins (and therefore cash) now translate directly into gold, silver, and copper by selling piles of metal scraps to a vendor.

    Every Mithril Coin invested in a level 80-85 Silver Present is worth approximately 218 silver.

    Every Mithril Coin invested in a level 80-85 Gold Present is worth approximately 71 silver.

    (Since the armour can also be sold to a vendor, you could get a slightly better rate by selling it, too.)

    If one Mithril Coin is worth approximately 10 cents, this means getting 100 gold from Silver Presents would cost about $45.85.

    To look at it from another perspective, this also means level 80-85 players who log in every day will get about 1.5 gold on average each week.

  4. #4

    Post Risk versus reward

    There is some risk involved in spending Mithril Coins to open Hobbit Presents.

    On average, for every 2 Mithril Coins (16-20 TP) you spend opening Silver Presents at level 80-85, you will get about 33 TP worth of LOTRO Store items as rewards.

    On average, for every 8 Mithril Coins (64-80 TP) you spend opening Gold Presents at level 80-85, you will get about 98 TP worth of LOTRO Store items as rewards.

    (This assumes you have a character on the server that will actually use all of the rewards, and you would have actually spent those 33 or 98 TP buying all those items.)

    However, in both of these cases, you may get (and in fact, you will most often get) an item worth 0 TP. So depending on your luck, the risk may be significant.

    If you're only hoping to win more Mithril Coins, don't bet on it. For every 2 Mithril Coins you spend on Silver Presents at level 80-85, you're likely to win 0.05 Mithril Coins back. For every 8 Mithril Coins you spend on Gold Presents at level 80-85, you're likely to win 0.82 Mithril Coins back.
    Last edited by Fredelas; May 13 2013 at 06:22 AM.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    257
    Quote Originally Posted by Fredelas View Post
    There is some risk involved in spending Mithril Coins to open Hobbit Presents.

    On average, for every 2 Mithril Coins (16-20 TP) you spend opening Silver Presents at level 80-85, you will get about 33 TP worth of LOTRO Store items as rewards.

    On average, for every 8 Mithril Coins (64-80 TP) you spend opening Gold Presents at level 80-85, you will get about 98 TP worth of LOTRO Store items as rewards.

    (This assumes you have a character on the server that will actually use all of the rewards, and you would have actually spent those 33 or 98 TP buying all those items.)

    However, in both of these cases, you may get (and in fact, you will most often get) an item worth 0 TP. So depending on your luck, the risk may be significant.

    If you're only hoping to win more Mithril Coins, don't bet on it. For every 2 Mithril Coins you spend on Silver Presents at level 80-85, you're likely to win 0.05 Mithril Coins back. For every 8 Mithril Coins you spend on Gold Presents at level 80-85, you're likely to win 0.82 Mithril Coins back.
    First, thank you for what was obviously a huge task. While most of us were just simply enjoying the new content, you attacked it with a specific purpose.

    Next. To those who were wailing and gnashing their teeth over "pay to win" you can stop now, thanks. If it takes $10000 worth of Mithril Coins to "earn" a .14% chance at a Worn Symbol, then I say that they deserve that symbol. We can all relax now, and get back to enjoying the main point of being here. Snarking at the content (or lack of) in Helms Deep.

  6. #6
    I'm not a fan of the slot machine set-up but it seems a little better than lotteries in that always win something rather than just hitting big.
    The paid "resets" are what trouble me most.

  7. #7

    Thumbs up

    thanks alot for all that work and sheets and calculating and such stuff.
    very helpful to me what to expect about them after u11 ;D
    and nice to see that some members spend so much time to get things known and share them with evry1!
    *all 5 thumbs up*

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    Mostly Middle Earth
    Posts
    698
    +Rep for this, excellent and informative information.

    While I welcome the addition of Hobbit presents, I still think that it's been implemented in a very tacky way.

  9. #9
    Fantastic work! Thank you very much. It's very insightful!

    +Rep (even though rep is going away)
    Last edited by SabrielofLorien; May 13 2013 at 07:40 AM. Reason: typo
    Whoever says “I” creates the “you.” Such is the trap of every conscience. The “I” signifies both solitude and rejection of solitude. Words name things and then replace them. Whoever says tomorrow, denies it. Tomorrow exists only for him who does not seek it. And yesterday? Yesterday is Kolvillàg: a name to forget, a word already forgotten.

    The Oath: A Novel by Elie Wiesel

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Datheor View Post
    Next. To those who were wailing and gnashing their teeth over "pay to win" you can stop now, thanks. If it takes $10000 worth of Mithril Coins to "earn" a .14% chance at a Worn Symbol, then I say that they deserve that symbol. We can all relax now, and get back to enjoying the main point of being here. Snarking at the content (or lack of) in Helms Deep.
    I wonder if it would be easier to interpret these numbers if I expressed them as ratios instead of as percentages.

    For example, would 1 : 690 be easier to understand than 0.14%?

    Approximately 1 out of every 690 level 80-85 Gold Presents will contain a Worn Symbol of the Elder King. (That's not a typo or a bug, by the way. The level 80-85 Gold Presents really are intended to reward the level 75 first age crafting item.)

  11. #11
    These odds are a simple analysis of my observations opening 13,934 Silver Hobbit Presents and 11,039 Gold Hobbit Presents playing a level 85 burglar between May 10 and May 13, 2013 with build 4 of Update 11 on the Bullroarer public test server. This would represent more than $10,000 worth of Mithril Coins on the live servers.
    How many hours did it take during those 3 days to open the @25,000 presents?

    I'm curious if you clicked the spin button 25,000 times over several hours and then did the calculations later or if you did X number of spins then calcs and then X number more spins.

    Do you know how much you can spend in 1 hour of spinning the wheel?

    fwiw: % works better for me than ratios but 1:690 is pretty telling too.
    Whoever says “I” creates the “you.” Such is the trap of every conscience. The “I” signifies both solitude and rejection of solitude. Words name things and then replace them. Whoever says tomorrow, denies it. Tomorrow exists only for him who does not seek it. And yesterday? Yesterday is Kolvillàg: a name to forget, a word already forgotten.

    The Oath: A Novel by Elie Wiesel

  12. #12
    WOW, thanks soo much

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by SabrielofLorien View Post
    How many hours did it take during those 3 days to open the @25,000 presents?

    I'm curious if you clicked the spin button 25,000 times over several hours and then did the calculations later or if you did X number of spins then calcs and then X number more spins.

    Do you know how much you can spend in 1 hour of spinning the wheel?

    fwiw: % works better for me than ratios but 1:700 is pretty telling too.
    It took me about 10 hours of clicking each day, including lunch breaks. (You should see the muscles on my index finger now!) That's about 600 presents an hour I opened, on average. I was watching Netflix at the same time, but it was actually kind of addictive watching those presents fill up my bags with every click.

    I actually used two accounts to test on at the same time, so I was clicking back and forth between two windows to speed things up. One was free, and one was VIP to see if the odds were any different. (They're weren't.)

    I turned on chat logging to catch all the results, then imported those files into SPSS (a statistics program) for analysis later. If anyone else would like these chat logs to do your own analysis (or double-check my math), please send me a private message and I'll e-mail them to you.

  14. #14
    If one Mithril Coin is worth approximately 10 cents...
    2 MC/silver present and 8 MC/gold present @ 600 presents per hour.

    I know nothing about Mithril Coin costs in real money but how much real money would 600 presents represent? How much could someone spend in just 1 hour of clicking. Is that really $120US - $480US?
    Whoever says “I” creates the “you.” Such is the trap of every conscience. The “I” signifies both solitude and rejection of solitude. Words name things and then replace them. Whoever says tomorrow, denies it. Tomorrow exists only for him who does not seek it. And yesterday? Yesterday is Kolvillàg: a name to forget, a word already forgotten.

    The Oath: A Novel by Elie Wiesel

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    257
    Quote Originally Posted by Fredelas View Post
    I wonder if it would be easier to interpret these numbers if I expressed them as ratios instead of as percentages.

    For example, would 1 : 690 be easier to understand than 0.14%?

    Approximately 1 out of every 690 level 80-85 Gold Presents will contain a Worn Symbol of the Elder King. (That's not a typo or a bug, by the way. The level 80-85 Gold Presents really are intended to reward the level 75 first age crafting item.)
    Without knowing how many people will be opening a gold every day, that may work out to be 1 person a day per server, or 1 a week. Do we know the drop rate for those same symbols in the raids? I am asking to gain perspective.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by SabrielofLorien View Post
    2 MC/silver present and 8 MC/gold present @ 600 presents per hour.

    I know nothing about Mithril Coin costs in real money but how much real money would 600 presents represent? How much could someone spend in just 1 hour of clicking. Is that really $120US - $480US?
    Yes, someone really could spend that much money on Hobbit Presents in one hour. Maybe even more, depending on how quick their reactions are and how fast they can empty their bags.

    Quote Originally Posted by Datheor View Post
    Without knowing how many people will be opening a gold every day, that may work out to be 1 person a day per server, or 1 a week. Do we know the drop rate for those same symbols in the raids? I am asking to gain perspective.
    No, no one knows for sure how often these things drop from actual in-game activities.

  17. #17
    Thanks for all the work Fredelas!

    Even without your work, i can see from all my raids and instances that Turbine has decided that I'm not worth any good loot so there's no way I would spend any thing, ever, on another chance. Maybe those who have won multiple gold items, scrolls, tomes, crystals, etc. want to try their luck.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    257
    Thank you again Fredelas. You are a better man that I for this effort.

  19. #19
    Hallo
    Gibts diese liste auch auf deutsch kann leider nicht so gut english

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Posts
    921
    Wow that's alot of work you put in there, thanks for the heads up.

  21. Quote Originally Posted by Luritan View Post
    Hallo
    Gibts diese liste auch auf deutsch kann leider nicht so gut english
    Es müsste sich jemand die Mühe machen, das alles zu übersetzen. Da ich persönlich die Hobbit Geschenke komplett ignorieren werde, werde ich mir diese Arbeit nicht antun. Ich denke, die reinen Prozentwerte sprechen für sich.... Es mag sein, dass man zu 100% etwas bekommt, ob der tatsächliche Gewinn jedoch das investierte Geld wert ist, muss jeder für sich entscheiden. Es gibt in jedem Fall -wie bei jedem Glücksspiel- nur wenige hochwertige Gewinne und die Chance einen davon zu bekommen ist reichlich niedrig. Ist wie Lotto spielen, außer dass Turbine ignoriert, dass es sowas in der Geschichte einfach nicht gibt.


    ---- English translation ----

    Quote Originally Posted by Luritan View Post
    Hello
    does this list exist in German too? My English is not good enough
    Someone would have to take on all the work to translate it. For I am going to completely ignore the Hobbit gifts I won't take the chore to do it. I think the pure percentage values speak for themselves... It might be that we will get something with 100% certainty, whether the actual prize is worth the invested money would be for everyone to decide for themselves. In any case -as in every gambling game- there are only a few prizes of high value and the chance to get them is quite small. It is like a lottery except that Turbine ignores the fact that something like this does not exist in the lore.
    [URL="http://the-strongfoots.net"]the-strongfoots.net[/URL]

  22. #22

    Thumbs up

    Excellent work and information.

    My two quick cents: I have no intention of EVER spending currency of any sort, real or virtual, to get more Hobbit Presents but I like the general idea - I mean, free stuff is good for loot coin if nothing else, right? I do take issue with the way they are presented (slot machine interface, push to 'buy' more) and would be far happier if we could just click to open and see the item we got, plain-jane style. Alas, I don't expect that to happen.

    And as long as they have that annoying 'universal alert' box, they ought to stick the Hobbit Presents icon into it. (And restore standalone LI and mail alerts while they're at it, but that's a discussion for another thread.)

    Thanks for the info though; hopefully those tempted to gamble on HPs will take the odds into consideration.

  23. #23
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    32
    The information is great. Thanks for computing it.

    In my point of view about armor sets from Hobbit Presents, they are just not worth it, my Hybold sets are even better than them. I got Fine Mathom Hunter's Helmet, i was so excited to get my first gold armor, however, equipping it making me even weaker than using Hybold set.

    Items like first age symbol, tome bundle, etc are great.

  24. #24
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Finland
    Posts
    2,274
    Excellent work, as always, Fredelas. Thank you!
    Quote Originally Posted by Fredelas View Post
    Approximately 1 out of every 690 level 80-85 Gold Presents will contain a Worn Symbol of the Elder King. (That's not a typo or a bug, by the way. The level 80-85 Gold Presents really are intended to reward the level 75 first age crafting item.)
    Is it really? I might be imagining things but I thought I saw a dev post somewhere saying it's a bug, but like I said, I might be wrong. If "the jackpot" for lvl 85 player is a crafting item for lvl 75 LI, that is.... well, although I don't own a single 1st Age Legendary, I would still rather win some relics than switch my lvl 85 3rd Age item for lvl 75 1st Age item.

  25. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Gilean-EU View Post
    Excellent work, as always, Fredelas. Thank you!

    Is it really? I might be imagining things but I thought I saw a dev post somewhere saying it's a bug, but like I said, I might be wrong. If "the jackpot" for lvl 85 player is a crafting item for lvl 75 LI, that is.... well, although I don't own a single 1st Age Legendary, I would still rather win some relics than switch my lvl 85 3rd Age item for lvl 75 1st Age item.
    It was a bug that Worn Symbols of the Elder King were originally found in Riddermark Gift Boxes during the Anniversary Festival. That was eventually fixed so that Tarnished Symbols of the Elder King would come from those Riddermark Gift Boxes instead. You can also rarely find a Tarnished Symbol of the Elder king in Riddermark-bound Lootboxes since Update 11. One of these things is probably what you're thinking of.

    According to Amlug during beta testing on Bullroarer, Worn Symbols of the Elder King (the level 75 item) are intended to come from level 80-85 Gold Hobbit Presents. This is part of Turbine's commitment not to make end-game gear attainable through micro-transactions.
    Last edited by Fredelas; May 16 2013 at 04:55 AM.

 

 
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