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  1. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Namesse View Post
    Indeed. I feel unlucky when I compare my toons to some kinmates and friends who have multiple gold items and good teal instance jewelry and I have none. It makes me believe that I'm never going to get anything good, and rather than being hopeful that the next instance run will get me something other than a bounty and a relic, I'm really discouraged and think I'm not going to get anything anyway. This leads to me wondering why I should bother.

    This is a case where perception is reality in regards to the pRNG.
    After 120 runs on Bfe and no symbol drop I became so frutrated that i have started a Alt because i cannot find any reason to keep pushing my 85 champ in end game raidings with riculous loot tables.
    [charsig=http://lotrosigs.level3.turbine.com/032020000004cf818/01003/signature.png]undefined[/charsig]

  2. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by enginekid View Post
    You guys cannot use emotional responses of anecdotal evidence to explain mathematical random numbers.

    Running BFE 100 times is not a significant sample size to make a statistical argument about the health of the random number generator (RNG). That's not how randomness works. Lets say there is a 1/100 chance for a symbol to drop.

    You cannot then think something is wrong with the RNG if you run it 100 times and do not get a symbol. The randomness spreads across a distribution curve that looks something like a bell curve. Your outcome may fall anywhere on that curve. It is not always going to yield 1 symbol for every 100 runs.

    One player might do 300 runs and still not get one, but they might see 30 drop over that time. But there were 12 players in all those runs and each one randomly goes to one of the 12. The chances that it goes to you are still small.

    The fact that someone did 200 runs and won 4 symbols also does not suggest anything is strange with the RNG. The sample size is way too small. In order to make the claim that something is wrong one must run the instance 10000 times and look at the drops to see if they fall within expected distribution parameters of the Gaussian curve. Then if that one player is getting a distribution that does not fit the curve you will see it.

    Right now you are simply using anecdotes and emotions which create flaws in logic.
    I mostly agree with this but 100 runs is definitely enough to detect brokenness in some cases. Here's an extreme case. If the chance is supposed to be 1/100 and I get one 100 times in a row I'd feel pretty confident in saying it was borked.

    I think what people are seeing is just how sucky low drop rates combined with the current raid loot policy really are. I'd love to see some probabilities for how many runs it'd take a static 12 to reasonably expect that each person in the run win a symbol and how many symbols the lucky ones of that 12 would have when the 12th person finally got their first symbol. Might even be a cool mobile application to have just to play around with it when bored in line at the DMV. Setting drop chances and then iterating thru with a rnd for each to see when everyone gets one. It would certainly level set expectations.
    [charsig=http://lotrosigs.level3.turbine.com/012030000000399c7/signature.png]Artie[/charsig]

  3. #53
    Same remark :

    I farmed School about 20 times a day : absolutely nothing.
    A friend captain does 4-5 runs : he got twice the "Breastplate of the Honourable Captain" !!!

    Then I do a dozen of Webs with 2 friends, a warden and a mini : warden and myself got nothing and the mini got all the loots, remembrance crystals, SL crystals, teal items, tomes, relic removal scrolls, ... etc !!!
    (and 2 crystals + 1 teal item in an only run, just incredible)

    I really cannot explain this.
    Last edited by Castorix; Mar 21 2013 at 10:46 AM.

  4. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Castorix View Post
    Same remark :

    I farmed School about 20 times a day : absolutely nothing.
    A friend captain does 4-5 runs : he got twice the "Breastplate of the Honourable Captain" !!!

    Then I do a dozen of Webs with 2 friends, a warden and a mini : warden and myself got nothing and the mini got all the loots, remembrance crystals, SL crystals, teal items, tomes, relic removal scrolls, ... etc !!!
    (and 2 crystals + 1 teal item in an only run, just incredible)

    I really cannot explain this.
    I am all for a second look at the remote looting system to check if some bug went unnoticed during its implementation. Yet I can explain both of your remarks. For the first one it is indeed pretty surprising that your friend won twice the same object with the very low drop rates which are expected. However, there are many players, you certainly have many friends, so even if the changes of it happening to you were 1 out of 10,000 (that's one percent squared), chances that it happens to someone you know are much higher.

    For the second one it is even simpler. Say there were 6 loots, odds that they all went to the same guy are one third to the power 5 (first loot determines who will get everything, so it's not to the power 6). Odds of this happening are one in 243. That's small, small enough to be very noticeable, but not totally impossible. Now, if your friend won ten of those loots that would be one chance out of 19,683. It's getting serious, but not even nearly "lottery winner".

    Another bias is that you include a list of loot which was not defined before running the instances, but rather after those instances were completed. If in your experiment someone else did win a relic removal scroll, I bet you would still have made the same claim here, as the mini's earnings would have already been quite exceptionnals.

    So, is the remote looting bugged? probably since there are too many coincidences. Is your experience out of the norm? slightly. Is your experience enough to prove a bug? definitely not.

  5. #55
    I Dunno if there is a bug or not but since everyone is saying these rare events probabilities wise:

    - In a night, one champ played U10 for the first time and did 2x erebor with me, he got symbol and champ cloak, then left.
    - Some of kinnies got 0 symbols before this 'hotfix' (i got 2, explained below) while others got 5 in the same amount of runs: its like you say, if the drop rate is 1%, well, its much probable to get 1-2 on everyone than all in the same players.

    - For the inital 3-4 days i spent over 8 hours in BfE. 2 nights before the update, in 1 hour, i got golden piece, 2 symbols and 2 remembrances. This definitely looks like a flag system of sorts, maybe not intended but generated by the engine.
    Elunwe Minstrel | Elunduil Hunter | Ellirin Champion | Micolo Burz |

  6. #56
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    Most of the time, doing a buch of Erebors in a row, you'd see roughly a symbol every 4-5 runs.

    However, the other night we did 14 runs and pulled 8 symbols and 4 class items. All twelve of these went to the same four players. Any mathemagicians out there want to crank out the odds of that happening?
    [charsig=http://lotrosigs.level3.turbine.com/0620500000019dccb/01001/signature.png]undefined[/charsig]

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  7. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by maxjenius View Post
    For efficiency, complaints about drop rates and the RNG should be combined with threads with requests for a Beorning class and eagle mounts.
    ^ Made me laugh so hard I spilled my coffee.

  8. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by maxjenius View Post
    For efficiency, complaints about drop rates and the RNG should be combined with threads with requests for a Beorning class and eagle mounts.
    Add in the threads that degrade into "raiders are elitist pigs" vs "soloers are entitled brats" and the circle will be complete.

  9. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by DelgonTheWise View Post
    Cool, have you done so? I'm confused by the nature of what is being claimed exactly. Given a long series of /roll results from the game, do you feel confident that you can tell *anything* about the characteristics of the subsequent rolls? And if you can't, well, what exactly is being claimed?

    It is easy to dump on evil/bad/buggy PRNGs as the source of one's woes getting loot. And I don't deny that Turbine's PRNG *may* suck in a manner that actually affects game play, it is certainly *possible*. But I see no evidence for it in this thread or in any that I've ever seen discussing peoples misfortunes.
    Yes it is well written but at the same time it is using just simple statistical conversion to draw their desired conclusion. The graph I mentioned is what actually proves the opposite. Look at the range of 100-300 samples, its relatively flat and has a 50% error bar, that is far from acceptable without even looking closer. A scattter graph of all the results would make it quite obvious and show clustering.

    I'll put it in terms a SW person would get. Look at the first or second derivative of the results, or even the probablity density function. There are many standard test that this data set would fail on. Think of it this way, a PRNG is just a number generator, in Lotro it will likely be a 32-bit unsigned integer. To simplify the explination lets just say its 8-bits, so that a PRNG will generate a predictable sequence of numbers that "appear" random. If one were to sample this PRNG 256 time you would get the numbers 0-255 before the sequence repeats itself. If the PRNG does not produce all those values but repeats only a subset then it can not be classified as a maximal length sequence. Further, we are not looking at the full 8-bits when we decide a pass or fail test, lets say we want a random number for a raid base decision so we take our PRNG and divide it modulo 12 to get a result in the range of 0-11. That is how you break a PRNG via implementation, how you subsample the original truly good PRNG. It is not uncommon to just look at the LSB of a PRNG of significantly wider width, the wider the better as the sequence length doubles with each bit. PRNG are noise functions, but there are many types of noise, white, gray, pink, black etc... they each have certain characteristics that are desireable for different reasons. The point is that it doesn't matter if the actual PRNG that Lotro uses is good if how they use it breaks its randomness. Looking at the graph of results clearly shows there is an issue with it.

    As a sample size gets larger simple statistics will mask everything. In our above example if you sample this PRNG 256 times and you get all the values as a natural counting sequence you will not have random data but you will have an even distribution of all the expected values. The graph from the web page has serious issues that only dissappear if and only if you have a very large sample set AND you evaluate solely on outcome and not randomness. Yes it's true that 10 samples is not enough but 100, 200, 300 are throwing up a glaring flag for the data set from that analysis.

  10. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by Vehdren View Post
    Completed one T2 CM Smaug run since the patch. No First Age....not encouraging and yet strangely familiar.
    They should set it like OD/Orthanc used to be. T2 was 50% chance and T2c was 100% chance to drop a FA. While you're at it, go back to master looter too and don't scale new raid content.

  11. #61
    The very first U10 raid I did, Flight to the Lonely Mountain, my LM received a Tarnished Symbol, a Wyrmfire token, and a Starlite Crystal. The next ~140 raids I went on using my LM, Guard, Hunter and Burglar resulted in not one Tarnished Symbol. My burglar did get the gold shoulders and my guard the gold shield. I don't remember how many of the wyrmfire, etc tokens I got because I didn't keep track and gave several to friends who don't raid often to upgrade rings. I also had four jewelled scroll cases drop.

    I tutored statistics for three years in college. Casual observation of random number generated loot does not make sense. For instance, I failed to crit any of those four jewellry recipes. On the other hand I have critted eight of the ten Eastemnet Jewellers Journal recipes I have crafted. A casual observation would say that this is exactly backwards as I had a much higher crit chance on the single shot jewellry recipes than I did on the single shot scholar ones.

    I've also played this game since 2007. In nearly six years of crafting and getting drops, I'd say that the random number generator is pretty accurate. Don't get me wrong, when ever I miss a crit, I don't like it. When I see someone get multiple drops while I am not getting any, I don't like it.

    What I do like is some of the players in the game. On one of my many runs through BfE, a captain won back to back tarnished symbols. His response was, "Wow, didn't expect that. Okay, anybody that hasn't won one go ahead and roll for this one." He gave his second symbol to another person in the pug.

    Random number generators can be frustrating. Random player integrity more than makes up for it.
    Elendilmir - Officer of the Mithril Crowns (The Oldest Kinship in LOTRO)

    "It doesn't matter how well you play, only how good you look while playing."

  12. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by Amlost View Post
    They should set it like OD/Orthanc used to be. T2 was 50% chance and T2c was 100% chance to drop a FA.
    I agree. I also see no reason why the drops should be limited to the Erebor raids and can not be included in BG and OD.
    [CENTER][COLOR=#ff0000][B]Thorcar[/B][/COLOR]
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  13. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by NobodySpcl View Post
    The point is that it doesn't matter if the actual PRNG that Lotro uses is good if how they use it breaks its randomness. Looking at the graph of results clearly shows there is an issue with it.
    Hmm. Not sure I buy it. Are you saying that based on any particular series of results in LOTRO you can make a prediction of any sort about future results? I agree the graph that converges slowly looks bad. The first graph (which is independent data from the second) appears to be a bit different results-wise. I'm personally unwilling to blame the RNG for much of what folks attribute to it -- such claims should have a moderately high standard of proof...

  14. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by DelgonTheWise View Post
    I'm personally unwilling to blame the RNG for much of what folks attribute to it -- such claims should have a moderately high standard of proof...
    problem is the rigor (you) require(d) for turbine to check it out is almost impossible to achieve for most if not all players, which would mean that nothing will happen....

  15. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by rannion View Post
    problem is the rigor (you) require(d) for turbine to check it out is almost impossible to achieve for most if not all players, which would mean that nothing will happen....
    Guess: if Turbine checked it out and said there was no problem, the vast majority wouldn't believe them anyway. Folks are convinced that "the RNG hates them", and nothing will sway that. Nothing.

  16. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by DelgonTheWise View Post
    Guess: if Turbine checked it out and said there was no problem, the vast majority wouldn't believe them anyway. Folks are convinced that "the RNG hates them", and nothing will sway that. Nothing.
    *shrug* bit hard to falsify this hypothetical, not going to bother. get the feeling you're biased towards the opposed conclusion already anyway.

    Regardless, like I already stated on the previous page, (especially) if the pRNG is indeed sufficiently random, all I know is that I am already thoroughly demotivated to keep running content at all except just to do some stuff socially, because I've simply given up on fighting the pRNG. I don't care any longer. Question for turbine is how many other people are starting to feel this way, and what that will do to their bottom line..

  17. #67
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    So it sounds like there could be two possible problems here, if I'm understanding the above comments correctly. Please correct me if I'm not.

    One, the loot tables are associated in some way to a character identifier, in a way that the RNG's outputs are being distorted so that some people receive more favorable drops. Obviously this would be a bad thing.

    Or two, the RNG's outputs tend to cluster in such a way that some people get streaks of great drops while others get streaks of nothing, even if in theory it would average out if those people ran the instance 1000 times. You could argue that this isn't problematic, but I'd argue it is. If you were just crafting food, for example, this kind of clustering is OK because it's relatively easy to accumulate enough outcomes to balance the successes with the failures. But when you're dealing with limited inputs (whether a rare jewelry recipe or the time it takes to complete one instance), this kind of clustering is a guaranteed bet for player frustration. The last thing Turbine should want is players ragelogging because they've run Ost Elendil thirty times with no success and then see another player get their gold class item twice in a row. And it obviously doesn't make for a productive environment on the forums either.

    On a side note, I'm wondering whether using crafting as a reliable indicator is necessarily valid. It may test the underlying RNG but it doesn't test the implementation in terms of loot. I'm also not sure it's reasonable compare current loot behavior with past raid loot history either. Previously raid drops weren't done for each character individually, as is now the case for remote looting.

  18. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by rannion View Post
    *shrug* bit hard to falsify this hypothetical, not going to bother. get the feeling you're biased towards the opposed conclusion already anyway.

    Regardless, like I already stated on the previous page, (especially) if the pRNG is indeed sufficiently random, all I know is that I am already thoroughly demotivated to keep running content at all except just to do some stuff socially, because I've simply given up on fighting the pRNG. I don't care any longer. Question for turbine is how many other people are starting to feel this way, and what that will do to their bottom line..
    X is broken seems to me to require proof, that is all.

    As to the nature of the game these days, I actually agree with you. I have a personal preference towards working towards things (via currencies) and having known grinds rather than unknown ones. That is regardless of the quality of the RNG -- a perfect one would still leave you (and me) unsatisfied once when we've ground 2 or 3 times the expected number of instances without getting a result, which is a pretty common outcome...

  19. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andorric View Post
    So it sounds like there could be two possible problems here, if I'm understanding the above comments correctly. Please correct me if I'm not.

    One, the loot tables are associated in some way to a character identifier, in a way that the RNG's outputs are being distorted so that some people receive more favorable drops. Obviously this would be a bad thing.
    There is most likely an opposite side to this as well - so that some people receive an even LESS chance at getting something.

    Or two, the RNG's outputs tend to cluster in such a way that some people get streaks of great drops while others get streaks of nothing, even if in theory it would average out if those people ran the instance 1000 times.
    Except, in the cases that I've seen, there aren't really streaks. It's consistent over a number of days.
    Chromite (Hunter) - Grumbletocks (Guardian) on Landroval, Appendage (Hunter) on Brandywine

  20. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aelin-uial View Post
    Random number generators can be frustrating. Random player integrity more than makes up for it.
    Unfortunately, because the gold class items are BoA, this remedy is never an option for those. But that's a separate issue.

  21. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by DelgonTheWise View Post
    As to the nature of the game these days, I actually agree with you. I have a personal preference towards working towards things (via currencies) and having known grinds rather than unknown ones. That is regardless of the quality of the RNG -- a perfect one would still leave you (and me) unsatisfied once when we've ground 2 or 3 times the expected number of instances without getting a result, which is a pretty common outcome...
    I wonder whether it would be possible to code the class item drops, or any very rare loot for that matter, in such a way that your odds of getting one increase (within reason and to a specified limit) with the number of boss kills you've done for that instance set. I mean, we already have a tooltip that tracks them anyway - you'd just have to make sure the loot tracker only tracked boss kills from the most recent update onward. It wouldn't be as consistent as accumulating currency for a trade-in but at least there would be some hope and feeling of progression if you haven't gotten lucky in the first 40 runs haha.

  22. #72
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    As people hinted at above, regardless of whether or not the RNG is being distorted by some silly factor like character ID number or something, the fact that so many people have become suspicious of it is clearly an indication that things aren't working ideally. Whether that means that the RNG itself needs investigation or whether it means that using a simple RNG at all for this kind of loot acquistion is not a very good idea is another concern.
    [charsig=http://lotrosigs.level3.turbine.com/0620500000019dccb/01001/signature.png]undefined[/charsig]

    Ulver - 85 Runekeeper | Grevling - 85 Burglar

  23. #73
    How Turbine messed up on a specific random number implementation in Asheron's Call.

    http://asheron.wikia.com/wiki/Wi_Flag

  24. #74
    Quote Originally Posted by Castorix View Post
    //...
    Then I do a dozen of Webs with 2 friends, a warden and a mini : warden and myself got nothing and the mini got all the loots, remembrance crystals, SL crystals, teal items, tomes, relic removal scrolls, ... etc !!!
    (and 2 crystals + 1 teal item in an only run, just incredible)
    I really cannot explain this.
    And this mini tried Glinghant with a pug, they failed challenge, and she got... the gold Minstrel's Robe !
    Great for her, but there is something wrong...

  25. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by Castorix View Post
    And this mini tried Glinghant with a pug, they failed challenge, and she got... the gold Minstrel's Robe !
    Great for her, but there is something wrong...
    I wasn't aware that the chance for gold gear to drop was affected by completing challenge mode. Completing challenge mode just gives you a currency reward as well as a second chest which AFIK does not contain gear.

 

 
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