We have detected that cookies are not enabled on your browser. Please enable cookies to ensure the proper experience.
Page 2 of 4 FirstFirst 1 2 3 4 LastLast
Results 26 to 50 of 82
  1. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Yadhel View Post
    I don't know how the random number generator is working, but to me it seems that it is not working right.
    It is not a random number generator, it is a pseudo-random number generator. There are many standard ones out there as well as a lot of scientific work on verifying how random they truly are. The LOTRO one is definitely a very poor one in that it fails on even minimal standard testing. Additionally, even a good one can be misused so that if functions poorly, that may also be the case here. I have written them many times about this and how to fix it but as always it falls on deaf or ignorant ears. They have the ability and resources to fix it but they CHOOSE not to.
    Last edited by NobodySpcl; Mar 20 2013 at 09:07 PM.

  2. #27
    It's sad, but I think this update is the end of Lotro. The fig leaf has been taken away; the discrimination I've suspected for the past five years is now open and blatant. "Elite" players are allowed to obtain 1st age weapons in Tier 1, while other players are required to complete Tier 2 for the exact same reward. These symbols were dropped for 16 days in easy mode for the specific purpose of favoring elite players and giving them the gear to advance to Tier 2, while locking other players out of not only 1st age symbols, but playing the Tier 2 content. If there is another explanation, they need to provide it. If they were going to take 1st age symbols out of T1, they needed to have removed all the 1st age weapons from the players that got them from T1 symbols, or better yet, they should not have dropped these in the first place. There is no reason for players to play a game where the rules are stacked against them to favor certain players.

  3. #28
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Posts
    31
    Quote Originally Posted by NobodySpcl View Post
    It is not a random number generator, it is a pseudo-random number generator. There are many standard ones out there as well as a lot of scientific work on verifying how random they truly are. The LOTRO one is definitely a very poor one in that it fails on even minimal standard testing. Additionally, even a good one can be misused so that if functions poorly, that may also be the case here. I have written them many times about this and how to fix it but as always it falls on deaf or ignorant ears. They have the ability and resources to fix it but they CHOOSE not to.
    This is disheartening, if true. I'm wondering if perhaps we're starting to notice it more now because it's only been in the past couple updates that true "rare" gear has been quickly farmable (pre-hotfixes I mean). In other words, previously you'd have to spend a long time to get to boss loot with any chance of a gold drop, compared to now where people have been running 15-min instances one after another, so now we're getting a larger sample size where it becomes more apparent. :/

  4. #29
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Posts
    235
    MithrielWielder:
    Smaug T2 can be beaten in a pug, for this I know because people in my kin have a bunch.
    I'm reasonably sure that BfE can be completed in a pug too, especially once more people understand the fight more.


    I feel like a lot of people are using this as an excuse to never even try T2 because it's "too hard for casual people".
    These instances aren't that hard.

  5. #30
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    3,203
    Quote Originally Posted by NobodySpcl View Post
    The LOTRO one is definitely a very poor one in that it fails on even minimal standard testing.
    Details? Based on anecdotes or studies where percentages are actually known? Not denying it might be broken, but good studies like this: http://lorebook.lotro.com/wiki/Craft..._Rate_Analysis seem to suggest it conforms reasonably well to what is expected...

  6. #31
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Posts
    476
    It's all about perception.
    Nobody here can tell with certainty that the RNG is bugged or biased.

    But what matters is that the perception of it as such, regardless of whether it is founded or not, should not be underestimated.

    I also have kinmates who dropped golden items twice, while I used to get nothing.

    A such system can only lead to frustration. I almost quitted the game for game because of it - It's not that I felt some entitlement or primarily was driven by loot at that time. It has more to do with the fact that when you compare with others, we have done the same amount of content, and notice the discrepancies, you can only be disheartened.

    That RNG does not take in account good luck nor bad luck streaks, so it will always create huge discrepancies and will frustrate some.

  7. #32
    The very very very sad thing is I could copy your entire post and it would apply to me %100. There is a serious issue with the rng and it is an insane issue. I did close to 400 Erabor runs and ZERO FA drops. I have kin mates that did half of that and received 3-7 symbols. Now they want me to spend 488 seals on an fa? Luckily my kinmates love to share and boy do i miss the old loot option that allowed DKP to be used(Now it is a task to use dkp). I find it funny now how the same thing happened with second ages in BG. Turbine got there money when people rushed to the stores for the upgrades. Then after a few weeks, when most people spent money bought points for upgrades, did they change it to t2 only. No coincidence they did the same with First ages. I love this game but i do not love the direction it has gone. Look at old content vs new content. IMO these new raids were sloppily put together. I guess I could go on about the things I'm bummed out about but most of it has been said. I hope the future is brighter. Sorry for going off topic a bit.

    PS Turbines classic RNG system caused havoc in asherons call. The same issue was happening although the RNG related to mob aggro but the same issue was occurring. Below is the link

    http://ac.wikkii.net/wiki/Wi_Flag

  8. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by NobodySpcl View Post
    It is not a random number generator, it is a pseudo-random number generator. There are many standard ones out there as well as a lot of scientific work on verifying how random they truly are. The LOTRO one is definitely a very poor one in that it fails on even minimal standard testing. Additionally, even a good one can be misused so that if functions poorly, that may also be the case here. I have written them many times about this and how to fix it but as always it falls on deaf or ignorant ears. They have the ability and resources to fix it but they CHOOSE not to.
    Very interesting. Thank you for posting that. Nice to have feedback from someone who is knowledgeable. Lets hope they hear you out.

  9. #34
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    1,587
    Quote Originally Posted by Yadhel View Post
    Drop Rates of FAs. Yeah Another Thread About FA drops.
    We needed another?

    Really?

  10. #35
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    1,587
    Quote Originally Posted by Trreacherous View Post
    Very interesting. Thank you for posting that. Nice to have feedback from someone who is knowledgeable. Lets hope they hear you out.
    He didn't say anything that's not been said umpteen times before .. some people like to point out it's a PRNG every time this kind of discussion takes place, just 'search' on PRNG to see what I mean.

    As for what he said, he asserts it's a "poor one" and "badly tested" yet provides no evidence for either assertion, contrary to a few well-written posts several years ago where statistical analyses showed that there was no discernable fault with it given a statistically significant sample size. But it doesn't stop people endlessly posting how the '[P]RNG' is broken.

    The fact that Turbine haven't taken up his ideas should tell you something, and not necessarily about Turbine.
    Last edited by Kerin_Eldar; Mar 21 2013 at 03:40 AM.

  11. #36
    +1 rep, this game is a nightmare to the casual player anymore. And if you are one of the players that has multiple alts its even worst.

    Quote Originally Posted by Yadhel View Post
    I have been a player, and a vip/founder since 2007, a lot of changes have happened since that time, but anyways, I am one of those people who has run BFE about 165 times and never got an FA symbol. What I have seen, and many other people have noticed it too is that for some unknown reason the same people kept getting FAs and other goodies time, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again...

    Some people who have run this instance the same amount of times as I have, or even less have gotten from 6-10+ symbols. If this had been happening only once in a while I can see that happening and would attribute it to luck, but when it keeps happening time, and again, and again, and again and you keep seeing the same people getting the symbols it is obvious that something is very wrong. This is no luck, either the loot drop table was/is broken and not working properly, or something else is/was going on.

    Now, again, you have nerfed the drops to only T2 dropping FAs, and yeah you are going to say to farm some more to exchange at skirmish camps using seals for FA, but when you have to do about 200 runs to get 400 seals, and you can only get one FA this way and have 3+ level 85 toons, plus having to get the new armor also with seals, we are talking about way too much grinding.

    I know some staff member or member/s, and even those who have gotten symbols will try to drop the usual lines, "we assure you, it is just luck", but luck doesn't work that way. Out of 12 people in a raid the same ones getting the FAs time and again is more than just luck, and no assurance from your part will change my mind about this fact.

    Although I am not sure why this is happening exactly it is obvious that something is not working right.

    BTW, this same thing happened at first with the SA drops when they came out first, only a few got many of these symbols.

    Those few people who somehow get very lucky are the same ones who sell symbols at ridiculous prices, messing up the economy and making just a few people the richest in the game.

    The continuous grinding is getting to a point that it is ridiculous, but, if it was true that everyone would have the same amount of a chance to get symbols and everyone was getting at least an equal average drop rate of symbols and other goodies the grinding would be less tedious.

    IMO, if the drop rates of FAs were really up to luck we would see more people who do as much grinding as those who got 6-10+ symbols would be getting an average amount of FAs and other goodies such as the rare jeweler scrolls, gold class items, etc, but this is not happening. Most of us might get maybe 1 or 2 such items after weeks or even months of grinding.

    I don't know how the random number generator is working, but to me it seems that it is not working right.

  12. #37
    Does anyone remember the old SOA days, before moria? When tier 5 1 shot crit was some of the best gear and the only better was obtained thru doing "The Rift". Now that was a fun raid. Truly something turbine has not been able to repeat. 1 week locks and still groups were being formed for over a year and being run constantly. Instead of a bunch of these lame instances that basically amount to a turtle fight.

  13. #38
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Amsterdam
    Posts
    939
    I wish they would change the system back to where 1 or if lucky 2 armour coins would drop for all 12 players. Then let the group decide how the loot is distributed.

    I loved the way Rift, Helegrod and the Moria instances were before it was made into a mindless grind to get an x amount of barter stuff for 1 piece.

    People would join for the instance and were excited and hoping they would win this time. (you know, emotions)

    With the change to marks/medals/seals for armour people are just mindlessly playing instances thinking 34 more runs, ok now i need 33 more runs, now i need 32 more. No excitement anymore.

    And i've done quite some number of instances myself, never won anything in all the instances. Then 1 lucky evening i won 2 symbols + the cloak from BoE T1.

  14. #39
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Hertfordshire, UK
    Posts
    2,095
    Quote Originally Posted by NobodySpcl View Post
    It is not a random number generator, it is a pseudo-random number generator. There are many standard ones out there as well as a lot of scientific work on verifying how random they truly are. The LOTRO one is definitely a very poor one in that it fails on even minimal standard testing. Additionally, even a good one can be misused so that if functions poorly, that may also be the case here. I have written them many times about this and how to fix it but as always it falls on deaf or ignorant ears. They have the ability and resources to fix it but they CHOOSE not to.
    This is an issue that comes up on a regular basis in any mmo that uses a prng, they always say "the rng doesn't work blah blah", some give so called evidence that to be honest is only evidence of their own inability to gather evidence, some just complain, but so far i've never seen any real evidence of a prng not working in any of the games i played and have on multiple times seen devs on games give evidence that it does work.

    Yet still they complain that it's broken.

    Unless someone can give me some actual proof then because of past experience i'm just going to turn round and say, it's all about luck

  15. #40
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Hertfordshire, UK
    Posts
    2,095
    Quote Originally Posted by Torinik View Post
    +1 rep, this game is a nightmare to the casual player anymore. And if you are one of the players that has multiple alts its even worst.
    This is something that baffles me, we have all on the front page of the forum people both complaining that the game is too easy and complaining that the game is too hard.

    Gah! my heads about to asplode!

  16. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by Kerin_Eldar View Post
    He didn't say anything that's not been said umpteen times before .. some people like to point out it's a PRNG every time this kind of discussion takes place, just 'search' on PRNG to see what I mean.

    As for what he said, he asserts it's a "poor one" and "badly tested" yet provides no evidence for either assertion, contrary to a few well-written posts several years ago where statistical analyses showed that there was no discernable fault with it given a statistically significant sample size. But it doesn't stop people endlessly posting how the '[P]RNG' is broken.

    The fact that Turbine haven't taken up his ideas should tell you something, and not necessarily about Turbine.
    The proof is in the pudding my friend. From what I have experienced in game its seems like a poor PRNG to me. Thank you for your thoughtful reply.

  17. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by DelgonTheWise View Post
    Details? Based on anecdotes or studies where percentages are actually known? Not denying it might be broken, but good studies like this: http://lorebook.lotro.com/wiki/Craft..._Rate_Analysis seem to suggest it conforms reasonably well to what is expected...
    Thanks for that post, it uses statistics to "prove" a point incorrectly, the old saying about stats lying applies here. They do large samples and say that since it converges its a good random number generator. However, the totals are not what defines a good random number generator, in fact if you look at the one graph for Critical Success Rate you can see how they are masking the real data in the other graphs. This graph shows severe under achievement for samples less then 500 which then have oscillating overshoot before dampening down. A good number generator should asymptotically approach the expected without that huge undershoot and overshoot shown. To really do an analysis you would also look at distributions of subsamples and run lengths. At 100 samples you should be fairly close to the expect outcome, at 200 even more so. The results should converge to the expected both faster and smoother than what is shown. This is a well studied field and for things like electronic gambling machines is highly regulated and verified for conformance. And again, even a good PRNG can easily be miss applied (and they often are) such that their quality is severely impaired. Looting is not the best way to judge because we do not know how they apply the PRNG over a whole group and perhaps that IS one place where the implementation is compromised. Crafting or /roll would be better for analysis of the raw PRNG as it is less likely their utilization interferes with the quality of the PRNG. Of course, the best way would be to look at the code for the PRNG and all places that utilize it. It would not in the least surprise me if they just used a standard language library generator which are not of particularly good quality but they are very fast and use almost no code space. For slightly larger code space and just a little more computation they could use a good one and for the penalty of a few dozen bytes or so it would essentially be free when compared to their memory footprint.

  18. #43
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    #!/usr/bin/perl
    Posts
    53
    Quote Originally Posted by Yadhel View Post
    I don't know how the random number generator is working, but to me it seems that it is not working right.
    Well, I could quote John von Neumann here with his famous adage about PRNGs. But that's old, so I won't, so go google it. I want to share a rare pearl instead, which I fortunately have kept as a note ever since I read it on the old, and now gone, Codemasters community forums for LotRO. This note is from August 9th, 2009 and shows the forum signature of member "Halo Jones" (so the text might have been around much longer):

    Quote Originally Posted by Halo Jones
    "The pRNG has a name, its name is 'Clumpy'.
    It has been called this for over a year, and it would appreciate being called by its name.
    It doesn't fustrate (sic!) people on purpose, it just fustrates (sic!) some people on purpose.
    Vote NO! to Clumpy in Riders of Rohan."
    Obviously, no one voted against it.

    As a proof to this, yesterday two kinnies (a couple) confided to me in Vent that they went about 4 times to BfE together and got a total of 7 symbols out of it. They felt so bad they gave some of them away as gifts. Thank you guys, you're awesome!

  19. #44
    I knew I should've hung onto that horseshoe - I'm sure I'd be rolling in 1A symbols and gold items by now.

  20. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by Luder85 View Post
    I knew I should've hung onto that horseshoe - I'm sure I'd be rolling in 1A symbols and gold items by now.
    lol, all my toons have the so called lucky horse-shoe, and so far no luck, in fact I have been more lucky without it than with it. I've tried being at different distances from the lootbox, moving around as it is being looted, not moving at all, etc, etc. None of it helps with whatever problem the RNG has.

    In fact, even I believe that the lucky horse-shoe was just a joke made up by the developers, yes I tried using it as Sapience explained during the festival events, and of course no luck.

    I have kept the lucky horse-shoe more as a memento than anything else, although I do slip it on from time to time to no avail.
    Last edited by Yadhel; Mar 21 2013 at 06:41 AM.

  21. #46
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    533
    Quote Originally Posted by Andorric View Post
    This is disheartening, if true. I'm wondering if perhaps we're starting to notice it more now because it's only been in the past couple updates that true "rare" gear has been quickly farmable (pre-hotfixes I mean). In other words, previously you'd have to spend a long time to get to boss loot with any chance of a gold drop, compared to now where people have been running 15-min instances one after another, so now we're getting a larger sample size where it becomes more apparent. :/
    It's more likely that we're starting to notice it because before we were mostly only /rolling in PUG instances, and chests always had something in them. Now we don't even now if it is better to do a raid with a lower number of players or if bringing craft alts along improves the chances of looting something for the whole group. Take Draigoch for example, where you can be 24 in T1 but only 12 in T2. Do you have more Draigoch scales in total as 12 in T2 or as 24 in T1 ?

    There may also be very strange bugs depending on how the remote looting is coded. Imagine for example that players in the raid are sorted alphabetically, the RNG is initialized with time-based seed, and this sort of creation of the seed gives bad results for every 12th roll. If your toon is named Zorro, you are always losing the remote looting rolls.

    Quote Originally Posted by Edrogar View Post
    This is something that baffles me, we have all on the front page of the forum people both complaining that the game is too easy and complaining that the game is too hard.

    Gah! my heads about to asplode!
    You are trying to derail the thread, and do so by intentionaly misunderstanding the message you quote. The game is neither easy nor too hard, but too random with a flawed RNG rolling the dices. Hence the nightmare.

  22. #47
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    3,203
    Quote Originally Posted by NobodySpcl View Post
    Thanks for that post, it uses statistics to "prove" a point incorrectly, the old saying about stats lying applies here.
    It is easy to be a critic, and you appear to know more about RNGs than me (I'm a software engineer, but never have used other than very casually RNGs). But that post is very well written and represents a fair bit of useful work. It carefully shows its data. It has as a starting hypothesis "Across a time-cumulative, large sample (numbering in the thousands at minimum), the actual accumulated crit-vs-normal crafting results will align with the crafter’s advertised crit rate.", and the data in the end supports that hypothesis. It was made, I believe, to address those who felt that the RNG was over the long haul not converging on expected value, or was unexpectedly streaky. It seems to be a useful contribution (no, not mine in any way), and rather than the anecdoctal nature of most PRNG discussions actually has data and is controlled.

    Quote Originally Posted by NobodySpcl View Post
    Crafting or /roll would be better for analysis of the raw PRNG as it is less likely their utilization interferes with the quality of the PRNG.
    Cool, have you done so? I'm confused by the nature of what is being claimed exactly. Given a long series of /roll results from the game, do you feel confident that you can tell *anything* about the characteristics of the subsequent rolls? And if you can't, well, what exactly is being claimed?

    It is easy to dump on evil/bad/buggy PRNGs as the source of one's woes getting loot. And I don't deny that Turbine's PRNG *may* suck in a manner that actually affects game play, it is certainly *possible*. But I see no evidence for it in this thread or in any that I've ever seen discussing peoples misfortunes.
    Last edited by DelgonTheWise; Mar 21 2013 at 08:14 AM.

  23. #48
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Local cluster
    Posts
    521
    Quote Originally Posted by Kerin_Eldar View Post
    As for what he said, he asserts it's a "poor one" and "badly tested" yet provides no evidence for either assertion, contrary to a few well-written posts several years ago where statistical analyses showed that there was no discernable fault with it given a statistically significant sample size. But it doesn't stop people endlessly posting how the '[P]RNG' is broken.
    Were those previous tests executed on a number of different alts owned by different players? If not, there is still a quite large chance that the person simply belonged to the category of people who get a drop regularly..
    As for me, I only know that I did well over 100 runs of durchest t1 when the drop rate was 'crazy', and that all I got for it was 1 remembrance crystal, 0 slcs, and 0 SA symbols. More recently, I got 1 slc, 0 CoR, 1 stat tome, and 0 FA symbols out of ~100 BfE runs.
    And all I feel I am doing is indeed tallying 'runs', while largely ignoring the content, which is mostly just mind-numbingly easy anyway. As a result, I've noticed that I no longer really care even when I *do* win some teal or other, as the pRNG is just too random for me to think of it as a victory.
    Is this really what turbine wants to instill in me? A feeling of dejected despair, whenever I run group content?
    Last edited by rannion; Mar 21 2013 at 08:43 AM.

  24. #49
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Posts
    5,458
    Quote Originally Posted by Kerin_Eldar View Post
    We needed another? Really?
    For efficiency, complaints about drop rates and the RNG should be combined with threads with requests for a Beorning class and eagle mounts.

  25. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by rannion View Post
    Were those previous tests executed on a number of different alts owned by different players? If not, there is still a quite large chance that the person simply belonged to the category of people who get a drop regularly..
    As for me, I only know that I did well over 100 runs of durchest t1 when the drop rate was 'crazy', and that all I got for it was 1 remembrance crystal, 0 slcs, and 0 SA symbols. More recently, I got 1 slc, 0 CoR, 1 stat tome, and 0 FA symbols out of ~100 BfE runs.
    And all I feel I am doing is indeed tallying 'runs', while largely ignoring the content, which is mostly just mind-numbingly easy anyway. As a result, I've noticed that I no longer really care even when I *do* win some teal or other, as the pRNG is just too random for me to think of it as a victory.
    Is this really what turbine wants to instill in me? A feeling of dejected despair, whenever I run group content?
    Indeed. I feel unlucky when I compare my toons to some kinmates and friends who have multiple gold items and good teal instance jewelry and I have none. It makes me believe that I'm never going to get anything good, and rather than being hopeful that the next instance run will get me something other than a bounty and a relic, I'm really discouraged and think I'm not going to get anything anyway. This leads to me wondering why I should bother.

    This is a case where perception is reality in regards to the pRNG.

 

 
Page 2 of 4 FirstFirst 1 2 3 4 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

This form's session has expired. You need to reload the page.

Reload