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  1. #1

    Drop Rates of FAs. Yeah Another Thread About FA drops.

    I have been a player, and a vip/founder since 2007, a lot of changes have happened since that time, but anyways, I am one of those people who has run BFE about 165 times and never got an FA symbol. What I have seen, and many other people have noticed it too is that for some unknown reason the same people kept getting FAs and other goodies time, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again...

    Some people who have run this instance the same amount of times as I have, or even less have gotten from 6-10+ symbols. If this had been happening only once in a while I can see that happening and would attribute it to luck, but when it keeps happening time, and again, and again, and again and you keep seeing the same people getting the symbols it is obvious that something is very wrong. This is no luck, either the loot drop table was/is broken and not working properly, or something else is/was going on.

    Now, again, you have nerfed the drops to only T2 dropping FAs, and yeah you are going to say to farm some more to exchange at skirmish camps using seals for FA, but when you have to do about 200 runs to get 400 seals, and you can only get one FA this way and have 3+ level 85 toons, plus having to get the new armor also with seals, we are talking about way too much grinding.

    I know some staff member or member/s, and even those who have gotten symbols will try to drop the usual lines, "we assure you, it is just luck", but luck doesn't work that way. Out of 12 people in a raid the same ones getting the FAs time and again is more than just luck, and no assurance from your part will change my mind about this fact.

    Although I am not sure why this is happening exactly it is obvious that something is not working right.

    BTW, this same thing happened at first with the SA drops when they came out first, only a few got many of these symbols.

    Those few people who somehow get very lucky are the same ones who sell symbols at ridiculous prices, messing up the economy and making just a few people the richest in the game.

    The continuous grinding is getting to a point that it is ridiculous, but, if it was true that everyone would have the same amount of a chance to get symbols and everyone was getting at least an equal average drop rate of symbols and other goodies the grinding would be less tedious.

    IMO, if the drop rates of FAs were really up to luck we would see more people who do as much grinding as those who got 6-10+ symbols would be getting an average amount of FAs and other goodies such as the rare jeweler scrolls, gold class items, etc, but this is not happening. Most of us might get maybe 1 or 2 such items after weeks or even months of grinding.

    I don't know how the random number generator is working, but to me it seems that it is not working right.
    Last edited by Yadhel; Mar 20 2013 at 04:21 PM.

  2. #2
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    +rep. Over the weekend I did six Battle runs in a row. We had four symbols drop and THREE went to the same player. Granted, that's a tiny sample size, but the odds are (read: should be) overwhelmingly against that happening, and I've heard a lot of chatter and seen multiple threads on the forums detailing similar experiences. Players with gold class items also seem to get them repeatedly.
    Last edited by Andorric; Mar 20 2013 at 04:22 PM.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Yadhel View Post
    Some people who have run this instance the same amount of times as I have, or even less have gotten from 6-10+ symbols. If this had been happening only once in a while I can see that happening and would attribute it to luck, but when it keeps happening time, and again, and again, and again and you keep seeing the same people getting the symbols it is obvious that something is very wrong. This is no luck, either the loot drop table was/is broken and not working properly or something else is/was going on.
    This is something that has to change, now before people start saying things about the whole BFE farm to get FA's i agree, they shouldn't have droped from T1 in the first place.
    But this kind of luck system applies to all loot, it's just more obvious with FA's because that's all player were going for.
    It's a luckbased system, it could take 1 run, or a few hunderds, remote looting feels like like rolling, but not being in-control of what happens.
    I strongly feel there should be an option to do the normal rolling again(and the loot given in the chest can't contain things differently then the classes in the run, for example, if your doing a fornost, and don't have an agility-based class no agility items should be able to drop)

    Quote Originally Posted by Yadhel View Post
    Now, again, you have nerfed the drops to only T2 dropping FAs, and yeah you are going to say to farm some more to exchange at skirmish camps using seals for FA, but when you have to do about 200 runs to get 400 seals, and you can only get one FA this way and have 3+ level 85 toons, plus having to get the new armor also with seals, we are talking about way too much grinding.
    Actually, if you run anniminas with the instance finder you get like 11seals if you do the challenge? 10 runs 110 seals? so your looking at 40ish runs for 440+ seals, sounds a bit better then 200 runs Imo

    Ex
    [charsig=http://lotrosigs.level3.turbine.com/0b20c000000241100/01006/signature.png]undefined[/charsig]

  4. #4
    Yep, I saw that happening several times, and always the FAs went to the same people. Even when those people did not get an FA, most often when no FA dropped, they always got something good, and very few were the times when they would get only relics meanwhile the rest of us got mostly and only relics, and or bounties.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yadhel View Post
    I have been a player, and a vip/founder since 2007, a lot of changes have happened since that time, but anyways, I am one of those people who has run BFE about 165 times and never got an FA symbol. What I have seen, and many other people have noticed it too is that for some unknown reason the same people kept getting FAs, and other goodies time, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again...

    Some people who have run this instance the same amount of times as I have, or even less have gotten from 6-10+ symbols. If this had been happening only once in a while I can see that happening and would attribute it to luck, but when it keeps happening time, and again, and again, and again and you keep seeing the same people getting the symbols it is obvious that something is very wrong. This is no luck, either the loot drop table was/is broken and not working properly or something else is/was going on.

    Now, again, you have nerfed the drops to only T2 dropping FAs, and yeah you are going to say to farm some more to exchange at skirmish camps using seals for FA, but when you have to do about 200 runs to get 400 seals, and you can only get one FA this way and have 3+ level 85 toons, plus having to get the new armor also with seals, we are talking about way too much grinding.

    I know some staff member or member/s, and even those who have goten symbols will try to drop the usual lines, "we assure you, it is just luck", but luck doesn't work that way. Out of 12 people in a raid the same ones getting the FAs time and again is more than just luck, and no assurance from your part will change my mind about this fact.

    Although I am not sure why this is happening exactly it is obvious that something is/was not working right.

    BTW, this same thing happened at first with the SA drops when they came out first, only a few got many of these symbols.

    Those few people who somehow get very lucky are the same ones who sell symbols at ridiculous prices, messing up the economy and making just a few people the richest in the game.

    The continuous grinding is getting to a point that it is ridiculous, but, if it was true that everyone would have the same amount of a chance to get symbols and everyone was getting at least an equal average drop rate of symbols and other goodies the grinding would be less tedious.

    IMO, if the drop rates of FAs were really up to luck we would see more people who do as much grinding as those who got 6-10+ symbols would be getting an average amount of FAs and other goodies such as the rare jeweler scrolls, gold class items, etc, but this is not happening. Most of us might get maybe 1 or 2 such items after weeks or even months of grinding.

    I don't know how the random number generator is working, but to me it seems that it is/was not working right.
    The loot table seems weird, I agree. I have seen people who have run it 100+ times and got nothing - then someone do 5 runs and walk away with 2 symbols and a gold. Luck does work that way sometimes though.

    I differ with you a little in that I think the seal grinding for First Age Symbols is a good system if it was actually working because I enjoy doing instances - but it's not - so that point is kind of moot.

    That being said though I really have no problem with tier1 raids having a slight chance to drop First Age symbols either. The amount of work it takes to set up a tier2 raiding group and keep it together over a long period of time is brutal, and feels way more like work than playing a game. I would never deal with that kind of stress for a video game. Just isn't worth it for shiny pixels.

  6. #6
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    I did a count of all the 3 mans, 6 mans and raids from December til last night that I had done at level 85 in my Skirmish Stats Panel.

    I came up with about 812 boss kills. No Gold Items for me.

    A kinmate has already gotten about 3 or 4 of the same champ gold cloak. Another kinmate has gotten like 9-10 symbols or so.

    Something has to be seriously messed up for some characters. It really needs to be looked at.
    Chromite (Hunter) - Grumbletocks (Guardian) on Landroval, Appendage (Hunter) on Brandywine

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by MTminas View Post
    This is something that has to change, now before people start saying things about the whole BFE farm to get FA's i agree, they shouldn't have droped from T1 in the first place
    ....
    Ex
    I agree 100% with you on that. If they intended for FAs to drop only on T2, it should have happened from the start, and not change it now that just some got 6-10+ symbols.

    But this is how Turbine keeps doing these expansions, and it seems that every time only a few players, and most often the same players get an obscene amount of FAs, or SAs, etc when these expansions were/are first introduced.

  8. #8
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    Just a thought for other people responding - we should probably keep this discussion limited to how the loot tables seem to play out for some characters versus others. There are already other threads going about the removal of 1st ages, whether farming is appropriate, whether drop rates should be increased for t2 etc. This isn't about any of that, but about how "luck" seems to be behaving abnormally in terms of what rewards are delivered to which players.

    If the results of loot generation are truly random, it's true that you'd expect a few outliers to get high drops just as you'd expect a few outliers to walk away with not much, but the overwhelming majority of people should be in the middle - right? The problem is it sounds like, for whatever reason, there are more people BOTH at the very high end (multiple gold drops in a short period) and the low (many runs with nothing over a long period).

  9. #9
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    The Random Number Generator is a cruel mistress, and normally I'd just blame it on bad luck. BUT, after living through the "wi flag" of Asheron's Call, and the years it took Turbine to find and fix that bug, I'm beginning to believe that there's something not right in Middle Earth.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by ChromiteSwiftpaw View Post
    I did a count of all the 3 mans, 6 mans and raids from December til last night that I had done at level 85 in my Skirmish Stats Panel.

    I came up with about 812 boss kills. No Gold Items for me.

    A kinmate has already gotten about 3 or 4 of the same champ gold cloak. Another kinmate has gotten like 9-10 symbols or so.

    Something has to be seriously messed up for some characters. It really needs to be looked at.
    Same here, and I know of at least one kinnie who was complaining for getting two of the same gold class items meanwhile many of us don't even have one. I have not even gotten one of the horse-lord jewelry scrolls, and I, like many other players have been grinding the crafting instances many, many, many times.
    Last edited by Yadhel; Mar 20 2013 at 05:23 PM.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andorric View Post
    Just a thought for other people responding - we should probably keep this discussion limited to how the loot tables seem to play out for some characters versus others. There are already other threads going about the removal of 1st ages, whether farming is appropriate, whether drop rates should be increased for t2 etc. This isn't about any of that, but about how "luck" seems to be behaving abnormally in terms of what rewards are delivered to which players.
    Assuming this was aimed at me, the OP brought up the fact that the First Age drops were nerfed and how he/she didn't like grinding for seals to obtain them. I was just commenting on the entirety of the post, and tried to touch on as many things as I could. Why you think this would be outside the scope of discussion I"m not sure

  12. #12
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    You guys cannot use emotional responses of anecdotal evidence to explain mathematical random numbers.

    Running BFE 100 times is not a significant sample size to make a statistical argument about the health of the random number generator (RNG). That's not how randomness works. Lets say there is a 1/100 chance for a symbol to drop.

    You cannot then think something is wrong with the RNG if you run it 100 times and do not get a symbol. The randomness spreads across a distribution curve that looks something like a bell curve. Your outcome may fall anywhere on that curve. It is not always going to yield 1 symbol for every 100 runs.

    One player might do 300 runs and still not get one, but they might see 30 drop over that time. But there were 12 players in all those runs and each one randomly goes to one of the 12. The chances that it goes to you are still small.

    The fact that someone did 200 runs and won 4 symbols also does not suggest anything is strange with the RNG. The sample size is way too small. In order to make the claim that something is wrong one must run the instance 10000 times and look at the drops to see if they fall within expected distribution parameters of the Gaussian curve. Then if that one player is getting a distribution that does not fit the curve you will see it.

    Right now you are simply using anecdotes and emotions which create flaws in logic.

  13. #13
    Are you suggesting Turbine has hanged the RNG to specifically cater to certain players?

    I've heard it all. I could have sworn that only hard-core raiders are concerned with not only loot but also what other loot people have...
    Brittain. Fidel. KimJongIl.

  14. #14
    There are really too many aspects of this fiasco that irritate me. For starters, I'm of the hardcore mentality that first age symbols should have never dropped in T1 to begin with, so I don't like the fact that basically every Tom, Dick, and Casual is walking around with 1 or 2 first age legendary items. To compound my frustration, I am one of the few that logged 100+ raids and never won so much as a star-lit crystal let alone a symbol -- all while watching the same few individuals win symbol after symbol.

    To make matters worse, the individuals who were typically winning symbols were of the lowest common denominator. They were individuals repeatedly bombarded by catapults, or standing in front of trolls, or basically watching the fights as they lay dead contributing all but nothing to the success of the fight.

    But, what pisses me off more than anything is the way in which this was handled by Turbine. Okay, so maybe people are obtaining first ages too fast. I get that. I don't like it either. But, you don't take a month to address it. You don't let people farm it for a month and then shut it off. Because then you f$#% people like me. People who spent countless hours grinding and got the short side of the RNG.

    And, I don't mind grinding. I don't mind that I was unlucky. That's just how it goes. But, you got to at least give me the opportunity to change my luck. Can't just take it away like that. That's messed up. Now, all that time I spent grinding was just to chaperone a bunch of bads to the promise land. Ugh.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yadhel View Post
    I have been a player, and a vip/founder since 2007, a lot of changes have happened since that time, but anyways, I am one of those people who has run BFE about 165 times and never got an FA symbol. What I have seen, and many other people have noticed it too is that for some unknown reason the same people kept getting FAs and other goodies time, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again...

    Some people who have run this instance the same amount of times as I have, or even less have gotten from 6-10+ symbols. If this had been happening only once in a while I can see that happening and would attribute it to luck, but when it keeps happening time, and again, and again, and again and you keep seeing the same people getting the symbols it is obvious that something is very wrong. This is no luck, either the loot drop table was/is broken and not working properly, or something else is/was going on.

    Now, again, you have nerfed the drops to only T2 dropping FAs, and yeah you are going to say to farm some more to exchange at skirmish camps using seals for FA, but when you have to do about 200 runs to get 400 seals, and you can only get one FA this way and have 3+ level 85 toons, plus having to get the new armor also with seals, we are talking about way too much grinding.
    I'll concede that it is possible that the RNG is broken or something about your character disables ability to get first age. But if there is a 1% drop rate of the first ages, which is of the correct order from what I've seen (each person running has a 1% chance), then your odds of not getting a first age in 165 runs are (1-0.01)^165, or about 19%. 19% events happen all the time. Heck, you have a 5% chance to not get one in 300 runs at a 1% drop rate I feel your pain, I did fewer runs (maybe 25?) and saw about 4 first ages drop, didn't get one myself. But to be honest, if there weren't people who got multiples while some got none it wouldn't be random.

    BTW, there are probably easier ways to get seals than BoE. All the instances are might easy (school/lib give 3 each I think, and are incredibly easy).

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrittainTheCommie View Post
    Are you suggesting Turbine has hanged the RNG to specifically cater to certain players?
    Of course not. As another person posted above, games have had bugs like this before (wi flag in Asheron's call). They're not intentional, but sometimes they happen. And while it's true none of us have run 1000 runs, which would be insane, the odds SHOULD be so overwhelmingly against players getting multiple high-level drops quickly /repeatedly in a short timeframe that it would be a very remarkable and rare thing to see. When it DOES happen frequently, you raise your eyebrows and ask whether it shouldn't at least be glanced at.
    Last edited by Andorric; Mar 20 2013 at 05:07 PM.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrittainTheCommie View Post
    Are you suggesting Turbine has hanged the RNG to specifically cater to certain players?

    I've heard it all. I could have sworn that only hard-core raiders are concerned with not only loot but also what other loot people have...
    No. They are very clearly suggesting that there might be a bug involved.
    [charsig=http://lotrosigs.level3.turbine.com/2b2250000000dceda/01007/signature.png]undefined[/charsig]

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by BrittainTheCommie View Post
    Are you suggesting Turbine has hanged the RNG to specifically cater to certain players?

    I've heard it all. I could have sworn that only hard-core raiders are concerned with not only loot but also what other loot people have...
    Did you see me write that anywhere?... No, I clearly stated the loot drop system doesn't seem to be working as intended, or something else similar is happening.

    It could be that some players to this day have a bug which affects the RNG, or something like that. What is obvious is that the loot drop table system doesn't seem to work properly.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andorric View Post
    Of course not. As another person posted above, games have had bugs like this before (wi flag in Asheron's call). They're not intentional, but sometimes they happen. And while it's true none of us have run 1000 runs, which would be insane, the odds SHOULD be so overwhelmingly against players getting multiple high-level drops quickly /repeatedly in a short timeframe that it would be a very remarkable and rare thing to see. When it DOES happen frequently, you raise your eyebrows and ask whether it shouldn't at least be glanced at.
    Exactly. Statistically, it is possible for someone to loot a FA symbol in 4 straight runs, but with a 1% drop rate it would be an incredibly rare thing. Seeing it happen once was incredible, seeing it happen twice (two different people) in less than a week and a half makes me think something isn't right.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by enginekid View Post
    You guys cannot use emotional responses of anecdotal evidence to explain mathematical random numbers.

    Running BFE 100 times is not a significant sample size to make a statistical argument about the health of the random number generator (RNG). That's not how randomness works. Lets say there is a 1/100 chance for a symbol to drop.
    ...
    I disagree with you, even in real life where there are millions upon millions more people than are playing this game, only a very few are so lucky that for example they win the lotto multiple times. At least in the server I am playing, Nimrodel, several people are being extremely lucky.

    Running BFE 165 times or so is not the same as running it 1000 times yes, but when you see ONLY the same people getting FAs and most of the good loot over and over meanwhile everyone else gets mostly bounties and some relics is a clear indication something is not right.

    You don't have to run BFE 1,000 times to see this.

  21. #21
    The only way I can imagine that there would be some bias would be if Turbine were dumb enough to seed their random number with some derviative or element of character data. That's a simple enough question for people to ask the developers in the Dev Chat tomorrow: Do you seed your RNG with any element of character data?

    I think people are just succumbing to a common logical fallacy however...

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic
    Adaaon (Minstrel), Gwydionn (Hunter), Tarrann (Burglar)
    [url]http://thenoldor.guildlaunch.com[/url]

  22. #22
    Well I got a 1st age on my very first Flight raid, then on the same night on my very first BoE raid (haven't farmed the instances at all... alliance was there for the very first time)... yet I've never seen a gold class item or a gold crafting recipe. So.. who knows. :P
    [url]http://wanderingthroughdigitalworlds.wordpress.com/[/url]

  23. #23
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    seeding a pseudo-random number generator with something such as a character ID would not be surprising, although it is certainly a lazy way of doing it. speaking as a developer who has taken the lazy way out when i could get away with it, my guess is that some combination of character ID and the current time are used as the inputs.
    [charsig=http://lotrosigs.level3.turbine.com/082070000000d123b/01008/signature.png]undefined[/charsig]
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  24. #24
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    Completed one T2 CM Smaug run since the patch. No First Age....not encouraging and yet strangely familiar.

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vehdren View Post
    Completed one T2 CM Smaug run since the patch. No First Age....not encouraging and yet strangely familiar.
    Sounds just like when they nerfed the loot in Barad Guldur.
    Chromite (Hunter) - Grumbletocks (Guardian) on Landroval, Appendage (Hunter) on Brandywine

 

 
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