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Thread: No criticals

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    6

    No criticals

    I'm having the hardest time getting criticals. I currently have a bronze smithing hammer equipped, plus brimstone which gives my metalworker 51% critical chance. Yet, I have been unable to create any critical item today. Is anybody else having similar issues? I've made 10 items today and none have been critical. I don't know if something is wrong, or I am just having rotten luck currently.

    Thanks!

  2. #2
    Probably bad luck. Though I must say I cooked about 500 foods in past few days with 73% crit chance and got about 60% crit results, so something does seem off. But my sample is probably too small to count.
    [charsig=http://lotrosigs.level3.turbine.com/222190000000ae313/01008/signature.png]undefined[/charsig]

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Landroval
    Posts
    1,166
    Statistics, probability, sample size, luck. See the first link in my "sig."

    ____________________
    Crit crafting & the RNG | Dumb noob things we've done in LotRO...
    "Be not so eager to advance that you fail to experience the moment, in life and in all things." -Deluros, Rivendell
    legendary: adj.
    1. Gilded (having a pleasing or showy appearance that conceals something of little worth)
    2. Having an appearance of grandeur that obfuscates by complexity and arbitrariness
    3. Disposable

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    6
    I finally got some criticals. So I think you are correct and I'm just getting bad luck. I'd say I've had 3 crits in quite a large number of tries (over 20 at this point). So it still seems fairly low, but what can ya do; right?

  5. #5
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Posts
    472
    LOL

    3 crits out of twenty is not bad.
    A 51% crit chance means you have a 51% chance each try not over all.
    The ring resets each try the previous ones have nothing to do with the current try.
    If your thinking your supposed to get 50 out of 100 tries you are wrong.
    Probability is per craft not total numbers of items.
    I do not know what I want I must consult with Floon who will tell me.Turbine reduced aggro range.Noticed too many players run away from mobs.Wonder how many were escaping unwanted XP gain.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    6
    Quote Originally Posted by John_Webb View Post
    LOL

    3 crits out of twenty is not bad.
    A 51% crit chance means you have a 51% chance each try not over all.
    The ring resets each try the previous ones have nothing to do with the current try.
    If your thinking your supposed to get 50 out of 100 tries you are wrong.
    Probability is per craft not total numbers of items.
    Yes, 3 out of 20 isn't so bad. However, previously I have had MUCH better luck. I've gone 10 for 10 on many occasions. That was with a character on another server that I no longer play though. So when I was getting such low results with this one it just seemed off and I wanted to ask if others saw it before I delved deeper into it.

    Also, I know it isn't 50/100 with a 50% crit chance. Just was odd to me that I was coming in on the short end of the % each time. It seems this one character has horrible luck while crafting (this has been an occurrence over several days, just when it happened again today I decided to post). Hopefully my luck will turn around.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Landroval
    Posts
    1,166
    Quote Originally Posted by Dolafow View Post
    I finally got some criticals. So I think you are correct and I'm just getting bad luck. I'd say I've had 3 crits in quite a large number of tries (over 20 at this point). So it still seems fairly low, but what can ya do; right?
    And just to be clear, since you haven't checked the link on my sig, 20 is definitely not a large number by a long shot.

    Sample sizes for the recorded (not "feels like maybe about") experiments were 1000 to over 3000 items crafted. They were on target with less than 1% difference. Human memory is faulty and biased as well.

    You just have to have faith that the RNG follows math principles. This means the Law of Large Numbers. It'll work out.

    ____________________
    Crit crafting & the RNG | Dumb noob things we've done in LotRO...
    "Be not so eager to advance that you fail to experience the moment, in life and in all things." -Deluros, Rivendell
    legendary: adj.
    1. Gilded (having a pleasing or showy appearance that conceals something of little worth)
    2. Having an appearance of grandeur that obfuscates by complexity and arbitrariness
    3. Disposable

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    6
    Quote Originally Posted by Trilwych View Post
    And just to be clear, since you haven't checked the link on my sig, 20 is definitely not a large number by a long shot.

    Sample sizes for the recorded (not "feels like maybe about") experiments were 1000 to over 3000 items crafted. They were on target with less than 1% difference. Human memory is faulty and biased as well.

    You just have to have faith that the RNG follows math principles. This means the Law of Large Numbers. It'll work out.

    ____________________
    Crit crafting & the RNG | Dumb noob things we've done in LotRO...
    "Be not so eager to advance that you fail to experience the moment, in life and in all things." -Deluros, Rivendell
    legendary: adj.
    1. Gilded (having a pleasing or showy appearance that conceals something of little worth)
    2. Having an appearance of grandeur that obfuscates by complexity and arbitrariness
    3. Disposable
    I did check your link, that is some really good information. I think what this boils down to is I went from a character who was extremely lucky in his crafting to one who is extremely unlucky in his crafting (over their small sample sizes). So it just seemed like something was off. Thanks for the information!

 

 

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