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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Posts
    11

    Numerical analysis of Wood and Ore Node drops (including Tarnished Crests)

    **Update** 12-10-12
    I currently have info for 5000 nodes. I have had 69 Tarnished Crest drops in that time.

    I've been doing my share of Wood/Ore Node farming so far in RoR, and I decided to start chat-logging and keeping track of exactly what I've been picking up. I've been keeping a running total of exactly how many and what type of mats I have been getting from what type of node. So I crunched the numbers, and thought I'd share my results with the community. If someone else has already posted this type of info, let me know.

    Some info about my farming method:
    *All my farming has only been done running a large circuit around one particaluar zone in RoR. (I have not included data from Crafting Instances, for example)
    *I have NOT been wearing Erebrandir's Horseshoe.
    *I am an explorer so I farm Ore and Wood nodes at the same time. Therefore my findings are based off of Wood and Ore nodes, but NOT Scholar nodes. However, I would guess that scholar nodes would see a similar set of numbers.
    *I have included the % of Rich/Heavy to Regular nodes I get. I assume this % may vary by area or method of farming.


    THE NUMBERS:
    # of Total Nodes farmed........................ .............................. .5000
    # of Regular Oak Branch Nodes......................... ......................2315
    # of Heavy Oak Branch Nodes .............................. .................252
    # of Regular Riddermark Deposit Nodes......................... ............2188
    # of Rich Riddermark Deposit Nodes......................... ................245

    Logs of Oak Wood (from Regular Nodes)........................ ...........4611
    Logs of Oak Wood (from Heavy Nodes)........................ .............1353
    Oak Sapwood Braches (from Regular Nodes)........................ ......837
    Oak Sapwood Bracnhes (from Heavy Nodes)........................ ......247

    Chunks of Low-grade Riddermark Ore (from Regular Nodes)...........4242
    Chunks of Low-grade Riddermark Ore (from Rich Nodes)................1208
    Chunks of High-grade Riddermark Ore (from Regular Nodes)...........320
    Chunks of High-grade Riddermark Ore (from Righ Nodes)...............221
    Red Agates (from Regular Nodes)........................ ....................439
    Red Agates (from Rich Nodes)........................ .........................128

    Tarnished Crests of Rohan (from Regular Oak Branch Nodes).........26
    Tarnished Crests of Rohan (from Heavy Oak Branch Nodes)...........15
    Tarnished Crests of Rohan (from Regular Riddermark Deposits).......17
    Tarnished Crests of Rohan (from Rich Riddermark Deposites).........11
    Total Tarnished Crests of Rohan......................... ....................69


    THE ANALYSIS:
    Wood Nodes:
    Avg # Logs of Oak Wood from Regular Wood Nodes......................... ...1.992
    Avg # Sapwood Branches from Regular Wood Nodes......................... ..0..362
    Avg # Logs of Oak Wood from Heavy Wood Nodes......................... ....5.369
    Avg # Sapwood Branches from Heavy Wood Nodes......................... ...0.980

    Ore Nodes:
    Avg # Low-grade Riddermark Ore from Regular Ore Nodes....................1.939
    Avg # High-grade Riddermark Ore from Regular Ore Nodes....................0.146
    Avg # Red Agates from Regular Ore Nodes......................... ..............0.201
    Avg # Low-grade Riddermark Ore from Rich Ore Nodes........................4 .931
    Avg # High-grade Riddermark Ore from Rich Ore Nodes........................0 .902
    Avg # Red Agates from Rich Ore Nodes......................... ..................0.522

    Percentage of Nodes that are Heavy/Rich.......................... ..............11.037

    % chance of Regular Node dropping a Tarnished Crest of Rohan............0.955
    Avg # of Regular Nodes to farm before getting a Crest........................5 .231

    % chance of Heavy/Rich Node dropping a Tarnished Crest of Rohan.......104.721
    Avg # of Heavy/Rich Nodes to farm before getting a Crest...................91.115

    % chance of any Node (assuming the above Heavy/Rich Node
    percentage) that you'll get a Crest......................... ........................1.381
    Avg # of any nodes to farm before getting a crest......................... ....72.464


    SHORT ANALYSIS:
    Regular Nodes drop a Crest ~1% of the time.
    Heavy/Rich Nodes drop a Crest ~5% of the time.


    Conclusions:
    *You will not see these averages or percentages on a node-by-node basis. These are averaged from thousands of nodes. For example I have found Tarnished Crests of Rohan on back-to-back nodes, and I've also gone hundreds of nodes between Crests.
    *Numbers for Tarnished Crests of Rohan are not going to be as accurate, because of the relatively tiny sample size.


    I plan to update this post every so often as my sample group grows thereby gaining a more accurate picture of things.

    Any comments/feedback would be great.
    Last edited by Ravenborne; Dec 10 2012 at 11:41 AM.

  2. #2
    Awesome. It validate what I was feeling but it is really nice to put that with number more than gutts!

    +rep

  3. #3
    also +rep. Thanks for the data. Makes me feel a bit better than I haven't found ANY crests yet from prospecting...

  4. #4
    hmm...very interesting. i guess ill count myself lucky that ive picked up 15 crests from approx. 500 total ore/wood nodes

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Posts
    6
    Interesting. I been keeping a log myself and I have noticed that the percentage drop rate on crests from all nodes has went down a bit since December, especially in ore nodes. I also have seen a higher percentage of crests from wood nodes as opposed to ore nodes overall but the spread difference has been growing of late. I however have also noticed a much higher percentage of crest drops at normal server light population times, like 3 to 6 AM.

    I am beginning to theorize that there is an increased chance of a crest or other loot dropping the longer a node has remained un-harvested as I have also noticed a lack of competition for wood nodes compared to ore nodes so I theorize the wood nodes are staying up longer.

    Lastly over the last two or three weeks I have seen another pattern developing where I have not looted a crest from the Wold, Norcrofts or Entwash at all but have been getting all of my crests from Sutcrofts (not counting Hytbolt dailies).

    The Laws of programmed probabilities and all that ya know.

 

 

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