I tried to figure out the numbers for this d****d quest.
I thought there are two ways of programming this quest:
1) The probability is equal for each tier.
2) The probability varies from tier to tier.
I counted 23 tries at the moment.
I got
Tier 1: 167 good, 10 bad fish
Tier 2: 94 good, 6 bad fish
Tier 3: 22 good, 6 bad fish
Tier 4: 1 good, 1 bad fish
Tier 5: 0 good, 0 bad fish
case 1):
284 good fish, 23 bad fish (no surprise, I did not finish that quest), could conclude to a roughly 7.5% chance fishing something unwanted
the probability finishing 50 casts in a row is about 2%.
Since not many characters have finished this quest, this seems quite high
case 2)
Tier 1: 167 good, 10 bad fish, 5.65% chance to fail each cast, 55.9026% chance to survive 10 casts
Tier 2: 94 good, 6 bad fish, 6.00% chance to fail each cast, 30.1100% chance to suvive 20 casts
Tier 3: 22 good, 6 bad fish, 21.43% chance to fail each cast, 2.7000% chance to survive 30 casts
Tier 4: 1 good, 1 bad fish, 50.00% chance to fail each cast, 0.0026% chance to survive 40 casts
Tier 5: 0 good, 0 bad fish, 100.00% chance to fail each cast, 0.0000% chance to survive 50 casts
All of the above value are my own records, some tries were not recorded. If there is a trick, completing this quest, I would like to know it, since I wasted much time on it
The fishing skill seems to have no effect on this quest, I have 200 fishing and failed on cast #4, and fishing 30 and got 25.
All in all this quest is very time consuming and frustrating. I would like to know, how many characters completed this quest worldwide.
Last edited by MandravalGalabian; Sep 10 2013 at 07:33 AM.
Well, the quest is titled "Fishy, Very Fishy" after all....
(For those not sufficently familiar with English the word "fishy" can mean "suspicious, questionable")
I think the probability of finishing the quest is best described as
Low, Very Low.
I think the probability also relies on placement. Last year I noticed that few spots have drastically higher probability to get a good catch. Hint: I am usually the only one standing in those spots. Everyone else is no where's close to where I stand.
Why am I not giving away these locations? Just like in irl fishing, if everyone fishes there, the probability of catching what you want decreases.
Don't follow the crowd, find a spot where no one is and go for it.
P.S. My two tries this year (baby to blame for low number) were 46/50 and 38/50 towards completion. Will be giving it another try soon.
Newest poll results in 36 tries.
- Tier 1: 255 good, 16 bad fish
- Tier 2: 138 good, 9 bad fish
- Tier 3: 45 good, 10 bad fish
- Tier 4: 1 good, 1 bad fish
- Tier 5: 0 good, 0 bad fish
case 1)
439 good fish, 36 bad fish, equals 7.5789% chance breaking quest each cast
Probability finishing all 50 casts in a row: 1.9433%
case 2)
- Tier 1: 255 good, 16 bad fish, 5.9041% chance to fail each cast, 54.4138% chance to survive 10 casts
- Tier 2: 138 good, 9 bad fish, 6.1224% chance to fail each cast, 28.9285% chance to survive 20 casts
- Tier 3: 45 good, 10 bad fish, 18.1818% chance to fail each cast, 3.8889% chance to survive 30 casts
- Tier 4: 1 good, 1 bad fish, 50.0000% chance to fail each cast, 0.0038% chance to survive 40 casts
- Tier 5: 0 good, 0 bad fish, 99.9900% chance to fail each cast, 0.0000% chance to survive 50 casts
After two days fishing some updated result.
Newest poll results in 63 tries.
- Tier 1: 469 good, 25 bad fish
- Tier 2: 243 good, 20 bad fish
- Tier 3: 89 good, 15 bad fish
- Tier 4: 8 good, 3 bad fish
- Tier 5: 0 good, 0 bad fish
case 1)
809 good fish, 63 bad fish, equals 7.2248% chance breaking quest each cast
Probability finishing all 50 casts in a row: 2.3529%
case 2)
- Tier 1: 469 good, 25 bad fish, 5.0607% chance to fail each cast, 59.4921% chance to survive 10 casts
- Tier 2: 243 good, 20 bad fish, 7.6046% chance to fail each cast, 26.9752% chance to survive 20 casts
- Tier 3: 89 good, 15 bad fish, 14.4231% chance to fail each cast, 5.6824% chance to survive 30 casts
- Tier 4: 8 good, 3 bad fish, 27.2727% chance to fail each cast, 0.2352% chance to survive 40 casts
- Tier 5: 0 good, 0 bad fish, 99.9900% chance to fail each cast, 0.0000% chance to survive 50 casts
Assuming, my next try would be a success, the probalilities would change as follows:
Code:Hypothetical results in 64 tries. - Tier 1: 479 good, 25 bad fish - Tier 2: 253 good, 20 bad fish - Tier 3: 99 good, 15 bad fish - Tier 4: 18 good, 3 bad fish - Tier 5: 10 good, 0 bad fish case 1) 859 good fish, 63 bad fish, equals 6.8330% chance breaking quest each cast Probability finishing all 50 casts in a row: 2.9048% case 2) - Tier 1: 479 good, 25 bad fish, 4.9603% chance to fail each cast, 60.1243% chance to survive 10 casts - Tier 2: 253 good, 20 bad fish, 7.3260% chance to fail each cast, 28.0950% chance to survive 20 casts - Tier 3: 99 good, 15 bad fish, 13.1579% chance to fail each cast, 6.8538% chance to survive 30 casts - Tier 4: 18 good, 3 bad fish, 14.2857% chance to fail each cast, 1.4671% chance to survive 40 casts - Tier 5: 10 good, 0 bad fish, 0.0000% chance to fail each cast, 1.4671% chance to survive 50 casts
Newest poll results in 98 tries.
- Tier 1: 742 good, 38 bad fish
- Tier 2: 364 good, 37 bad fish
- Tier 3: 106 good, 20 bad fish
- Tier 4: 8 good, 3 bad fish
- Tier 5: 0 good, 0 bad fish
case 1)
1220 good fish, 98 bad fish, equals 7.4355% chance breaking quest each cast
Probability finishing all 50 casts in a row: 2.1000%
case 2)
- Tier 1: 742 good, 38 bad fish, 4.8718% chance to fail each cast, 60.6866% chance to survive 10 casts
- Tier 2: 364 good, 37 bad fish, 9.2269% chance to fail each cast, 23.0496% chance to survive 20 casts
- Tier 3: 106 good, 20 bad fish, 15.8730% chance to fail each cast, 4.0928% chance to survive 30 casts
- Tier 4: 8 good, 3 bad fish, 27.2727% chance to fail each cast, 0.1694% chance to survive 40 casts
- Tier 5: 0 good, 0 bad fish, 99.9900% chance to fail each cast, 0.0000% chance to survive 50 casts
I will update my statistic after the end of the farmer's faire.
Honestly, I think Turbine should change that quest, either lowering the fail-chance, or introduce steps, so you don't have to restart from scratch, lower the chances, if you fished enough fishes, allow to fish more than one bad fish, etc. Something should be done so that quest is finishable, which is in my opinion virtually impossible.
Here my final numbers for Farmers Faire 2013:
Newest poll results in 138 tries.
- Tier 1: 1046 good, 53 bad fish
- Tier 2: 497 good, 56 bad fish
- Tier 3: 122 good, 26 bad fish
- Tier 4: 8 good, 3 bad fish
- Tier 5: 0 good, 0 bad fish
case 1)
1673 good fish, 138 bad fish, equals 7.6201% chance breaking quest each cast
Probability finishing all 50 casts in a row: 1.9005%
case 2)
- Tier 1: 1046 good, 53 bad fish, 4.8226% chance to fail each cast, 61.0014% chance to survive 10 casts
- Tier 2: 497 good, 56 bad fish, 10.1266% chance to fail each cast, 20.9726% chance to survive 20 casts
- Tier 3: 122 good, 26 bad fish, 17.5676% chance to fail each cast, 3.0383% chance to survive 30 casts
- Tier 4: 8 good, 3 bad fish, 27.2727% chance to fail each cast, 0.1258% chance to survive 40 casts
- Tier 5: 0 good, 0 bad fish, 99.9900% chance to fail each cast, 0.0000% chance to survive 50 casts
So I advice anyone not to start this quest, it is very annoying.
In total I fished 1801 objects, which approximating each catch to 10 seconds is 18010 seconds, i.e. ~300 minutes or 5 hours completely wasted. My best try was 34 good fishes.
This quest should be improved, either by:
- removing the fail cooldown (which will not make the quest possible)
- chance the probability
>assumed probabilities of 5/10/15/25/50% would result in an overall probability succeeding this quest of 0.00022602843691258993 %- introduce steps, so if you made 10 fishes, you never have to catch them again (would prevent fish-farming
>even if they are 5/10/15/20/25% the overall chance is: 0.02485208945934268% (sums up to 0.2969488492851967% for 14 tries you have over the whole faire)
>changing the probalities to 1/2/3/4/5% would result in a 21.69094278748693% chance succeeding this quest
- allow to fish more bad fish (which could be against the intention of this quest)
Last edited by MandravalGalabian; Sep 19 2013 at 08:16 PM.
And if we calculate the odds at 10,20,30,40,50 instead.
Then if 10 million players try, then there is a 5% chance that *one* of them gets the title.
or, if you prefer... if 200.000.000 people try, then on average, one should get the title each day.
If you try once each day, and do so for 100 million days, or 273972 days... you have a 50/50 chance of getting the title.
1:90 = 0,3486 (.9^10)
2:80 = 0,1073 (.8^10)
3:70 = 0,0282 (.7^10)
4:60 = 0,0060 (.6^10)
5:50 = 0,0009 (.5^10)
Multiplied for a 0.000000005695 or 0.0000005695%
Mind you, actual numbers are different... rounding small numbers like this makes a huge impact.
Oh, and:
1 = 0.99999999...
Because:
x = 0.99999999...
10x = 9.99999999...
10x-x = 9.99999999...-x
9x = 9
x = 1
so 1=0.99999999...
Math is fun :-)
May I ask, why should I use numbers different from those I acquired from observation?
They may vary with each try, but they are around 5%,10%,20%,30%,??% failing (last step I have no data)
My excact numbers will follow when the festival is over, and I will bug it (a quest which cannot be accomplished, is a bug IMHO)
The chance is a bit better, but ridiculously low. Being struck by lightning seem to have better odds.
I even tried different positions, used the horseshoe, made no difference (since I just did about 10 fishing sessions per day, we should not rely on it)
I did many session at the same spot (the fishing net near the quest-giver) and I got the bad fish somewhere between fish#1 and #34 (even on the first try)
Possible improvements for this quest could be:
- use an internal counter to decrease the odds for the bad fish (e.g. odds for the easy fish are: 5%-0.1%per easy fish caught in previous runs), so doing this quest would increase your odds to finish it.
- could the fish in the inventory/bag and credit them (e.g. if I have 10 easy fish in inventory/bag, I start with the Tier 2-fish)
Here my final numbers for Farmers Faire 2014:
Newest poll results in 252 tries.
- Tier 1: 1939 good, 97 bad fish, 4,7642% chance to fail each cast, 61,3763% chance to survive 10 casts
- Tier 2: 858 good, 104 bad fish, 10,8108% chance to fail each cast, 19,5489% chance to survive 20 casts
- Tier 3: 180 good, 47 bad fish, 20,7048% chance to fail each cast, 1,9213% chance to survive 30 casts
- Tier 4: 9 good, 4 bad fish, 30,7692% chance to fail each cast, 0,0486% chance to survive 40 casts
- Tier 5: 0 good, 0 bad fish, 99.9900% chance to fail each cast, 0.0000% chance to survive 50 casts
So I advice anyone not to start this quest, it is very annoying.
In total I fished 3238 objects, which approximating each catch to 30 seconds is 971400 seconds, i.e. ~1619 minutes or ~27 hours completely wasted. My best try was 34 good fishes.
This quest should be improved, either by:
- removing the fail cooldown (which will not make the quest possible)
- chance the probability
>assumed probabilities of 5/10/15/25/50% would result in an overall probability succeeding this quest of 0.00022602843691258993 %- introduce steps, so if you made 10 fishes, you never have to catch them again (would prevent fish-farming
>even if they are 5/10/15/20/25% the overall chance is: 0.02485208945934268% (sums up to 0.2969488492851967% for 14 tries you have over the whole faire)
>changing the probalities to 1/2/3/4/5% would result in a 21.69094278748693% chance succeeding this quest
>use an internal counter to decrease the odds for the bad fish (e.g. odds for the easy fish are: 5%-0.1%per easy fish caught in previous runs), so doing this quest would increase your odds to finish it.
> credit the fish in the inventory/bag (e.g. if I have 10 easy fish in inventory/bag, I start with the Tier 2-fish)
starting probability for all tiers are set to 50%
every good catch of a fish reduces the probability for the bad fish by 3/2/1/1/1 %
so if you do the quest and do your first cast, the probability for the bad fish is 50%.
the first success reduces the bad fish probability to 47%, after 17 successful easy fishes (which cannot be accomplished in one session, even if you are lucky) you will have no chance to fail on easy fishes.
I hope you get the idea. (You could use 50-(fishes of the appropriate tier in inventory) as probability, just an idea)
- allow to fish more bad fish (which could be against the intention of this quest)[/QUOTE]
even if I personally like the idea of an internal counter, I could understand that it would need to some additional work, changing the overall probability seems the easiest way to improve this quest.
As said: 1/2/3/4/5% fail chance would chance the probabilty to about 20% which seems fair, something around the calculated 0.0002% is right frustrating
PS: this assumes, there is no secret trick to identify the bad fish of manipulate the probability
PPS: I would like to know if there is someone, who managed to catch all 50 fishes
Last edited by MandravalGalabian; Sep 19 2014 at 08:11 PM.
By now it should be obvious to everybody that the chances of actually completing this quest are extremely small at best.
BUT keep in mind that all the fishes caught can be bartered for Farmer's Faire Tokens (which can in turn be bartered for various stuff.)
Therefore I think that it is a mistake to think of it as a quest that cannot realistically be completed (even though it is exactly that).
It is better to think of it as just an extra way of obtaining tokens - one that you might even get a title from if you are extremely lucky.
Personally I do not use this quest for tokens...
I got
1939 Tier1 fishes (may be exchanged for ~390 tokens)
858 Tier 2 (~215 Tokens)
180 Tier 3 (60 Tokens)
9 Tier 4 (~5 Tokens)
0 Tier 5 ( 0 Tokens)
252 bad fish (cannot remember exchange rate, but, let's assume they ae 1:1) 252 Tokens
So I made 922 Tokens in 27 hours play time. (~27 Tokens/hour)
Doing eggs & mushrooms I do about 50 Tokens in 15 minutes (~200 Tokens/hour)
So fishing is really for the tokens
I admit it is a nice bonus, but it is not the best way, getting tokens.
Another frustrating farmers faire past and here the numbers for this year:
- Tier of the fish
- # of fishes in the current streak (apparently none, since the quest is not active any more)
- # of good fishes in total this year for this tier
- # of bad fishes in total this year while trying this tier
- probability to catch the bad fish during current tier (basically #4 divided by (#3+#4))
- probability to survive current tier, based on #5
- # of good fishes in total over all years for this tier
- # of bad fishes in total over all years while trying this tier
- probability to catch the bad fish during current tier (basically #8 divided by (#7+#8))
- probability to survive current tier, based on #9
- # of good fishes in total up to current year (current excluded) for this tier
- # of bad fishes in total up to current year (current excluded) while trying this tier
- probability to catch the bad fish during current tier (basically #12 divided by (#11+#12))
- probability to survive current tier, based on #13
As you can see, I tried this quest quite some time and I never got near the end. The number seem to be o.k. since I never got to tier 5 (which is according to tool-tip a 50% chance in each catch to fail (which would be successful in 1 out of 1024 cases))
So, Turbine, please change this!
I suggest additional 5 deeds, one for each tier, which reduce the fail chance to nearly 0% when completed. Each deed will require 50 fishes of the tier to complete. So after fishing 50 easy fish, you will never fail on tier 1.
That would make that quest completeable, but a lot of work.
For the tokens (in my former post, the conversion was wrong), using current numbers:
3902 tier 1 converted to 2340 tokens
1739 tier 2 converted to 1302 tokens
317 tier 3 converted to 315 tokens
11 tier 4 converted to 15 tokens
0 tier 5 converted to 0 tokens
521 bad fishes converted to 312 tokens
so these are 4284 tokens in ~54 hours (~79 tokens/hour)
Last edited by MandravalGalabian; Oct 01 2015 at 08:29 AM.
You won't get the title and neither will anyone else. Just ignore it and consider it a daily quest that awards you a random number of tokens.
Another frustrating farmers faire past and here the numbers for this year:
2015:
2016:
- Tier of the fish
- # of fishes in the current streak (apparently none, since the quest is not active any more)
- # of good fishes in total this year for this tier
- # of bad fishes in total this year while trying this tier
- probability to catch the bad fish during current tier (basically #4 divided by (#3+#4))
- probability to survive current tier, based on #5
- # of good fishes in total over all years for this tier
- # of bad fishes in total over all years while trying this tier
- probability to catch the bad fish during current tier (basically #8 divided by (#7+#8))
- probability to survive current tier, based on #9
- # of good fishes in total up to current year (current excluded) for this tier
- # of bad fishes in total up to current year (current excluded) while trying this tier
- probability to catch the bad fish during current tier (basically #12 divided by (#11+#12))
- probability to survive current tier, based on #13
As you can see, I tried this quest quite some time and I never got near the end. The number seem to be o.k. since I never got to tier 5 (which is according to tool-tip a 50% chance in each catch to fail (which would be successful in 1 out of 1024 cases))
I also changed some of my output just concerning the number of digits for the numbers.
So, Turbine, please change this!
I suggest additional 5 deeds, one for each tier, which reduce the fail chance to nearly 0% when completed. Each deed will require 50 fishes of the tier to complete. So after fishing 50 easy fish, you will never fail on tier 1.
That would make that quest completeable, but a lot of work.