Across a time-cumulative, large sample (numbering in the thousands at minimum), the actual accumulated crit-vs-normal crafting results will align with the crafter’s advertised crit rate.
METHODS & MATERIALS:
A combination of Farmer/Cook professions was determined to be the most efficient method to test a large number of crafting rolls. The cumulative sample types for the level 43 supreme master cook would consist of-
- Cups of Winter Barley Flour
- Balls of Dough
The intended sample size was 3000, divided across the above sample types and crafted across three days in 9 total crafting sessions. The actual total sample size was 3497 across 11 sessions (yeah, I lied; explanation at the bottom). The cook had 17% native crit chance between mastery (5%) and the superior cooking supplies (12%). The cook toon was level 43 at the time of this writing and thus could only equip that level of tool. No optional critical ingredients nor Scholar-created crafting scrolls were used. All results were logged by placing the /Standard output channel into its own tab. Results were parsed in Excel 2010 and summarily graphed in pretty colors.
I'll let the results speak for themselves and not bother with analysis and conclusion.
My farmer toon crafted 3000 winter barley across three days (1000 per day); costs were not counted. My cook bought with kinship discount the following materials for a 3-day sample spread:
- 750 bottles of water
- 750 drops of fine clover honey
- 750 pinches of mixed spice
After the initial 3000 cumulative rolls were completed, additional materials were purchased to convert the remainder ingredients produced by critical success from the previous crafting sessions.
Cooking costs for three days’ worth of materials covering 3000 items, not including repairs: 4g 814s 50c
Cooking costs for the bonus round, not including repairs: 1g 605s 88c
Total costs for experiment, not including repairs or porting: 6g 420s 38c
- RNG: The computerized random number generator behaves, theoretically, like a die. With a 17% crit rate, this is like taking a 100-sided die and rolling it. If the die lands on 1-17, you get a critical success. If the die lands on 18-100, then you get a normal result. Thus, even with a known percentage “crit rate,” the actual results are still “random.”
- Channel (channeling): A timed act with the blue timer bar (such as certain class skills, or mapping, or in this case creating a single craft item)
- Session: A crafting session is defined here as an uninterrupted series of “make all” channeling.
- Roll: A “roll” here is defined as a single recipe channeling act that creates a final product(s), with the RNG applying at the end of the channel.
- Crit rate: The crit rate indicates the probability for the crafter to produce a critical success result for every individual crafting roll. The crit rate does not apply to a total cumulative sample per se. With an 83% crit rate, it is possible to fail a dozen times in a row; the probability of that happening is low, but not impossible.
- Ingredient: In the Cooking profession, an “ingredient” is a crafted component necessary to complete other cook recipes to produce edible food items. In this case, both “Cup of Winter Barley Flour” and “Ball of Dough” are ingredients falling under my cook’s 17% crit rate.
- Trail Food: In the Cooking profession, Trail Food is produced from recipes that require various ingredients and a campfire. Trail Food typically gives the consumer a specific stat buff for a 20- or 30-minute length of time. In this case, Honey-cakes were chosen as the testing product.
Both crafting window and vendor windows were open during every session; the crafting window’s selection was set to whatever item I was making at the time. Superior cooking supplies were repaired whenever they fell to around 40-45/60 without interrupting a crafting session.* The purpose for repairing in this manner was twofold: first to ensure that the cook would not go “afk” and possibly log off after a long period of alt-tabbed crafting, and second to ensure the tools wouldn’t break and inadvertently stop a session.
*(This could be a bug; vendor interaction including buy/sell/repair is possible after a crit during a single crafting session.)
Additional areas to be addressed:
Streak results. I'm really not inclined to look at my logs again for these (and I wouldn't know what to do with it), but... Now, how can I attach a ZIP of logs here. Hmm.
As a side note, I now have way too many Honey-cakes. Anyone want to buy them...?
Edit: Mediafire link for ZIP of raw logs
Basic streak data (also added to the Lorebook article; lost table formatting here)----
Here are some basic streak results; I don't know of any way to graph this sort of thing, especially with a data set around 3500. Be aware that I'm counting a "streak" as any identical, adjacent cell, so even a 2-string is a streak here. Keep in mind that my crafter's crit chance was 17%, so getting something like 4 crits in a row on that low probability is quite unlikely. And yet it happened thrice. Therefore, the inverse is true too--with a low failure probability (say 17% which is a 83% crit rate), a crafter can still end up failing a bunch of times in a row.
Noncrit streak lengths and number per:
Crit streak lengths and number per: