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  1. #1

    sigh lottery hates me or what?

    I know it may sound a bit funny but I'm actually curious since I haven't won lottery for quite a while (around 1 month) and also never actually won the lottery of the stelwart. What is are the chances of winning the lottery those days anyways?I used to win before but now it seems I'm hated by the lottery.

    PS: I entered stelwart's lottery since I was lvl 58,never lost an entry
    Last edited by thekane14; Feb 20 2011 at 10:25 PM.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    3,679

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by thekane14 View Post
    I know it may sound a bit funny but I'm actually curious since I haven't won lottery for quite a while (around 1 month) and also never actually won the lottery of the stelwart. What is are the chances of winning the lottery those days anyways?I used to win before but now it seems I'm hated by the lottery.

    PS: I entered stelwart's lottery since I was lvl 58,never lost an entry
    It's random and nobody knows. Looks like you had a winning streak and now you're seeing something more "normal".
    <<Insert clever sig here>>

  3. #3

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by Shukar View Post
    It's random and nobody knows. Looks like you had a winning streak and now you're seeing something more "normal".
    well before I won junk really. Lotteries lvl 20 and usual. Never actually won one of the ''big'' ones so wouldn't the % balance it?

  4. #4

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    It's random. You should never expect to win when you gamble, because you can always hit an unlucky streak.

    Beyond that, because it's a lottery, it depends on the number of people who enter.

    When they first started the lottery back up, my guys on Imladris would win a lot, especially my high level character. Presumably because at the time, there weren't many high level characters on that server, and the number of winners per server is fixed.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Gallifrey. I need a Jelly Baby.
    Posts
    19,518

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    You and me both. I have 11 alts that have not missed any lotteries and I won once 2 weeks ago on one toon.
    Life is not a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside, totally worn out & proclaiming "WOW, what a ride!"
    Continuing the never ending battle to keep Lobelia Sackville-Baggins in check

  6. #6

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    /fold.....
    [B]Magnarr [/B] - Lvl 85 Champion
    Leader, United Races (Vilya server)
    Cofounder and Leader, Vilya Alliance coalition of kinships
    [url]www.UnitedRaces.net[/url] [url]www.VilyaAlliance.com[/url]

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
    Posts
    74

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    I know the feeling, I won one of the lotteries pretty much straight away, but since then my only success has been in the semi-infamous 'Silver Token' lottery that happened after the agents were removed.
    [charsig=http://lotrosigs.level3.turbine.com/0e215000000004b73/01008/signature.png]undefined[/charsig]

  8. #8

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    You're not alone. Lately it seems like I'm losing a lot more than winning. Sucks.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Posts
    25

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    My level 3 Guardian just won one... the only lottery i have won so far.
    [charsig=http://lotrosigs.level3.turbine.com/0d2160000000501d2/01008/signature.png]undefined[/charsig]

  10. #10

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    The flash lotteries had pretty great win rates, but they seem to be toned way back in number now. I've never won a regular lottery on any of my 10. People play power-ball their whole lives and never win : D

    I've often wondered if the lottery system is a true lottery or just a chance generation, like each entrant has a 1/10000 chance to win. No way to confirm, but food for thought.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    SW Missouri
    Posts
    4,293

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    The lotteries only have so many prizes/ winners of each type per server. In the past they were limited to only those who were active subs on each server. Now with f2p they are open to VIP (formerly the only type that could enter) and all of the past players, free players, etc. That means a heck of a lot more people entering the lotteries than in the past.

    I do wonder, as well, if they've lowered the numbers of prizes given. Outside of a couple of the flash lotteries (which are the easiest to win since the fewest numbers of people enter them) I haven't won a regular lottery in quite a while. Well, til a couple of days ago when my main won a steed of night- first win for him in quite a while, and it was nice since he's my horse collector.

    Otherwise I feel your pain.
    Firefoot: Elendale (hunter) Galorlas (champ) Grimlaff (warden) Corny (warg)

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    1,229

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    I haven't won anything since the 4th of Feb (Ancient Gold tokens bah). The new lotteries seem to be much reduced in number of prizes, that or way more people are playing.
    Last edited by japridemor; Feb 21 2011 at 10:45 AM. Reason: Ennui
    [charsig=http://lotrosigs.level3.turbine.com/13213010000002c0f/signature.png]Ungolmoth[/charsig]
    [FONT="Lucida Sans Unicode"][SIZE="2"][COLOR="yellow"]Echthalion - 75 WaRden [R1][/COLOR] / [COLOR=GRAY]Kivech - Level 75 Hunter [R6][/COLOR] / [COLOR=GRAY]Fafnhir- Level 75 Champion [R2][/COLOR] / [COLOR=GRAY]Aranlith - Level 68 Minstrel [R1][/COLOR] / [COLOR=GRAY]Mormegel - Level 66 Burglar [R2][/COLOR] / [COLOR=GRAY]Arvegel - Level 66 Captain [R1][/COLOR] / [COLOR=GRAY]Djormur - Level 66 Sith Lord [R0][/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Lakefront
    Posts
    484

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    The lottery hates me too. I've won twice on two separate toons and didn't get a prize in the mail either time.

    O.o

  14. #14
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    17

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Well, with the huge influx of Free players-the chances are only getting worse unless LOTRO decides to increase the number of winners.

    But then again, it is a free lottery -so can't complain to much when you get a free surprise gift. But it sure was nice when you got a gift about once a month

  15. #15
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    153

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Yeah have to agree I used to win on a regular at least 1 every week on all my toons. Mind you that is over 9. best part of my last win was winning the seasonal tokens I couldn't turn in. Sigh well guess I can keep my fingers crossed and hope to win something soon. I am starting to wonder if there is an issue with entries being placed. Or we are just having so really bad luck. "Breaks Out Horse shoe"

  16. #16

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    ok so I'm not the only one who stopped winning anything then. before feb it wasn't too hard to win even if most of the stuff was junk, since like 17 january I stopped winning any lvl 30-40 prize, and in feb I stopped winning all so wasn't sure how exactly it works.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    234

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Well, you could be standing next to a winner who's 92 years old and won 30 million dollars in real life and be really angry.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    865

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Yeah, tokens that I can't barter is about it for me. I'd love to see a listing of how many prizes are available. I enter every major lottery and all the minor ones I catch, and I have a considerable number of toons on two accounts. Must be an awful low number for such bad odds.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    2

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    K, so, I haven't won a lottery in over 6 months or something. Kinnies are winning multiple lotteries of the Stalwart ...
    Other people are obviously winning judging by the number of t8s on the AH for a 70g buyout.

    Just putting this out there, the lotteries are really terrorbad imo. I spend my time entering them on the website / whatever, for absolutely no reward. Lotteries were better when even the continual losers (like myself (three 65s (soon to be four))) were given consolation prizes. Anything would be better than having the same kinnie win back to back Lotteries of the Stalwart on his 2 65s, 3 times in a row and then a steed of night.

    Just wow.

    Honestly, if I were a winner, I may not be posting. But then again, I would at least have sympathy for the people who continuously win nothing, and there would be some other poor git posting exactly this. Consolation prizes, more prizes and / or more variety in the winners please ...

    Bad, bad, bad - SUPA <3 U still though Turbine

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Marlborough, MA
    Posts
    61

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    I would like to say that while the wins are few, I have no intention to stop playing the lottery. You never know when you will come up big with something like the Steed of the Night in your mail.

    That said, other than pie, tokens and fireworks, I have won 6 times since 1/1/11 - 3 low level, 3 high level. This is the total of my 2 accounts with 9 toons each. Of my winnings I can say that most of it could have been made by crafting in less time than entering the lottery if you use a 2 minutes per entry average. I figure that as 2 min x 3 days a week (MWF) x 2 accounts x 8 weeks = 96 minutes entering lotteries.

    My numbers are just thrown out there, maybe it only takes a minute and a half, maybe 2-1/2. I a probably coming out ahead and there is always that chance of winning big...

    The only thing I can say as 100% truth, is that my Lotro lottery winnings far exceed my Powerball winnings which remain a 0
    Gilderbrand - Guard, Darok - Champ, Lendelorn - Hunter, Kerilon - Minstrel
    Annabella - Burg, Giloren - LM, Melandi - RK, Kyrstan - Captain & Gilabera - Beorning

    Co-Leader, Swifty and Hammo

  21. #21

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    The way it looks, you have a better chance of being run over by a fully electric car. I, too, haven't won anything since those useless token ones on 2/2. And I still have tokens. I enter 5 chars each tie. So it seems like they lowered the chances of winning to the level the NJ governer did for school funding.

    I live in NJ so i can say that. :P

  22. #22
    Sapience is offline Former Community Manager & Harbinger of Soon
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Posts
    9,519

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    The number of winners is any given lottery hasn't changed. In fact a few of them have seen the number of winners increased.


    Keep in mind that 'lottery' isn't quite the right word for the system. It's much closer to a raffle where there are a set number of prizes and a potentially unlimited number of entries.

    Also, there is a unique pool of prizes per server. So entering 100 characters across 15 servers doesn't always improve your chances. Because if we're giving away say, 25 Steeds per server, your chances are going to be based on number of entries you had per server, not overall, and the total number of entries from that server.

    This is also why we have the repeating lotteries broken out by level ranges. It increases your chances. Each level range also has its own set number of winners per server, but limits the entries to a smaller pool (and allows us to put in prizes that are level appropriate).

    "Entering a lottery" is also a bit misleading. When you enter the regularly scheduled lotteries you are really entering many lotteries. 4 lotteries per server X 15 servers = 60 individual lotteries, each with a unique set of prizes.
    Assuming each lottery had 10 winners (they don't. they have more), that would make 40 winners per world x 15 worlds = 600 winners.

    Also, a 'winner' is a character, not an account. So it is entirely possible to win multiple times even within the same lottery.

    Put very simply, your odds of winning are directly related to the number of characters entered and the total number of prizes availalbe in any given lottery.
    Last edited by Sapience; Feb 28 2011 at 12:13 PM.

  23. #23

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Thanks for the info on the mechanics.

    As an avid lottery player, I'll add my anecdotal evidence to the lack of winning. Previously my toons won "often" but not "always" now my toons rarely win anything.

    My last winnings were: the Token Lottery Ended 02/07/2011 and the Flash Lottery Ended 02/14/2011 12:30PM EST where everyone won something.

    note: I almost never get in on the Flash lotteries because I don't Tweet so it was just a fluke that I was signed up for that one.

    And for more anecdotal evidence: I have 3 accounts with a total of @13 toons and none of them have won anything past the above dates either.
    Whoever says “I” creates the “you.” Such is the trap of every conscience. The “I” signifies both solitude and rejection of solitude. Words name things and then replace them. Whoever says tomorrow, denies it. Tomorrow exists only for him who does not seek it. And yesterday? Yesterday is Kolvillàg: a name to forget, a word already forgotten.

    The Oath: A Novel by Elie Wiesel

  24. #24

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Add me to the skeptical list. I used to win on a regular basis, at least a couple of times a month but since they have come back I have won almost nothing despite entering on a regular basis.

  25. #25
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    2,800

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    No reason to be skeptical, folks, it is simple math. If there are X number of prizes available per server with Y number of players signing up for the Lottery/Raffle to win said prizes, you have Z percentage chance to win one of said prizes. So the number of players signing up for the lotteries directly effects your chance to win the set number of prizes.

    When we were winning more prizes in the lottery (prior to F2P starting), there were much less players per server. Now there are a lot more people playing the game and also playing the Lotteries, meaning we have a lower chance of winning.

 

 
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