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  1. #26

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sapience View Post
    This is also why we have the repeating lotteries broken out by level ranges. It increases your chances. Each level range also has its own set number of winners per server, but limits the entries to a smaller pool (and allows us to put in prizes that are level appropriate).
    This is too bad that in fact this does not work. Characters Data are not updated. So the range is never the good one applied to our character.


    But whatever i love the game. So i am a winner anyway
    And while i think about it, after all i met my husband on Asheron's call (France-Canada). We married on this game, i moved one year later to Canada, we played then AC2, and then Lotro : we married for real 3 years ago.
    So I won the best. Thank you Turbine

  2. #27
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    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    When the lotteries started up again, I won relatively frequently.

    When the first flash lotteries were done, I won a few.

    When they promoted lotteries and more started entering, I stopped winning as frequently. In fact, the last one I won was the one they rewarded to every entrant.

    When they broadly promoted their Twitter account for flash lotteries, so anyone with text messaging on their phone would enter, I stopped winning those too.

    Odds are always better when you are competing against fewer people (well, not in a true lottery, where odds are fixed against you, but this isn't an actual lottery, as Sapience pointed out).



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  3. #28
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    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by BHTrellis View Post
    The way it looks, you have a better chance of being run over by a fully electric car. I, too, haven't won anything since those useless token ones on 2/2. And I still have tokens. I enter 5 chars each tie. So it seems like they lowered the chances of winning to the level the NJ governer did for school funding.

    I live in NJ so i can say that. :P
    Hehe I disagree but nice analogy
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  4. #29
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    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sapience View Post
    The number of winners is any given lottery hasn't changed. In fact a few of them have seen the number of winners increased.


    Keep in mind that 'lottery' isn't quite the right word for the system. It's much closer to a raffle where there are a set number of prizes and a potentially unlimited number of entries.

    Also, there is a unique pool of prizes per server. So entering 100 characters across 15 servers doesn't always improve your chances. Because if we're giving away say, 25 Steeds per server, your chances are going to be based on number of entries you had per server, not overall, and the total number of entries from that server.

    This is also why we have the repeating lotteries broken out by level ranges. It increases your chances. Each level range also has its own set number of winners per server, but limits the entries to a smaller pool (and allows us to put in prizes that are level appropriate).

    "Entering a lottery" is also a bit misleading. When you enter the regularly scheduled lotteries you are really entering many lotteries. 4 lotteries per server X 15 servers = 60 individual lotteries, ach with a unique set of prizes.
    Assuming each lottery had 10 winners (they don't. they have more), that would make 40 winners per world x 15 worlds = 600 winners.

    Also, a 'winner' is a character, not an account. So it is entirely possible to win multiple times even within the same lottery.
    Wow, thanks for explaining all that! As usual, Sapience is awesome
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  5. #30

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Well the as the stats didn't or may not have changed with the addition of
    F2P+Tweeters perhaps the Lottery Master can up the % some to accomodate the influx of new lottery folks.

    I'm guessing that having N number of winners is good but having T(otal)-N losers is bad when T(otal) gets Large. So therefore N could be increased but you will still have loads of losers.

    ex1: 100 entries - 10 winners = 90 losers
    ex2: 10000 entries - 10 winners = 9990 losers
    ex3: 10000 entries - 100 winners = 9900 losers

    So even scaling up doesn't necessarily make the 9K losers happier. But that's how Lotteries work - GREED IN PROGRESS!

    (I'm a greedy person so I WANT to WIN!)
    Last edited by SabrielofLorien; Feb 26 2011 at 04:25 PM.
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  6. #31
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    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    I never have won one before. I have been entering them for 2 months now, and still nothing.
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  7. #32
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    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    it's the success of LOTRO that is making you win less often.
    more characters in the lottery lowers your chances to win, unless the prizes per server are increased in proportion to the number of characters per server who actually enter.
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  8. #33
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    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    I enter 60 characters (over 4 accounts) in every lotto, I just one last week, and 1 the week before, and no normal lotteries the week before that. Did win a good number of flash lotteries, including the everyone wins on 2/14.

    So a normal person with the same luck as me with 5 character per lotto would win about once per every 12 weeks, or once a quarter, or 1 in 180 entries, less than a half of 1%.
    Last edited by Ascus2; Feb 26 2011 at 07:49 PM.

  9. #34
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    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    More people entering the lotteries than at the start plus nice scripts flowing around that enter you automatically (= equals never missing any regular lottery and seldom a flash lottery) = less repeat wins.

    I'm not complaining, without checking I believe I won something typically on a two week basis - spread over 3 different lotto tiers with 8 chars one server (plus one char on a different server).

    If all your characters participate in the same lottery on the same server in a level range that is predominant - I would assume on older servers the end levels - then your chances will be lower than in a different tier where less people play (and participate).

    Am I making sense?

  10. #35
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    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sapience View Post
    The number of winners is any given lottery hasn't changed. In fact a few of them have seen the number of winners increased.


    Keep in mind that 'lottery' isn't quite the right word for the system. It's much closer to a raffle where there are a set number of prizes and a potentially unlimited number of entries.

    Also, there is a unique pool of prizes per server. So entering 100 characters across 15 servers doesn't always improve your chances. Because if we're giving away say, 25 Steeds per server, your chances are going to be based on number of entries you had per server, not overall, and the total number of entries from that server.

    This is also why we have the repeating lotteries broken out by level ranges. It increases your chances. Each level range also has its own set number of winners per server, but limits the entries to a smaller pool (and allows us to put in prizes that are level appropriate).

    "Entering a lottery" is also a bit misleading. When you enter the regularly scheduled lotteries you are really entering many lotteries. 4 lotteries per server X 15 servers = 60 individual lotteries, each with a unique set of prizes.
    Assuming each lottery had 10 winners (they don't. they have more), that would make 40 winners per world x 15 worlds = 600 winners.

    Also, a 'winner' is a character, not an account. So it is entirely possible to win multiple times even within the same lottery.

    Put very simply, your odds of winning are directly related to the number of characters entered and the total number of prizes availalbe in any given lottery.
    Would it be possible to find out what the odds where on a prior scheduled lottery? Are the odds 1:10 or 1:1,000,000... currently there is no way of telling, and its not looking good. I am running about 1:360 for past month.

  11. #36
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    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ascus2 View Post
    Would it be possible to find out what the odds where on a prior scheduled lottery? Are the odds 1:10 or 1:1,000,000... currently there is no way of telling, and its not looking good. I am running about 1:360 for past month.
    How could they tell the odds? If there is a specific pool of prizes (in Sapience example 25 steeds per server) then the odds depend on how many people participate in the lottery.

    It would be interesting to know though if the pool of prizes is adjusted after x amount of lotteries to ensure a certain odd based on previous participation.

  12. #37
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    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rouven View Post
    How could they tell the odds? If there is a specific pool of prizes (in Sapience example 25 steeds per server) then the odds depend on how many people participate in the lottery.

    It would be interesting to know though if the pool of prizes is adjusted after x amount of lotteries to ensure a certain odd based on previous participation.
    I would hope they could tell the entries of a "prior" lottery to figure out the odds. I can see them not giving the number of entries for competitive reasons, it would be nice to know the number of prizes going into a lottery since its a fixed. Giving the same numbers per server is a nice idea since it would give a little encouragement for people to start on less populated servers.

  13. #38
    Sapience is offline Former Community Manager & Harbinger of Soon
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    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rouven View Post
    How could they tell the odds? If there is a specific pool of prizes (in Sapience example 25 steeds per server) then the odds depend on how many people participate in the lottery.

    It would be interesting to know though if the pool of prizes is adjusted after x amount of lotteries to ensure a certain odd based on previous participation.
    We have adjusted the number of prizes per lottery up over time as participation has increased.

    What makes the odds hard to judge is the simple fact that today we may see X number of characters entered and tomorrow there may be X times 100 characters entered even though the prizes are the same for both lotteries.

  14. #39
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    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sapience View Post
    We have adjusted the number of prizes per lottery up over time as participation has increased.

    What makes the odds hard to judge is the simple fact that today we may see X number of characters entered and tomorrow there may be X times 100 characters entered even though the prizes are the same for both lotteries.
    I can see how the numbers will wildly fluctuate each time, and since its set up with a fixed number of prizes, you don't want a case like the 2/14 flash lotto where EVERYONE wins because of the low number of applicants compared to prizes. I sure players know that some special lotteries are long shots (Like stead of night, thanks for 25 per server, I was expecting 1). I would expect the odds to be about 1:60 (5 characters would get about 1 win a month) to keep interest.

    But from this comment it sounds like there is targeted win rate, any likelihood that can be shared? But I understand if it cannot.

  15. #40
    Sapience is offline Former Community Manager & Harbinger of Soon
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    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ascus2 View Post
    I can see how the numbers will wildly fluctuate each time, and since its set up with a fixed number of prizes, you don't want a case like the 2/14 flash lotto where EVERYONE wins because of the low number of applicants compared to prizes. I sure players know that some special lotteries are long shots (Like stead of night, thanks for 25 per server, I was expecting 1). I would expect the odds to be about 1:60 (5 characters would get about 1 win a month) to keep interest.

    But from this comment it sounds like there is targeted win rate, any likelihood that can be shared? But I understand if it cannot.
    it's not so much a targeted win rate as it is a question of what is being given out and how what is the value/cost of that. Not just in terms of LOTRO Store items that we hand out in the lottery but also in terms of server economies.

    I'll use the Symbol of Celebrimbor as an example. If we did a lottery once a week that gave out 100 of these per server to level 65 players, two things would happen.

    • Rarity would drop (and thus the AH price would fall through the floor)
    • Some number of raiders would quit (either the game or raiding) because this was now a trash item and easier to get in the lottery than from the raid.

    Similar situations arise when giving out crafted items, especially if they are guild items.

    The opposite is true with things like Ale, Wine, Barrow Cheese, and Fireworks. They have little or no value in game, so giving them away by the cart load has little impact to the economy, gameplay, or crafters.

  16. #41
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    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sapience View Post
    it's not so much a targeted win rate as it is a question of what is being given out and how what is the value/cost of that. Not just in terms of LOTRO Store items that we hand out in the lottery but also in terms of server economies.

    I'll use the Symbol of Celebrimbor as an example. If we did a lottery once a week that gave out 100 of these per server to level 65 players, two things would happen.

    • Rarity would drop (and thus the AH price would fall through the floor)
    • Some number of raiders would quit (either the game or raiding) because this was now a trash item and easier to get in the lottery than from the raid.

    Similar situations arise when giving out crafted items, especially if they are guild items.

    The opposite is true with things like Ale, Wine, Barrow Cheese, and Fireworks. They have little or no value in game, so giving them away by the cart load has little impact to the economy, gameplay, or crafters.
    I definitely see the issue with too common of good items, I have enough level 14 lotto winnings to outfit every one of my characters, I do not think I will ever use all the level 15 power potions I have won. I see those have toned down a little, which is good.

    The symbols and fused relics where insanely valuable and and easily could upset the power. Since I don't play my level 65's ( Stop when I get there for level increase ) those went to the AH. I was surprised that these ever went in the lottery

    Frankly I like the things like the token lotteries, spring hats, outfits, festival items and such much better than then Big Ticket items so often. Don't get me wrong, I do like the Big ticket item lotteries, 3 a week generous, once a week would do, just wish there were more of the low value specialty item lotteries to keep us logging in and winning.

    Still have the question of what were the odds of winning of a typical lottery in the past week.

  17. #42
    Sapience is offline Former Community Manager & Harbinger of Soon
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    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ascus2 View Post
    wish there were more of the low value specialty item lotteries to keep us logging in and winning.
    Good feedback, I'll keep that in mind.


    We don't publish details in terms of odds and total winners for a number of reasons, but having just looked at the overall stats, they're a lot better than I think most would believe.

  18. #43
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    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sapience View Post
    We don't publish details in terms of odds and total winners for a number of reasons, but having just looked at the overall stats, they're a lot better than I think most would believe.
    Fair enough, I completely understand why you would not give odds AND total winners, that could give away active sub numbers, which Turbine is very protective. I was just looking for odds like (1:234), which would not give that away.

    But thanks for the posts Sapience. That was my last request on that subject. I have and will enjoyed the lotteries, low winning percentage or not.

  19. #44
    Sapience is offline Former Community Manager & Harbinger of Soon
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    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ascus2 View Post
    I was just looking for odds like (1:234), which would not give that away.

    But thanks for the posts Sapience. That was my last request on that subject. I have and will enjoyed the lotteries, low winning percentage or not.
    No worries. I'll throw you a bone. They're MUCH better than your example. Better than twice as good (on average).

  20. #45
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    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Mh, in terms of the "complications" I could think of two things, perhaps not popular and definitely not re-inventing the wheel:

    1) limit the amount of characters per account that can participate in a certain lottery pool, let's say 3 characters, a pool would be like "regular lotteries" (all combined), "flash lotteries" and the odd "speciality lottery" - so we could enter the regular lotteries with 3 but we would have to decide which (in case we have more than 3 characters and over different levels) and we could still enter a flash lottery if it would come up.

    granted this would make it perhaps harder to predict the participating within the levels.

    2) change the prize-pool, instead of winning 4-5 items (money, token, consumable, cosmetic) have the all mighty RNG pick 2-3 out of those. could even be a predefined "value" and perhaps one time the prize only consists of a larger amount of gold (instead of afixed smaller amount) and the other time I win a larger stack of pots etc etc

    sorry I'm cut short here

  21. #46
    Sapience is offline Former Community Manager & Harbinger of Soon
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    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rouven View Post
    Mh, in terms of the "complications" I could think of two things, perhaps not popular and definitely not re-inventing the wheel:

    1) limit the amount of characters per account that can participate in a certain lottery pool, let's say 3 characters, a pool would be like "regular lotteries" (all combined), "flash lotteries" and the odd "speciality lottery" - so we could enter the regular lotteries with 3 but we would have to decide which (in case we have more than 3 characters and over different levels) and we could still enter a flash lottery if it would come up.

    granted this would make it perhaps harder to predict the participating within the levels.

    2) change the prize-pool, instead of winning 4-5 items (money, token, consumable, cosmetic) have the all mighty RNG pick 2-3 out of those. could even be a predefined "value" and perhaps one time the prize only consists of a larger amount of gold (instead of afixed smaller amount) and the other time I win a larger stack of pots etc etc

    sorry I'm cut short here

    #1 would actually require reinventing the wheel. The lottery system isn't built to do any of those things. it would be a ground up rewrite, and ultimately not practical.

    #2 - Long ago there was a RND option for prizes, but the system seemed to have an unnatural attachment to poison pots and cram. Seriously.

  22. #47
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    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sapience View Post
    #1 would actually require reinventing the wheel. The lottery system isn't built to do any of those things. it would be a ground up rewrite, and ultimately not practical.

    #2 - Long ago there was a RND option for prizes, but the system seemed to have an unnatural attachment to poison pots and cram. Seriously.
    I was a bit in a rush writing all this, so the wheel thing probably came out wrong. Just meant that I'm not presenting ueber-creative solutions.

    Well, it works the way it does, as I said earlier I'm not complaining

    Thanks for all the infos in this thread.

  23. #48

    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by BHTrellis View Post
    The way it looks, you have a better chance of being run over by a fully electric car. I, too, haven't won anything since those useless token ones on 2/2. And I still have tokens. I enter 5 chars each tie. So it seems like they lowered the chances of winning to the level the NJ governer did for school funding.

    I live in NJ so i can say that. :P
    Agree, with an observation.
    Correct me if I am wrong, but Free to Play, which I promote every time I can, did not start at the end of the Token lotteries. Like you, and several other posters, it is from then to now that I have seen the change. Out of the 50 some-odd toons we have on various accounts, NONE has won since the Feb 6 token lottery.

    Immediately previous to the token lotteries I often had 4 or 5 winning each week that I remembered to enter. For example between 1/19 and 1/26 I had 6 wins on this account alone. It is obvious to me that this recent apparent change has nothing to do with new players entering the game and everything to do with the mechanics of the lottery game being adjusted in some way, whether intentional or not.

    My suspicion (and my question), and it is just that!, is that known or unknown to the majority of staff, the odds were adjusted to account for the recent hours played on each toon, (although I will allow that Sapience mentioned that adjusting the lottery in certain ways would be difficult, so possibly this couldn't have occurred). I did notice someone saying recently that they had a message that a toon hadn't been played for a while and that it would need to be logged in to enter the lottery. It would be a very small leap from that to think that, if they were noting the last log in time for entering , that possibly the recent play time (or last log in time) was being considered in some way for your chance to win.

    I can see making this adjustment to keep those of us with dozens of dormant toons or inactive accounts from winning out of proportion to our current playtime, in a way that seems reasonable, but I would politely remind whoever it may concern ;p that we put in the playtime to get them to that level in the first place just like everyone else.

    ~thanks
    and please correct me, if you are certain my thinking is in error
    Last edited by Biddy; Mar 01 2011 at 02:32 AM.

  24. #49
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    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    Quote Originally Posted by Biddy View Post
    Agree, with an observation.
    Correct me if I am wrong, but Free to Play, which I promote every time I can, did not start at the end of the Token lotteries. Like you, and several other posters, it is from then to now that I have seen the change. Out of the 50 some-odd toons we have on various accounts, NONE has won since the Feb 6 token lottery.

    Immediately previous to the token lotteries I often had 4 or 5 winning each week that I remembered to enter. For example between 1/19 and 1/26 I had 6 wins on this account alone. It is obvious to me that this recent apparent change has nothing to do with new players entering the game and everything to do with the mechanics of the lottery game being adjusted in some way, whether intentional or not.

    My suspicion (and my question), and it is just that!, is that known or unknown to the majority of staff, the odds were adjusted to account for the recent hours played on each toon, (although I will allow that Sapience mentioned that adjusting the lottery in certain ways would be difficult, so possibly this couldn't have occurred). I did notice someone saying recently that they had a message that a toon hadn't been played for a while and that it would need to be logged in to enter the lottery. It would be a very small leap from that to think that, if they were noting the last log in time for entering , that possibly the recent play time (or last log in time) was being considered in some way for your chance to win.

    I can see making this adjustment to keep those of us with dozens of dormant toons or inactive accounts from winning out of proportion to our current playtime, in a way that seems reasonable, but I would politely remind whoever it may concern ;p that we put in the playtime to get them to that level in the first place just like everyone else.

    ~thanks
    and please correct me, if you are certain my thinking is in error
    One of the big differences is the appearance of the auto register script. That may may drastically increased the number of entries. If the number of prizes did not go up proportionally, the percent chance to win would drop significantly.

  25. #50
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    Re: sigh lottery hates me or what?

    There was a similar thread back on 1 Feb, and I posted the following, for those of you interested in odds. This is just an approximation of your odds:

    Here's the math behind winning (assuming an unbiased RNG):

    You'll have to make several reasonable assumptions.

    1. On your server, estimate the number of players.
    2. Out of that estimate, make an assumption about the percentage of those players who are entering the lotteries (on average). You can probably assume it is not much different than the percentage who participate in the forums, but you can safe-side that and assume double or even triple that amount.
    3. Make an assumption for how many characters each of these players has since every character is an entry.
    4. Calculate total number of competitors = your characters + estimate number of players on server x percent entering lottery x average number of characters per player
    5. Calculate your chance of winning any particular lottery = your characters / total number of competitors
    6. Calculate your chance of losing any particular lottery = 1 - your chance of winning any particular lottery
    7. Calculate the odds that you should have won at least one or more lottery with one of your characters since you started entering = 1 - your chance of losing^number of lotteries entered

    Example:

    1. Assume 10,000 players on Firefoot (I'm being generous to Turbine)
    2. Maybe 5% on Forums, so assume 10% play lottery
    3. Assume average of 4 characters per player
    4. With my ten characters, that's an average of 4010 competitors per lottery
    5. The probability of winning any one lottery on one of my characters is 0.002494
    6. The probability of losing any one lottery is 0.997506
    7. If 50 lotteries have been held, then the odds that I should have won at least one with one character is only 11.7%

    Math can be a dangerous thing...
    Plug in your own numbers. Keep in mind that:

    -- If you only have one or two characters, the odds are substantially less.
    -- If there are multiple lotteries at a time, the odds improve; simply increase the "number of lotteries" in step 7.
    -- If the percentage of players entering the lottery is substantially higher, the odds decrease significantly.

 

 
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